moultano

17 ms·

181.
by moultano 6y ago
That sounds more like doing challenge trials for an ebola vaccine, for which I'd expect you'd get very few volunteers. Still though, if there are people willing to risk sacrificing themselves, and the information would definitely
182.
by moultano 6y ago
A traditional trial requires you to wait for the pandemic to spread in order to get enough positive people in your trial for significance. It's effectively like "challenging" random people in the public in the hopes that some
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by moultano 6y ago
People join the military not knowing whether or not they will ever go to war, yet they still join. By doing so they risk death, dismemberment, and all manner of long term disability under the belief that doing so makes everyone else safer.
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by moultano 6y ago
Even once safety is established, our current protocol requires waiting for wave of infections to sweep so thoroughly through the population that some of the study volunteers are infected by chance.
185.
by moultano 6y ago
The point that challenge trials don't determine safety is accurate, but most of the article is again arguing about the ethics rather than the efficacy. Imagine if volunteers were not permitted by ethicists to storm the beaches of Norma
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by moultano 6y ago
Challenge trials. https://www.1daysooner.org/ If it were considered ethical to do them, we could have known in a few weeks. "Medical ethics" claims another million lives.
187.
by moultano 6y ago
Viruses destroy your cells. Their "purpose" is to do damage to your body. Vaccines don't. If they damage your body it's by accident.
188.
by moultano 6y ago
The intent isn't to present them as noble savages at all, but as real people with their own complicated motivations. The author is a white American and knows that he doesn't have to put any work in to humanize the European colonis
189.
by moultano 6y ago
Its purpose is to show the world from Tisquantum's perspective, not positive and negative. You can find an abundance of writing about Plymouth colony from other perspectives. That doesn't make either of them wrong.
190.
by moultano 6y ago
These are some of the most fascinating books I've ever read. I really think anyone who lives in the new world should read them. Our default understanding of the land in which we live is so far off from the reality of its history. These
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Native Intelligence(smithsonianmag.com)
56 points by moultano 6y ago|16 comments
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Earth model shows self-sustained permafrost melting even if emissions stop today(nature.com)
3 points by moultano 6y ago|1 comments
193.
by moultano 6y ago
But he provides no evidence that this is the case. The 2016 election was extremely volatile due to what actually happened during it, not the modelling. There were several bombshell press events all throughout the campaign that dramatically
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by moultano 6y ago
It was not. You are mistaken about the history.
195.
by moultano 6y ago
This isn't true. He had both a "nowcast" (if the election were held today) and a prediction of the final result. The only change in that regard between 2016 and now was to stop publishing the nowcast. Edit: Even after your ed
196.
by moultano 6y ago
There are lots of positive feedbacks, but they are very difficult to predict the timing and magnitude of with any degree of certainty. Some examples include: - increased fires increasing CO2 - melting permafrost releasing CO2 and methane -
197.
by moultano 6y ago
That happened. It is no longer plausible for us to hold temperatures to 1.5C, which means that we will lose the polar ice cap, and greenland will slowly melt. The weather in the Northern hemisphere will consequently become chaotic and unlik
198.
130 Degrees(nybooks.com)
2 points by moultano 6y ago|0 comments
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A room, a bar and a classroom: how the coronavirus is spread through the air(english.elpais.com)
3 points by moultano 6y ago|0 comments
200.
by moultano 6y ago
Do you see any evidence that the consistent under-shooting of IPCC consensus predictions has built trust? It is not possible to have an accurate mean prediction, and also to have no predictions above the mean.
201.
by moultano 6y ago
The fact that humans interbred with them likely means we would just think of them as another kind of slightly different looking people.
202.
by moultano 6y ago
What hurts public trust in climate science is primarily a massive and well funded propaganda campaign that's been going on for 50 years. Some scientists are going to sometimes be wrong about things. It is impossible for them to be scie
203.
by moultano 6y ago
The context of that prediction were the extreme records set by sea ice in 2012, when it did almost disappear. That made some scientists think that we were seeing a nonlinear phase shift and that it would not recover. It did recover, and res
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by moultano 6y ago
I don't understand the expectation that every prediction from a climate scientist should be able to hit inherently stochastic dates precisely. On the scale of geologic time and the level of inherent randomness and epistemic uncertainty
205.
by moultano 6y ago
Here's the response from the Intercept. https://static.theintercept.com/amp/glenn-greenwald-resigns-... > The narrative Glenn presents about his departure is teeming with distortions and inaccuracies — all of t
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by moultano 6y ago
> it's a language model designed to continue a sequence of words. If a language model were able to do this task perfectly, it would be indistinguishable from intelligence, because continuing a sequence of words requires reasoning. Y
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by moultano 6y ago
> Some people have completely unrealistic expectations about what large-scale language models such as GPT-3 can do. Just want to point out that he's saying the people on the upper end of the expectation distribution are wrong, not t
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by moultano 6y ago
https://www.carbonbrief.org/solar-is-now-cheapest-electricit... "The world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest…electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countrie
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by moultano 6y ago
The vaccine may itself not be perfectly protective, and the herd immunity threshold only works if the people vaccinated are random. Otherwise any unvaccinated population can have an outbreak.
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by moultano 6y ago
Even if they never eradicate them entirely, destroying their hives whenever they're found can keep them in check.

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