maxglute

22 ms·

301.
by maxglute 7mo ago
The problem is they are not would be attackers, they're countries building up domestic defense that US would have to preempt ala Cuban missile crisis, and sustain preemption over entire continent, with each preemption legitimizing rati
302.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Reminds me of installing Autocad from 1 x 5.25 floppy.
303.
by maxglute 7mo ago
I feel like companies over certain size needs to have live support to pester. I had my youtube premium (back when it was red) banned for violating community guidelines - impossible since account was only used for viewing videos. Appeals got
304.
by maxglute 7mo ago
> it is acceptable It's acceptable, as I said, targets in RU soil legitimate. Of course the UKR has their own calculation on what PRC interests in RU they're able to hit that's not counterproductive - PRC support for RU MI
305.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Think about all the "people" AI services can displace in due time. There's a fuckload of pencil pushers / knowledge workers with 100k student loans whose lifetime contribution can probably be measured in a few hundred do
306.
by maxglute 7mo ago
There is no can of worms. Hosting US assets actively being used in war vs Iran = being active co-belligerents. Host countries no longer neutral when they don't adhere to duty of abstention (Hague Convention V). This not even Iran using
307.
by maxglute 7mo ago
The real thought experiment is ~600m people in central/south American within ~6000km, i.e. IRBM range of US gulf coast, where ~50% of US oil refinery and LNG plant production are. Now that Iran has validated mid tier power can cobble t
308.
by maxglute 7mo ago
> destroying much of Iran's military and leadership was done from US carriers No. This is absurd claim that can't physically comport with sortie generation math. CSIS report from first 3 weeks noted Israel did more than half of
309.
by maxglute 7mo ago
UKR = entire country of +40m is on the battlefront so they can do total war mobilized homefront distributed system... so can Iran. But it's very different for force projecting security guarantor US - can't convince paying protecto
310.
by maxglute 7mo ago
I am not betting on one or other happening, I am simply stating, the downstream effect of Iran being able to hold onto Hormuz, i.e. by outlasting US political will create conditions for GCC petro-yuan. Which may not be out of question becau
311.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Literally buy from PRC... most of worlds largest trade partner. That's why the system should work, it's closed loop. And we know world aktually fine with yuan denominated trade since PRC increased yuan settlement from 10 to >50
312.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Relative/strategic win like emptying SPR might be win for US, but US being stuck in middle east quagmire spilling disproportionate treasure is bigger net win for PRC. PRC suffering 50B in refined re-export is not same as 200B floor war
313.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Petro-yuan =/= reserve currency. USD reserve = print USD for everything liquidity to sustain debt financed existence where Triffin hollows out industry, and financialize everything because having stupid amount of liquidity incentivizes
314.
by maxglute 7mo ago
>economic damage Shutting down on subsectors of petchem with i.e. forgoing $30-80 margin per barrel of refined crude, around 1-2mbd, which is... not nothing but fraction vs US cost to sustain war to deny those barrels - think ~50b per ye
315.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Currency appreciates due to printing / supply. Hence I specifically highlighted petro-yuan =/= reserve currency. PRC not going to be brrrrting yuan to replace USD liquidity. PRC simply going to extend yuan swap lines to trusted pe
316.
by maxglute 7mo ago
PRC coal to petchem is like 3mbd equivalent (growing at 500k mbd per year), profitable vs oil at $80, ergo about 3/5 of their industrial feedstock inputs just got massive 50% and growing discount vs everyone else. Plastics, synthetics,
317.
by maxglute 7mo ago
If the water merchant in the desert wants to charge in blowjobs, people going to starting giving blowjobs. 30% Hormuz oil is not short/medium term substitutable, if Iran can enforce (big if) Petro yuan then we get Petro yuan. USD alrea
318.
by maxglute 7mo ago
The unfairness goes both ways, but one way MUCH harder. On terminal interception, RV weight less critical factor - the unfairness is RV kinematic requirements simply lower than KKV kinematic requirements, and ceiling where KKVs physically c
319.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Terminal maneuvering vs interceptor kinematics difficult don't scale same at same rate with speed increase, a few Gs on reentry is magnified on interceptor end, the physics is not fair between attacker/defender. Higher threats are
320.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Iran doesn't use PRC super sonic missiles or Chinese bunkers. PRC is so far only power to have demonstrated high end missiles, coordinated to hit moving targets at sea 5000km away. Not only pin point but pin point on moving targets, an
321.
by maxglute 7mo ago
In terms of credibility, this is the same group / private company that claimed the ramject rotating detonation engine last year. They're the only private PRC aerospace company that works on hypersonic technology, they've been
322.
by maxglute 7mo ago
US LNG already functionally unlimited already. Mismatch is getting heavy/sour crude for diesel etc for us gulf coast where domestic shale crude is light/sweet. Could build expensive refineries in south to fix mismatch, or as someo
323.
by maxglute 7mo ago
It's guaranteed access but I think still paying close to benchmark price (relative sludge tier VZ oil) because Trump likely can't/won't compel Chevron to sell at discount for getting VZ up and running. Ironically if oil
324.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Not really. US, a competent operator of US made platforms losing hardware to Iranian box of scraps is different than third party operators vs overmatch environment, i.e. Pakistani had pathetic amount of IADs vs India, and by all accounts VZ
325.
by maxglute 7mo ago
TBH if US had it's shit together and sorted out refinery mismatch it can coast along as CONUS crude island with WTI prices of $40-60, but that's 7-10 year resolution. On paper if Trump sequenced refinery build out during Trump1, U
326.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Iran already bled enough high end regional interceptors, the strategic balance is if they can build enough moped shaheeds that can be assembled in garages to overwhelm whatever comes in theatre. And we know upper limit of US+co interceptor
327.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Probably scale, a few million jews, arabs - qataris and emirates and saudi royalty is unlikely enough to deconstruct Iran, unlike Germany vs multiple comparably or larger sized regional peers. Iran is 100m large country + 100s millions more
328.
by maxglute 7mo ago
>much more value from validating and improving your equipment and its handling than the actual "cost" of revealing its capabilities to adversaries in almost every conflict. The value of carrying a big stick is lost when others
329.
by maxglute 7mo ago
Maybe for subsonic, high end missiles I'm extremely skeptical. Need 5-10MW to get useful dwell power on high end hypersonic inherently shielded against reentry thermals. Speculative laser defense are infra size defense, not mobile trai
330.
by maxglute 7mo ago
>Hence, for one warhead, a defender can launch 4 interceptors and have a 96% chance of successfully intercepting the incoming warhead. >Unfortunately, those numbers are optimistic. This part worth stressing, ceiling for more performan

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