mrandish

19 ms·

241.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> they were going to watch films 10-12 hours a day, every day of the week. Impossible. A lot of these LLM demand scaling scenarios make broad "up and to the right" assumptions about things which in practice have finite limits.
242.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> What are the non-tech people in your life using AI for? Mostly asking random questions they used to search Google for. > next to Starbucks and avocado toast, is discretionary. Sure, but your description implies highly affluent, urba
243.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> doesn't this just mean that we expect the money to come from large enterprise users? Yes, if you agree that not enough consumers will value "smart paid chatbots" over dumb free chatbots at ~$20/mo, then, as you say,
244.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> a driving factor will likely be how good we can make models that are so small they use almost no compute. That will certainly help but it doesn't move the fundamental limit because resource efficiency is a cost driver not a demand
245.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> There will be new value created by these models which people are happy to pay for which simply did not exist at all before. True, but I think the GP's point was that what consumers will pay won't be nearly as profitable as wh
246.
by mrandish 5mo ago
If it's not, I'm struggling to come up with what would be.
247.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> what political struggle was behind that within Ferrari ... could be an indicator for internal disagreements. A while back I read a couple books on the history of Ferrari and came away with the clear sense that Enzo was one of those uni
248.
by mrandish 5mo ago
It bothers me when a new creative work tries to adopt a distinct historical style without understanding its form, structure, context, constraints and motivation. Without that understanding it's just derivative imitation which might evo
249.
by mrandish 5mo ago
As Yogi Berra famously said, "It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." But based on historical tech industry trends, a price increase in one component that's this rapid and extreme, is likely to even
250.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> What I did say is that in a hypothetical world where Apple did invest in their own fabs, they'd have much better access to memory and could be selling machines with vastly more memory than their competitors today. Okay, I understa
251.
by mrandish 5mo ago
I doubt it since many of the booster engines didn't seem to relight, the location of touchdown wasn't near any pre-positioned cameras (if there were any).
252.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> the 1541 floppy drive Ah, the legendary 1541. We used to joke it was the only floppy drive on any 8-bit micro that was actually slower than some dial-up modems. It wasn't actually slower, but it was really slow compared to most
253.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> that misses the point that Apple literally can't buy enough memory at any price. They can't buy enough today . I think I already explained this as well as I can in my second paragraph above. You seem to not be appreciating
254.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> a horrible person, ya know, just like Arthur C. Clarke and Isaac Asimov. > Can we move on? Indeed, I'd like to propose we collectively meta 'move on' from always being required to restate the well-known moral, ethic
255.
by mrandish 5mo ago
I think Woz is awesome! But... he did have the benefit of two strong examples of what NOT to do along with several days to think about it. It's to his credit that he understood and acted on it.
256.
by mrandish 5mo ago
Radio has an almost orthogonally inverse set of failure modes than internet streaming.
257.
by mrandish 5mo ago
The point of my GP post was that due to being one of the world's biggest and longest-term buyers, Apple is already paying very close to actual manufacturing costs + amortized capex because RAM is an undifferentiated commodity. Owning t
258.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> this revolutionary new application for memory people call AI. Most analysts think LLMs will elevate the long-term base RAM demand level. I mentioned 15-25% above prior projections without AI, which I think everyone agrees is highly l
259.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> Incorrect. Okay, you got me. I was reflecting the prudent way long-term players generally interpret the market. But from time to time external macro-economic and/or geopolitical factors may shift. Those changes may persist over ti
260.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> The first computer I ever used had 512K Mine had 4K of RAM and an 800 KHz CPU - and I was living in the future , man. No way I could use that much memory. After all I had to type in whatever program I wanted to run every time I turned
261.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> This has become like opec's best years Yes, except no DRAM maker is taking this as a signal to go deep into debt to double or triple capacity. It takes a minimum of 3+ years to dramatically increase capacity and no one expects thi
262.
by mrandish 5mo ago
Yes, that's what I meant by "Mainstream DRAM". The basic parameters are specified by standards like JEDEC, so the most common types can be used in many systems thus reach high volumes. This can be less true for specialized RA
263.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> mandatory remediations for past transgressions. Weirdly, this can actually cause companies that didn't do the bad thing (bribes, etc) to voluntarily, proactively adopt widespread, comprehensive, mandatory, highly-audited train
264.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> it seems they'd be a prime candidate to spin up their own memory fab. While Apple et al certainly have the money to tilt up their own fab, they're savvy enough to understand the memory market's long history of constant
265.
by mrandish 5mo ago
The deep dive on memory market dynamics and the LLM bubble distortion is great. But another cause of declining smart phone sales is simply that the devices have matured and aren't improving at nearly the same rate. From 2008 to around
266.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> We're testing new ad formats... Time to update my uBO filters and tweak my custom CSS for Google properties (which is mostly 'display: none !important;').
267.
by mrandish 5mo ago
I guess it was supposed to be a humorous aside, but it wasn't actually helpful because the relevant issue is when you pull more total amps from a single circuit than it's fused for (usually 15 or 20 amps in U.S. residences). The f
268.
by mrandish 5mo ago
Ironically, for-profit Chinese companies have released far more Open AI than OpenAI. And they may be a key reason the for-profit OpenAI remains non-profitable. It's worth noting I suspect a key reason Chinese companies are doing this i
269.
by mrandish 5mo ago
I had a non-tech acquaintance mention he got called to his son's school because his kid "got busted" with "a hacking device". Based my friend's vague description, it must have been a Flipper Zero. The kid was
270.
by mrandish 5mo ago
> to help us polish RK3576 support Having a few various RPi's (as one does), when they've been out of stock, I've looked into the huge variety of similar SBCs (OrangePi, etc) which can be even faster, with more ports and

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