myrmidon

34 ms·

631.
by myrmidon 1y ago
> europe has the same "supermarket brands" of cheese that the US does. I'm not certain about your exact meaning, but I disagree here. Cheese availability in supermarkets is strongly regional even within Europe, and mos
632.
by myrmidon 1y ago
Yes, but those hand-crafted rules are just input data, they don't actually constrain the behavior, they are just an attempt. Similarly to how verbal instruction works with a child: You can tell it not to touch the hot stove, but the
633.
by myrmidon 1y ago
My point is that past expectations about AI where that it would be possible /most viable to set hard , explicit constraints on behavior, like how a stream of instructions constrains the behavior of a CPU. There simply IS no explic
634.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I think a big factor in Asimov's laws specifically being sidelined is that the whole process of building AI looks very different from what we pictured back then. Instead of us programming the AIs by feeding it lots of explicit hand-cra
635.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I'm not saying that this is NOT police state overreach, but the assumption that all (or even most) criminals practice good operational security still seems laughable to me. I think you are letting your ideological alignment (against su
636.
by myrmidon 1y ago
A valid point, but to me this sounds like you would want such a program to be a wealth redistribution program at the same time, and I believe trying to do that would just diminish the effectiveness (=> less panels built per spent tax dol
637.
by myrmidon 1y ago
Do you honestly believe that human minds won't be overtaken within the century? I'll concede that it might take even longer to get full artificial human capabilities (robust, selfrepairing, selfreplicating, adaptable), but the
638.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I'm very curious if there are any well-informed positive takes on Trumps climate policy. Personally, I believe even Biden-era efforts were insufficient; but all the common arguments to do less against climate change that I encounter
639.
by myrmidon 1y ago
You a re being very reductive in order to make your point, but thats fair enough, I don't entirely disagree. But I would like to point out that the situation is significantly less symmetrical than the picture you paint: Yes, lots of Is
640.
by myrmidon 1y ago
Worse efficiency, much higher (mechanical!) complexity, much more bespoke and slower to get installed. I honestly don't see this really taking off, batteries are too cheap already, people just haven't really realized yet. You can
641.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I think you are arguing against a strawman. No one is saying that trade makes war impossible-- but every bit of trade is an additional incentive to not start war, especially if it affects a broad slice of the population directly (=> th
642.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I don't think that is crazy at all, our whole system incentivizes corporate behavior exactly like this. From your tone I assume that you would expect Sig to come forward, analyze, discuss and hopefully solve these problems as soon as p
643.
by myrmidon 1y ago
Time dilation from general relativity is approximately gh/c^2 (1e-18 -ish), which is an order of magnitude bigger than the uncertainty on your clock frequency (1e-19 -ish). But you would need a more precise characterization of the cloc
644.
by myrmidon 1y ago
> Germany has been turning cheap gas from Russia into expensive cars, glass and chemicals for decades without me noticing that was all the deal was. You're overstating this a bit; there is a lot of coal in Europe (natural gas only g
645.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I don' much like this euphemism either, but there is at least one favorable aspect in my view: "Died by suicide" reads less accusatory to me, and I believe that is actually a good thing here. Too much focus is put on retroact
646.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I don't believe in world-war as byproduct of climate change yet. I think capability to wage war internationally will probably decrease thanks to climate change; it is much easier for a state to prevent the peasants from starving than
647.
by myrmidon 1y ago
> that when we do develop the tech sufficiently to be useful, if it's cheap enough to be profitable, nothing would seem to stop extraction. So CO2 goes down to, what, 300ppm? This is an extremely improbable scenario, for several r
648.
by myrmidon 1y ago
If you actually use captured carbon for something productive like synthetic fuel (where CO2 gets re-emitted) you are kinda ruining the point though. Thats what makes this even less attractive-- those plants are expensive to build and operat
649.
by myrmidon 1y ago
> How are you so confident that extinction is off the table? Because even the worst-case scenarios (=> think RCP8.5) are just not enough to get rid of us. I can totally see populous breadbasket states turning into unliveable deserts,
650.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I think 1.5°C is already basically impossible; scenarios between 2°C and 4°C by 2100 over pre-industrial levels seem achievable-- that would be a total remaining CO2 budget of ~3 Tera-tons of CO2 within 2100. That is an average of 4 tons of
651.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I highly doubt that we will have global negative emissions (CO2 capturing) within the next decades-- maybe by the end of the century. Even very rich nations have a handful of prototype plants for CO2 capture right now at best, and the budge
652.
by myrmidon 1y ago
> Federal government in US is failing along with the rest of large scale western style governments. They are too big, cost too much, and have too many fundamental structural deficiencies. How do you see those governments failing, and whe
653.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I think LLMs are much closer to grasping movement prediction than the cat is to learning english for what its worth. IMO "ability to communicate" is a somewhat fair proxy for intelligence (even if it does not capture all of an ani
654.
by myrmidon 1y ago
I'm not sure if popular models cheat at this, but if I ask for it (o3-mini) I get correct results/intermediate values (for 794206 * 43124, chosen randomly). I do suspect this is only achieveable because the model was specifically
655.
by myrmidon 1y ago
> The current generation of AI models will turn out to be essentially a dead end. It seems a matter of perspective to me whether you call it "dead end" or "stepping stone". To give some pause before dismissing the cur
656.
by myrmidon 1y ago
> oh well, we've tried bourgeois democracy and it was inevitably corrupted by capitalist interest This is not my point. I think most western democracies do exactly what voters want against climate change: Nothing that would cost e
657.
by myrmidon 1y ago
No. Just no. Nation-wise, all the biggest culprits (US/EU) and a good number of the biggest present and future contributors to climate change are democracies . You do not get to shift collective responsibility onto some "powers t
658.
by myrmidon 1y ago
Don't get me wrong, I'm not even disputing your main point-- I do agree that things have gotten better for the average American over the last decades. Though I still think that longer-term inflation adjustment (CPI based compariso
659.
by myrmidon 1y ago
Sure, but a median house cost 3.5 years of (median) income in 1985, nowadays its 6 . It sure is nice being able to afford tons of foreign-built electronic trash, but affording a home seems more relevant and important to me and by that me
660.
by myrmidon 1y ago
Sure, but how "heavy" is that redistribution though? Top 1% paying 30% of taxes sounds like a really rough deal for them at first, but if those 1%ers already own over 30% of your country in the first place (which is the case in

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