maxglute

26 ms·

451.
by maxglute 9mo ago
>They must be repaid in US dollars IMO this one of those cases where dollars is ultimately benchmark than requirement, IOU/settlement forms can always be restructured/renegotiated if USD is no longer lender of last resort, i.e.
452.
by maxglute 9mo ago
>demand is still there today Not all demand the same. There are broadly 2 types of USD buyers 1. price insensitive: sovereign banks, who buys for liquidity/storage 2. price sensitive: hedge funds, private buyer who buys returns Type
453.
by maxglute 9mo ago
Yi Fuxian claim gov data showed 140m children were vaxed but there were only 110m kids registered in school, suggesting 30m fake/shadow kids. But school registration does not include 40m kindergartners... which syncs up to 140 gov clai
454.
by maxglute 9mo ago
Domestic problem as in domestic involution problem not a EV overcapacity problem. I'm pointing out important to distinguish between ICE and EV, ICE is structural overcapacity, EV is under capacity but involution. ICE zero mile shenanig
455.
by maxglute 9mo ago
"Credible" critics (as in least noncredible) i.e. YiFuxian undercount in <10% range, which comports with bureaucratic incentive to overcount before digitization when head count hard to track. >perhaps by 100's of millio
456.
by maxglute 9mo ago
There's not really NEV oversupply, the EV adoption curve will keep shooting up from 50% to 100%, many PRC EV companies will die from competition/pricewar consolidation not broader oversupply, since EV industrial base is still unde
457.
by maxglute 9mo ago
This is a retarded list of self reported paper commitments, not actual practice, i.e. no actual supply chain assessment was done, not that you can trust a propaganda shitrag like amnesty. Tesla simply "promises" in their PR to be
458.
by maxglute 9mo ago
PRC built ~550 GW of solar last year, ~300GW domestic, ~250GW export. About 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in terms of oil displacement / energy flow (substitution method). In terms of stock, assume 30 year panel lifespan
459.
by maxglute 9mo ago
> China has the same problems as OAI PRC pureplay AI only companies has same problems as openAI, that's not the same as huge tech companies like Baidu or Alibaba or Tencent (i.e. Google/Microsoft tier) who can afford to lose m
460.
by maxglute 9mo ago
Is OpenAI profitable yet? Will it be in time to recoop capex.
461.
by maxglute 9mo ago
In 6 months TMSC US foundries would grind to a halt without consumables from TW who still has many sole source suppliers. The reason for CONUS TSMC fabs is because that's all US industrial policy can really manage, CHIPS never pretende
462.
by maxglute 9mo ago
TW missiles can't "concentrate" because TW geography = all missile flight paths travels through boost, midcourse and terminal interceptors gauntlet along PRC easter theatre command which probably has the densest IADS in the w
463.
by maxglute 9mo ago
TW doesn't have any munitions that can remotely breach gravity dam like three gorges, i.e. bunker buster, which even if they did, they wouldn't have survivable platform to deliver it (strategic bombers, too heavy for TEL). US MOP
464.
by maxglute 9mo ago
PRC veto = no algo transfer = bytedance/tiktok US can't be "sold" / total divestiture. New "sale" basically US conceded to PRC JV model, i.e. US companies operating in PRC has local data warehousing requir
465.
by maxglute 9mo ago
What is the point of medium / long form content when you can get 80% of the dopamine for 5% of the commitment. Most "content" is mediocre, condensed short term doesn't waste your time. Most "content" TLDR down
466.
by maxglute 9mo ago
>Microsoft would do the same in China, Europe, middle east,etc.. the FBI isn't special. One would presume US agencies has leverage to access global data.
467.
by maxglute 9mo ago
BBC finds out China has wework.
468.
by maxglute 9mo ago
PRC built ~550 GW of solar last year, ~300GW domestic, ~250GW export. About 4 million barrels of oil equivalent per day in energy flow. Assume 30 year lifespan, everyday OF PRC solar production = ~120 million barrels of oil stock (4mbd * 30
469.
by maxglute 9mo ago
> so subsidized Emphasis on "so", i.e. past obvious strategic rationale like food "security", there's reason to believe US ag has excessive subsidies. IMO answer is like every other "strategic" sector,
470.
by maxglute 9mo ago
He said legacy / naive multinational orgs where hegemons with disproportionate influence and exceptionalism can game the system to subordinate smaller countries, especially in stacked bilaterals. He propose variable geometry which is s
471.
by maxglute 9mo ago
There's no contradiction to resolve, Trump decided CAN should no longer benefit from proximity. That's the geopolitical reality under current US admin. There's nothing left to do but hedge and move on or wait for new US admin
472.
by maxglute 9mo ago
RMB settled ~60% of PRC cross border payments last year (up from 30% a few years ago), ~6T USD equivalent in settlement, which already makes rmb more real/useful currency than euro/yen reserves. And functionally shadow reserve - R
473.
by maxglute 9mo ago
Well the real question: Is the US losing interest in reserve dominance? Contrary to popular opinion, IMO PRC doesn't want reserve currency trade off (triffin / trade deficits etc). What PRC wants is to secure her own interests wit
474.
by maxglute 9mo ago
Arizona fabs don't work without TW's many sole source suppliers for fab consumables. They'll likely grind to halt after few months when stock runs out. All the dollar shuffling's not going to replace supply chain that wi
475.
by maxglute 9mo ago
US buyers owns like 10x more real estate in Canada in $$$ terms than PRC buyers, and US tends to buy the strategic stuff like commercial/industry, something like 50% of all foreign controlled assets in Canada is controlled by US. VS PR
476.
by maxglute 9mo ago
>what are they going to buy annually that will make a difference at this point Mechanically, "they" being sovereign banks serve as price-insensitive marginal buyers that close treasury auctions regardless of price because they
477.
by maxglute 9mo ago
Any launchers where you can set PNG as app icon? Or whats the safest version of Nova to downgrade back to?
478.
by maxglute 9mo ago
Action, I think they invented it, but it's also gotten pretty bloated over the years.
479.
by maxglute 9mo ago
>expected outcome is that those consumers get to enjoy cheaper imports from China That's eco101 expectation, but reality after initial tariff chaos settles is cat-mouse of circumvention - PRC producers would price discriminately, i.
480.
by maxglute 9mo ago
Some PRC manufacturers uniquely exposed to US market probably ate/split tariffs, but US like 5% of PRC exports, so it only matters so much. And after initial shock, most figured out to tranship/reroute and arbitrate lower tariff r

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