nickles

20 ms·

121.
by nickles 7y ago
> They are taxed as capital gains for recipients. No, ordinary dividends are taxed as income.
122.
by nickles 7y ago
This is where the analogy certainly gets stretched. The network and the registers are really both the exchange here. Equity trading only happens at a small number of venues (inclusive of OTC, dark pools, and internalizers probably not more
123.
by nickles 7y ago
> I don’t think I ever had to do two transactions in a minute. If the network only clears once a minute, you need to wait at least a minute for each person ahead of you in line at the store. Alternatively, you need to be willing to pay m
124.
by nickles 7y ago
> Pretty much everything at sub-second resolution is pointless. Should your credit card network only allow transactions once a minute? Price data comes from transactions (trades) as they occur. There’s more utility derived from a market
125.
by nickles 7y ago
> That is a pointless comparison. I was highlighting the difference between online advertising and financial markets. They operate at different scales. > That $107b was all revenue for somebody (Google, Facebook, etc), while the $145b
126.
by nickles 7y ago
Adding to this, HFT is a product of rule 612 of Reg NMS (the sub-penny rule). Markets are not allowed to show quotes in increments of less than $0.01 for most names. Since traders cannot compete on price, they have been forced to compete ex
127.
by nickles 7y ago
> Nanosecond pricing updates might be a little more than anybody needs That may be the case, but the 'problem' is caused because market makers aren't legally allowed to offer better prices than they might otherwise desire.
128.
by nickles 7y ago
> even every 1s. If we can do auctions for web ads, we can do auctions for the stock exchange. There was ~$107 billion in online advertising in 2018. There was ~$145 billion traded in Nasdaq listed equities yesterday . Global financial
129.
by nickles 7y ago
> pointless expenditure on an ultimately meaningless arms race What about price discovery is pointless? Would you prefer that prices update only once a day? Once a week? Once a month? Realtime pricing of securities and derivatives is cri
130.
by nickles 7y ago
> Not to mention that pegs always fail in the land of financial markets anyhow... In the context of Facebook being pegged to a basket of international currencies, the peg to each will need to be reevaluated frequently as the currencies f
131.
by nickles 7y ago
This talk from DEF CON goes into some of the potential risks of sharing DNA. In short, it conceivably opens a person to targeted attacks designed to recognize specific individuals, families, ethnicities, etc. [0] https://youtube.
132.
by nickles 7y ago
> The contention upthread was that we shouldn't use government spending for stimulus when monentary policy works better I actually disagreed with this assertion in another comment [0], so I think we're in agreement here. > m
133.
by nickles 7y ago
> And because of this we should drop this whole democracy thing ? Parliaments have shown plenty that if the need is high enough, action can be very quick indeed. You've constructed a straw man argument. Instead of advocating for el
134.
by nickles 7y ago
My understanding is that helicopter money expands a central bank’s balance sheet (irreversibly) whereas fiscal policy does not, but the distinction is murky when considering policy like tax rebates.
135.
by nickles 7y ago
> The Fed making mistakes doesn't mean the claim is wrong. I was trying to highlight that policy missteps are damaging and can occur with either monetary or fiscal policy. > My understanding was that QE helped, but IOER was a mis
136.
by nickles 7y ago
> Except it stops working when you can't go below 0? Central banks are able to utilize other policies (e.g. helicopter money via TLTROs) to provide economic stimulus at this level.
137.
by nickles 7y ago
> Because monetary policy is more effective than fiscal policy? It’s difficult to justify such a broad statement. Consider that the Fed likely deepened and lengthened the Great Recession by reducing the availability of liquid assets (QE)
138.
by nickles 7y ago
> But the same thing could be accomplished by a much more conventional means: taxation and public spending. * Such policy often comes with substantial lag times, as it is implemented via legislation. Monetary policy may be implemented mo
139.
by nickles 7y ago
I apologize for not being more specific, but that was deliberate. Please trust that there are very real phenomena that can be monetized. One example of a calendar effect that is likely not easily monetized is the 'Christmas effect&#x27
140.
by nickles 7y ago
> But since rates are currently just north of 2 percent, there's no room to maneuver. If a recession hits now, the Fed cannot drop rates 5 percentage points. They'll run out of ammunition at the zero lower bound. There's n
141.
by nickles 7y ago
> this recent yield inversion may not be related to growing risk of recession in the US It's been a reliable signal in the past, but perhaps this time is different. Interestingly, some economists postulate that such an inversion may
142.
by nickles 7y ago
> Other people's current predictions on this are all over the place and seem more dependent on what each author would prefer than neccessarily any reality. Expectations of Fed rate hikes and cuts are reflected in the fed funds futur
143.
by nickles 7y ago
> They’re graphing 10y-3mo here. Is that what you mean? Minus is not commutative. The synthetic instrument 3m-10y is referred to as a 'curve'. It can be denoted 3m-10y. Convention is such that the value of a curve is long dated
144.
by nickles 7y ago
> I think that means the negative difference between 10y and 3 mo would be decreased by the fed not reinventing in long term securities. When the value of the spread between a long dated (e.g. 10Y) and a short dated (e.g. 3m) instrument
145.
by nickles 7y ago
> They recently announced they would stop doing that. I'm aware. Markets are forward looking. As you can see, yields have dropped precipitously since the announcement, and the curve has flattened. This is consistent with expectati
146.
by nickles 7y ago
> How and to what degree has this impacted yields? Is it even possible to answer this question with certainty? To reduce its balance sheet, the Fed has rolled down assets, allowing them to mature. By choosing to not reinvest the principa
147.
by nickles 7y ago
If you purchase a 3m treasury bill, you will have to roll your capital into another in 3 months. If you expect the Fed to cut rates in the interim, you will receive a lower yield on that bill. The discount on the bill helps compensate for t
148.
by nickles 7y ago
> Short-term trading signals are systematically arb'ed away This isn't necessarily true. There are demonstrable, persistent calendar effects that can be reliably traded. Such trading can be thought of as a service being provide
149.
by nickles 7y ago
This signal is typically only indicative in the United States, as the Fed doesn't officially factor it into the decision making process. Other central banks consider it, so it does not seem to have the same predictive power. The treasu
150.
by nickles 7y ago
No, 3m-10Y is the best recession signal for the United States. [0] https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economi...

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