mnl

14 ms·

91.
by mnl 7y ago
Yes, retirement home. The idea is problematic (wishful thinking actually) because you can't guarantee that people providing care there aren't infected. They might be asymptomatic or incubating. You can test them, but I don't
92.
by mnl 7y ago
They have to show up at work by law, but there are unscrupulous people making a lot of money with shady nursing homes that simply have shown their lack of any human decency with this. I'm pretty sure they'll get their due retribut
93.
by mnl 7y ago
That was simply zero information about the nursing home situation in Spain and plain old (you should guess where it comes from) political internal ethno-supremacism. Meanwhile in the real world, for instance, I live next to a nursing home w
94.
by mnl 7y ago
Nursing home, obviously.
95.
by mnl 7y ago
Yes, I found out that later, but while we were in the low hundreds fitting to an exponential didn't seem to work very well in comparison to a polynomial (it was overestimating). It wasn't a quadratic either. There it jumped and I
96.
by mnl 7y ago
First thing you do is try to make sense of the data, if I can model 15 points with 2, 3, 4 parameters and further ones don't add any improvement I'm onto something. I've always done polynomials first, you can see if there&#x2
97.
by mnl 7y ago
I mean, it's just frustration. You have to expect this from a novel disease once you realize its R0 has been characterized, it's greater than 2, it's airborne and asymptomatic patients can transmit it. What have been people e
98.
by mnl 7y ago
Apparently not with this when you're early. I took it seriously when a third degree polynomial fit worked too well and then suddenly didn't.
99.
by mnl 7y ago
It is not an exponential, it's a logistic curve, just approximate with the SIS model, it's easier. Yeah I knew by Sunday that tomorrow we're hitting 30,000 cases in Spain. My assumptions worked. And it's just the tip, b
100.
by mnl 7y ago
This. I expect duplication every three days where I'm writing this until the effects of lockdown measures show up clearly in around two weeks time. Think about something akin to some sort of nuclear reactor with control rods up you&#x2
101.
by mnl 7y ago
This. I've been very very angry with the official response until last week because this is not really hard to estimate and the numbers were there already. I'm quite happy with the recent tough measures, they make sense and I expec
102.
by mnl 7y ago
There's always side effects to everything you do, but if we're being picky about the fire analogy (maybe I'd rather go to the beach than putting out a fire right now), I'd agree I should have used a gangrene one.
103.
by mnl 7y ago
I'm somewhat puzzled about this doomed economy idea. Many businesses are doomed of course, but some opportunities arise: economy changes, it adapts to the environment. We've been building the perfect tool for this scenario during
104.
by mnl 7y ago
I think it does, you don't wait a week to put out a fire, it gets worse. China has essentially contained it already. Maybe alternating lockdowns and releases we might be able to keep it manageable until there's a vaccine. This is
105.
by mnl 7y ago
That's an aspiration more than a reasoning IMO. Meanwhile that R0=2.28 is doing its thing and it can't be good for the NHS, meaning many ugly pictures. The thing is when tabloids are going to get hysterical about this.
106.
by mnl 7y ago
I'm pretty confident they'll start copying everyone else in 10-14 days. They are ignoring any sensible model of this and they won't be able to deal with the uproar once the numbers reach a psychological threshold. Happened la
107.
by mnl 7y ago
Funnily I get nothing from these. I can't see any tension in the compositions. They're aimless. I guess it's what I'd expect from mixing attributes from other paintings. What did the painter want to do here? I don&#x27
108.
by mnl 7y ago
A "small experiment" needing like it or not 7 TeV for hadronic collisions or 126 GeV for leptonic collisions (now we know that, before the LHC we didn't, just that something had to happen with, say WW at 1TeV). And how exactl
109.
by mnl 7y ago
Which experiments have turned up nothing? Do you mean SUSY not showing up at the LHC? Do you think physicists can materialize particles that do not exist in Nature? Finding that the mechanism of electroweak symmetry breaking happens to be t
110.
by mnl 7y ago
I think there's a lot of information sleeping in depositories only on paper. The thing is people are busy with the urgent stuff and stay away from the important if they can't get something immediate from it. I've used extensi
111.
by mnl 7y ago
I come from a family of schoolteachers and as far as I can tell since the 19th century the grip they taught was something like the "dynamic tripod", which of course is the one I use (and advocate strongly). Modern teachers who don
112.
by mnl 7y ago
Way before that the carbon cycle will stop and most life on Earth will starve. Yet way before that we'd have evolved into different species that will likely go extinct as they all do (I think the average lifetime is 10My). I don't
113.
by mnl 7y ago
Well, I've been trained in Radiation Protection and I think I understand quite well why the crazy parts are just crazy or too crazily expensive to fund. On the other hand, Elon presenting some rendering across Jupiter's radiation
114.
by mnl 7y ago
Now, why am I seeing this factual comment in grey? See here for instance a popsci take on the problem: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/is-gravity-quantu... Everybody expects a quantum theory of gravitation,
115.
by mnl 7y ago
Why not? Do people trust the potential uses of that technology? If they/we don't and we all live in working democracies we have the right to ban it if we want. I don't trust anybody having this technology, and the same goes f
116.
by mnl 7y ago
Well, maybe one's own kids aren't really anything to write home about, hence they really could do with that kind of advantage over more talented yet poorer ones. But then what's the "societal" point in perpetuating
117.
by mnl 7y ago
Well, it's a great way to shut down whatever criticism without saying "because I say so", at least not straight away.
118.
by mnl 7y ago
Maybe people don't get the point because they don't walk that much with light traffic around, but we do this all the time in my city old town area... and you just don't hear the Prius cab that's right behind you after po
119.
by mnl 7y ago
I don't think you're being fair here. He's just sharing lore he had to become familiar with during his graduate school years. Such stories are part of the experience. BTW he's written a fine summary of the history of par
120.
by mnl 7y ago
No, it isn't, it's what you get after integrating to all frequencies the Planck distribution for the radiation of a black body in thermodynamic equilibrium, which if you can get a sufficiently black one, you can check out it match

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