mturmon

6 ms·

31.
by mturmon 9mo ago
Thanks for contributing these insights. Having worked with hydrologists for 15 years or so -- water is complicated, and people who say there are simple solutions generally do not know the domain. A moment's reflection should make this
32.
by mturmon 9mo ago
Yeah, and with California's typical topography (relatively younger mountains), there's a lot of sediment at the ready than can fill dams and render them worse than useless -- i.e., costs money, loses capacity fast, alters river an
33.
by mturmon 9mo ago
Michelson interferometry is also used to measure the spatially-resolved velocity and magnetic field of the solar photosphere: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_Dynamics_Observatory -> Instruments
34.
by mturmon 10mo ago
For real: Earth science is complex. When you have domain experts literally saying the opposite of your guesses, in a section of an outreach webpage devoted to "Myths," reconsider your position. (Related, and profound apologies for
35.
by mturmon 10mo ago
I don't believe the video quite says this (I watched the relevant section). It's worth noting that they are mostly interested in critical phenomena in general, and earthquakes are kind of a drive-by application, treated along with
36.
by mturmon 10mo ago
I think you intended this to be a validation of the idea that small quakes relieve stress and therefore lower the chance of a large quake. The above link does not answer that question. It is relating stress release to "fault strength&q
37.
by mturmon 11mo ago
I agree with our assessment of Quanta. I used to enjoy reading their articles, but the clickbait title formula has put me off. Also their status as a mouthpiece of the Simons foundation grantees. I feel like I’m being a bit curmudgeonly, bu
38.
by mturmon 11mo ago
This reminds me of `PrSAT`, a satisfier for probabilistic statements. ("Does a distribution exist that satisfies the following constraints?"). See: https://fitelson.org/PrSAT/ , and the linked paper: https:&#
39.
by mturmon 11mo ago
Yeah, in 1988 the Internet appeared like a research network that connected universities. No money was directly at stake and the systems harmed didn't appear critical. Related to what Thomas says above, part of the response to the incid
40.
by mturmon 1y ago
Do you really think these cuts are done with the intent of positive effects on the space and earth science enterprise? The model was that NASA did stuff that was pathfinding, typically in response to science objectives, and that commercial
41.
by mturmon 1y ago
FTA, Michael Garcia, ex Hubble Project Scientist: >> What surprised me was that initial budget request, which basically said, we, America, are never going to launch another space telescope. We're going to turn off 95% of the ones
42.
by mturmon 1y ago
He had an incredible life and was such an original thinker. Just the list of people he knew (since childhood) is mind-blowing. I recommend his voluminous essay collection United States or the more personal Palimpsest .
43.
by mturmon 1y ago
And a large billboard blocking the view
44.
by mturmon 1y ago
There are straightforward emulation settings in which a trained emulator can be more accurate than a single forward run, even when both training and "single forward run" use the same accuracy settings. Suppose you emulate a forwar
45.
by mturmon 1y ago
Thanks for this. It goes back to the node connectivity graphs he shows just above that statement. He is thinking about a random choice among the 20 edges branching out from each vertex.
46.
by mturmon 1y ago
The apparent shift in strategy/philosophy away from releasing open models seems noteworthy, and might have caused confusion/dissent.
47.
by mturmon 1y ago
Postscript: looking at the lesswrong link referenced by the post above, you will notice that the “eyeball metric” density plots happen to be recentered and scaled so that they capture the mass of the density. This is the graphical counterpa
48.
by mturmon 1y ago
The article you link is not using the CLT correctly. The CLT gives a result about a recentered and rescaled version of the sum of iid variates. CLT does not give a result about the sum itself, and the article is invoking such a result in
49.
by mturmon 1y ago
Thanks for the link, it was very informative. I passed through the highly-irreproducible eras described in the section you link, and that you summarize in your last paragraph. There was so much different FP hardware, and so many different n
50.
by mturmon 1y ago
> it is amazing Indeed! The GRACE measurement of mass change is one of the more revolutionary advances in Earth science remote sensing in the last few decades. It has provided a unique and completely novel view of groundwater mass change
51.
by mturmon 1y ago
I was also pleased to see large deviations, although the lecture notes don’t actually define what a large deviation is. They do give an example of a Chernoff (exponential) bound for a sum of iid random variables. The bound of course has an
52.
by mturmon 1y ago
For reasons explained in the article, we are bad at estimating small probabilities. Similarly, we are bad at estimating small proportions ("easily shave 2%"). What is being claimed in the parentheses here is that there's a pr
53.
by mturmon 1y ago
I read TFA and looked over the PNAS article ( https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2500440122 ) it is based on. I believe the deep-ocean vents you mention are beside the point. The article is discussing the upwelli
54.
by mturmon 1y ago
"xkcd 927 Considered Harmful" ?
55.
by mturmon 1y ago
Fig 1 could use a rethink. It uses log scale, but the dynamic range of the y-axis is tiny, so the log transform isn't doing anything. It would be better shown as a table with 3 numbers. Or, maybe two columns, one for integral value and
56.
by mturmon 1y ago
not so good, see: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44190279
57.
by mturmon 1y ago
1mm at 1.36 km works out to about 150 milliarcsec (mas), if you're used to those units from astronomy contexts.
58.
by mturmon 1y ago
This is accurate.
59.
by mturmon 1y ago
This is incorrect. In his book on LaTeX, Leslie Lamport specifically says that he does not care how you pronounce it. (See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LaTeX#Pronouncing_and_writing_... ) Knuth, on the other hand
60.
by mturmon 1y ago
Related, my wife introduced me to "we'll burn that bridge when we get to it" -- I'm a fan

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