lend000

40 ms·

451.
by lend000 5y ago
> Looking at money supply is pretty meaningless without also looking at velocity. M2 has been going up but the velocity has been going down [1]. Are you not aware of the GDP component of velocity?... The purpose being to incorporate econ
452.
by lend000 5y ago
> weights are recalculated every two years and the products in the price survey are kept constant to the extent possible Perhaps you mean that the weights follow a 2 year moving average? They clearly change significantly each year, if yo
453.
by lend000 5y ago
> Yes. The weights are determined from survey data (Consumer Expenditure Survey, conducted by the census bureau). They aren't just made up. That's sort of the point of the previously linked article. Rather than measure price ch
454.
by lend000 5y ago
Fascinating! I didn't know these weights were published. If you look at the data from 2005 to 2019, you can see substantial, seemingly arbitrary weight changes in gasoline (and other items) to come up with a stable CPI number. For exam
455.
by lend000 5y ago
The calculation for CPI is not publicly available, but it has been believed for some time that gasoline is a huge part of the index. The interesting part is the relative flatlining of gasoline in unadjusted dollars since 2004 (for many logi
456.
Gasoline Prices Adjusted for Inflation(usinflationcalculator.com)
17 points by lend000 5y ago|29 comments
457.
by lend000 5y ago
Here's a good approximation [0]. Didn't mean to insult your intelligence. That's just consumer inflation, by the way. Asset inflation is a different beast that is better measured in terms of wealth inequality. I'd recomm
458.
by lend000 5y ago
SPX grows 8% a year (6% when adjusted for GDP growth), US real estate increases 3.8%, and bank interest rates pay FAR less than even "reported" CPI, which is a joke of a metric almost entirely weighted by oil prices, which are not
459.
by lend000 5y ago
If someone is consistently profitable/market making/etc., then they are making the market less volatile than it would be if it consisted solely of retail gamblers like those described in the article. But the same can be said of po
460.
by lend000 5y ago
> Ask a group of people who observed an event and invariably there will be a substantial portion who remembered basic facts about the event wrong. This phenomenon is well understood. This phenomenon is not well understood at all, only ob
461.
by lend000 5y ago
Confidently making conventional statements about truly unknown phenomena is the easiest way to seem smart, if you aren't. Lots of psychological barriers are preventing people from examining this topic with an open mind (on both sides o
462.
by lend000 5y ago
Under-desk treadmill. Very relevant for HN. Support your vascular system, hips, and your back. Sitting or even standing still all day at the computer is extremely unhealthy. I now walk while working (and while I'm typing this) 1-2 hour
463.
by lend000 5y ago
Agree. For studying pure markets and financial psychology, there is no better case study.
464.
by lend000 5y ago
> there's already a term for what you are referring to A bubble suggests the inherent overvaluation in a natural market cycle. Inflation is used intentionally to differentiate that the price is higher because money was artificially
465.
by lend000 5y ago
We did get tremendous asset inflation. QE is arguably one of the greatest drivers of wealth inequality. If the QE was done to fund social security payments (i.e. a broad check to every American instead of asset inflation mostly benefitting
466.
by lend000 5y ago
This is an Orwellian take to want the government to tell you how you're allowed to use electricity. Is watching TV a waste of energy? How much energy goes into steaming Netflix? If you want to target an externality of the free market,
467.
by lend000 5y ago
> Sixty years on, the most interesting thing about the case is enthusiasts' refusal to consider the most plausible explanation because it doesn't deliver the same satisfaction as less likely theories like government conspiracy.
468.
by lend000 5y ago
> Why hasn't the last year or two of very easy money caused huge problems? See the other comment I posted on this article. Commodities have skyrocketed. But the price of the beef in your Big Mac was negotiated years ago, so consumer
469.
by lend000 5y ago
Not sure if this is tongue in cheek, but no. Inflation relatively benefits those who have a higher percentage of their net worth in assets than cash (i.e. the rich). It also benefits those who have a lot of debt. Before the Fed got into the
470.
by lend000 5y ago
Deflationary periods and natural recessions hurt in the short term, but they are also the most consistent periods in American history where wealth inequality decreases as the economy corrects and reallocates capital [0]. Staving them off at
471.
by lend000 5y ago
Random length lumber futures are up 200% since the pandemic began. Copper and soybean futures are both up 60%. Industrial steel is up 133%. Industrial silicon is up 70%. Sunflower oil +114%. Wheat +20%. Platinum +29%. Gold +20%. Aluminum +3
472.
by lend000 5y ago
To add to the sibling comment, not only do they result in huge amounts of capital being spread evenly across an index instead of efficiently to deserving companies, but they inflate the entire equities market, even when it's overheated
473.
by lend000 5y ago
You're probably being downvoted because you mentioned unions in a negative light, but your points are factually correct. Unions have a place for protecting unskilled workers, but what happens in game development is quite unique, becaus
474.
by lend000 5y ago
Truly passive income doesn't really exist (and shouldn't exist, outside of perhaps some type of state sponsored basic income). The exception in recent history is ETF's, which provide a relatively high level of reliable growth
475.
by lend000 5y ago
What? Protected how? People see things they don't like and demand that the government "does something about it." It's a natural reaction, but it's exactly that kind of reaction that leads to legislation like the Pat
476.
by lend000 5y ago
I'm in agreement. But to tax people 67% starting at 400K is ludicrous to me, barring emergency wartime measures (although nowadays the Fed would just print the money and dissolve the value of USD). That 67% rate was for income over TWO
477.
by lend000 5y ago
I don't think anyone on either side of this thread is confused by this simple concept. But perhaps in writing your own comment you realize how unprogressive these tax brackets are. You start paying pretty close to the top rate on incom
478.
by lend000 5y ago
It's all relative. But no, making 400K after 10 years does not result in $4M. If you make that 400K as an engineer in a coastal tech hub and put all the savings in the bank after taxes and expenses, you have 1M after 10 years. Not much
479.
by lend000 5y ago
The fact that there are people making 10,000 times as much as the highest bracket in a single year suggests whoever is proposing these tax laws does not actually want to solve the problem. There should be brackets going up to a billion doll
480.
by lend000 5y ago
Are there performance comparisons with stock CPython and PyPy anywhere?

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