kqr

12 ms·

241.
by kqr 7mo ago
Hah. My father has similar stories from his time as a paramedic. There were some transitions from one page to another that were considered unusually difficult, and during training they would find a way to force the rookie map-book reader to
242.
by kqr 7mo ago
Strong beliefs that - things rarely change, - noise dominates most measurements, - a good story is not evidence, - it is very rarely possible to know things more certainly than 10--90 %. Phrases to look up are "confirmation bias",
243.
by kqr 7mo ago
Is it specifically the financial maneuvering you like? Or do you want to test your prediction skills? If you like financial maneuvering, Manifold is a popular play-money prediction market. If you want to test your forecasting skill, treat t
244.
by kqr 7mo ago
Nobody says this on assumption. It's well-evidenced. https://polymarket.com/accuracy https://www.metaculus.com/questions/track-record/
245.
by kqr 7mo ago
Yes, this is precisely how Polymarket works under the hood. IIRC you can even participate by working directly with the smart contracts.
246.
by kqr 7mo ago
Thanks for the correction! I have to admit it was a while since I last looked into this and I shouldn't have been so confident.
247.
by kqr 7mo ago
This has always been the case for most high-stakes gambling. The problem isn't winning big, the problem is getting the counterparty to pay. Skilled gamblers (when it comes to games with any skill component) throughout history have been
248.
by kqr 7mo ago
Indeed. I also want to give a recommendation in favour of forecast aggregation platforms like Metaculus and GJOpen. Aggregating forecasts works well even without phrasing it as gambling, because you can still have users compete to be the mo
249.
by kqr 7mo ago
I think the other side of the argument goes that (a) the bombings would happen anyway, and (b) bombing is very expensive so nobody actually profits from the insider trading. (The bombs "only" get marginally cheaper.) Thus the only
250.
by kqr 7mo ago
Capitalism took care of the exchange between money and power long ago. Prediction markets, as terrible as they are, are peanuts in comparison.
251.
by kqr 7mo ago
There are no fees on Polymarket. Not sure about others.
252.
by kqr 7mo ago
Is shorting a company and then murdering its CEO considered insider trading in your jurisdiction?
253.
by kqr 7mo ago
> weather prediction markets Can also be used to hedge the risk of rain on the day you've planned an outdoor barbecue!
254.
by kqr 7mo ago
Happens already. Selling market data is part of how they finance themselves.
255.
by kqr 7mo ago
Sure, and pay our enemies to reveal their secrets to us. That's exactly the point of these things. Dangle money in front of people who know things we want to know.
256.
by kqr 7mo ago
> starts asking you hundreds of times "May I run sed -e blah blah blah". In my experience, that is already a sign that it's no longer trying to do the right thing. Maybe it depends on usage patterns.
257.
by kqr 7mo ago
COCOMO estimates the cost of the software, not the value. The cost is only weakly correlated with value.
258.
by kqr 7mo ago
I keep hearing that, and I have yet to go there. I find the permission checks are helpful – they keep me in the loop which helps me intervene when the LLM is wasting time on pointless searches, or going about the implementation wrong. What
259.
by kqr 7mo ago
> like bragging about using a modern compiler instead of writing assembly. Yet people look at me like I'm the odd one out when I say I am more productive with a modern compiler like GHC.
260.
by kqr 7mo ago
"Exhaustively covering the search space" or "hitting specific edge cases" is the wrong way to think about property tests, in my experience. I find them most valuable as insanity checks, i.e. they can verify that basic in
261.
by kqr 7mo ago
It is really no bother when [1] exists. It took a couple of minutes at most. These are the differences between the transcribed data and the CSV values: https://i.xkqr.org/transcracc.png [1]: https://web.eecs.utk.
262.
by kqr 7mo ago
Any time you want a sequence to be deterministic, seem familiar, and also have a roughly even mix of element types. Think shuffling playlists, ordering search results, etc.
263.
by kqr 7mo ago
I transcribed the data and fitted dual exponentials to it. When time t is in minutes, the data seem to follow T(t) = 20 + 25e^(-2.3*t) + 54e^(-0.034*t) This is very close to what the LLMs suggested. If I wanted to make an initial
264.
by kqr 7mo ago
Wouldn't the successive measurements contain some information of that uncertainty, if we assume the cooling rate is relatively smooth, locally in time? A logarithmic fit to their data indicate a standard deviation of 1 ℃ in the residua
265.
by kqr 7mo ago
This is an older discoery than that. Expert systems back in the day often modeled knowledge as graphs with the arrows being labeled with the specific relationship between the things. It works because (node, edge, node) triplets then form pr
266.
by kqr 7mo ago
Such pop-ups should never automatically get focused. The increase of them was why I switched away from Windows many years ago, and why I like to root my Android devices. It baffles me that focus-stealing notifications cannot be turned off
267.
by kqr 7mo ago
I agree. Fortunately, molly-guard the software can be configured with automated checks to allow safe actions (e.g. shutting down servers that don't receive significant traffic) without pestering the user. This means a properly configur
268.
by kqr 7mo ago
I can warmly recommend the nohup-sleep-disable-cancel pattern for this, as a dead man's switch for danngerous changes. https://entropicthoughts.com/locking-yourself-out-with-firew...
269.
by kqr 7mo ago
I once accidentally rebooted the reverse proxy for all our production traffic. We got some very quiet two minutes while it came back up. After that we installed molly-guard with a check for the number of active connections. Made it painle
270.
by kqr 7mo ago
> when suddenly a car ignored its stop sign and drove into the road. I vaguely recall reading at some point that this is something human drivers learn to do around robot cars because the robots are so timid. Is that still the case, was

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