magicsmoke

10 ms·

31.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
It's not exactly like MAD because with MAD everyone has an accurate idea of how many nukes they have and the resulting destruction if they're exchanged. With cyberattacks you can't get an accurate idea of how backdoored your
32.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
Also, these days it's less the petrodollar and more the technodollar as shown by the handwringing over US/China technological dependence/independence and how many key technologies in electronics/aerospace/biotech ea
33.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
Seems like this could be mitigated by having a network of radar emitters that periodically turn on and off while sharing targeting information through the network to non-emitting missile launchers. Maybe the emitters could also be mobile an
34.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
It's reductive to say that developed countries aren't having kids because of condom availability, while ignoring all the underlying social factors that don't go away even if condoms weren't available. In developing count
35.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
We've got it ladies and gentlemen. The secret to halting population decline in the developed world is banning condoms.
36.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
> Or if you have experienced income instability, and you do not feel comfortable bringing children into the world. Yet poorer developing nations have higher birth rates than developed nations. Is it because they have lower expectations f
37.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
What about their speed and range? If they fly fast they're not going far. If they go far they're slow moving targets. And if they go fast and far they have expensive rockets attached and you're being hit with missiles instead
38.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
It feels like most of the recent fascination with drones is due to overlap with civilian off-the-shelf technology and the fantasy of being able to buy something that could potentially go toe to toe with advanced militaries. When in fact, mi
39.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
And I suppose the carrier vehicle is somehow invulnerable to missiles? In fact, why wouldn't it just carry missiles in the first place?
40.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
A drone with the same range as a missile would be indistinguishable from a missile. A drone without the same range as a missile would likely have its carrier detected and destroyed before it can get in range to release it's drones. Dro
41.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
Up until those mines end up sinking Argentinian fisherman or a unrelated cargo vessel that happens to be passing through.
42.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
Rules are a way for whichever party is more powerful at the time of rule writing to lock in advantages in their favor. Take a look at any US election cycle, each parties tries to create laws that it knows will be difficult to overturn even
43.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
More specifically Mao than the entire CCP leadership. The cultural revolution was an attempted coup by Mao to regain power after he was sidelined by his disastrous economic policies. It also really colored the viewpoints of the post Mao CCP
44.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
India is probably the best comparison to China due to their similar population and level of development post independence in 1950. It's also used on Chinese forums as an example of why China dodged a bullet with democracy.
45.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
That's the reason behind why Japan invaded Manchuria in 1931. Japan's invasion of the rest of China though was an act of militaristic hubris that caused a net loss in resources over 4 years and led them to invade the rest of south
46.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
The way I think of it is that democracy is a very expensive form of governance. Having legal protections and representation for all members of society is great, but it is also a luxury that allows various bad actors and interest groups to c
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by magicsmoke 5y ago
FDR didn't cut off Japan's oil because of their occupation of China. During Japan's occupation starting 1937 American companies were making plenty of war profits supplying oil and metal to Japan's military, with the US g
48.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
The other uncomfortable possibility is that there will be no safe way to project force overseas in the face of overwhelming land based systems, and that the US will be limited to projecting force around where it has terrestrial assets and a
49.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
An equally interesting question would be, why China and not India? Both countries have massive populations, became fully sovereign in the 1950s, and started with similar economic backgrounds.
50.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
China's population is not homogeneous, and neither is Singapore's. Singapore has large Indian and Malay ethnic populations, China's got dozens of ethnicities and the main Han ethnic group is really a mix of different cultural
51.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
I'd say the US is only partially sensitive to those islands in the south China sea in how they impact maritime navigation for their navy. Key to understanding the SCS dispute is that in comes in two parts. One is who the islands, the a
52.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
The chilling implication behind some Taiwanese downplaying the threat is that they think it'll be relatively bloodless. That is, they plan to surrender once China feels comfortable enough about its naval balance against the US to pull
53.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
That would honestly be the best option for the Taiwanese (other than magically fighting off an invasion with minimal civilian casualties of course). Taiwan only exists because the US stepped in front of Communist China in the 1950s. It wasn
54.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
Not sure Russia, Iran, or the Saudis give a shit about Taiwan. China only loses its oil shipments if it can't secure shipping through the Indian ocean or build an overland alternative. It won't make a move until those are complete
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by magicsmoke 5y ago
Also surprising is that TSMC was recently hit by water shortages due to a drought in Taiwan. Arizona isn't exactly drought resistant, yet they built there instead of rainy Washington.
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by magicsmoke 5y ago
Revisit that in 50 years.
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by magicsmoke 5y ago
Vietnam I wouldn't be worried about. China's burned it's hand in those jungles before, I doubt they're keen to do it again. As for those island disputes all I can say is good luck and at least they're not heavily po
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by magicsmoke 5y ago
If you're in the Americas, Europe, or Australia that will never happen in your lifetime. Think about how plausible the US annexing China and controlling it would be. Now flip that around and double the difficulty. If you're in sou
59.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
Which India probe was this? I don't remember any discussion or news about India landing a probe on the moon in the past 10 years.
60.
by magicsmoke 5y ago
The writer seems to be fighting a battle that's already lost, against an imagined degradation of the status of engineer when the engineer term was never afforded the same status or responsibility as MD in medicine or JD in law. Medicin

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