kqr

20 ms·

391.
by kqr 9mo ago
Money! He has a family to provide for and his unique skillset is "climbing below his grade but with no support", so that's the service he offers the world. (I get that there are more motivations underneath free soloing in gen
392.
by kqr 9mo ago
...which is easily misconstrued as "feeling less fear" which I don't believe for a second. If that was the case he'd be dead by now. But it's certainly time we admit everyone feels feelings diferently. Even somethin
393.
by kqr 9mo ago
I suspect a lot of this is habituation due to repeated practise. As long as one climbs well within one's abilities, the actual level of danger is comparatively low. But the fear is still there and needs to be trained away.
394.
by kqr 9mo ago
There are many answers depending on what you meant by this, but in terms of actual risk this is probably not much worse to him than e.g. riding a motorcycle, and certainly better than what it would have been to be crew on the space shuttle.
395.
by kqr 9mo ago
Is this an open source Palantir?
396.
by kqr 9mo ago
For sure. I mean it when I say I appreciate the criticism! Thanks for the book recommendation. It looks like it might clear up several things I found confusing in the process of writing the blog post, but never managed to figure out.
397.
by kqr 9mo ago
With Kagi you can opt in to an LLM summary of the search result by appending a question mark to the query. It's a neat mechanism when it works!
398.
by kqr 9mo ago
I used to. Even when I actually used DDG. Now that I use Kagi (and thus am on the second web search service after I stopped using Google) it started to feel silly so I say "search the web" these days.
399.
by kqr 9mo ago
Author here. Thanks for the well-reasoned and well-sourced criticism! I'm just a layman. I admit to all misunderstandings and am happy to receive links and words to search for to learn more.
400.
by kqr 9mo ago
I have experienced this before (almost universally negative comments, but still many upvotes). In those cases, some people have reached out to me personally to tell me they enjoyed whatever it was and didn't agree with the negative fee
401.
by kqr 9mo ago
Have you reviewed the code? What were the problems with it? Where did it do things better than you'd expect of humans? Have you compared the effort of making changes to it to the effort required for similar, human-written software? I d
402.
by kqr 9mo ago
This is not an AI performance benchmark, this is an actual exercise given to potential human employees during a recruitment process.
403.
by kqr 9mo ago
Great question! The fine print of the text on Metaculus says the outcome will be judged as if there were no stock split. The question is essentially about the valuation of the company but phrased operationally about the stock price.
404.
by kqr 9mo ago
Are you saying options are not priced at the cost of hedging them? That implies a lot of money could be made by arbitraging between the hedge and the option. That sounds like an egregious statement. Markets don't have simple persistent
405.
by kqr 9mo ago
Sure you can predict the market. Making money off of it beyond the regular risk-adjusted return is what's hard. (And the prediction of this article is indeed based on that assumption.)
406.
by kqr 9mo ago
Possibly? I don't know -- hence the question! GP was presenting fundamental analysis as an alternative to the article's method for answering the question, but then never answered the question. This is a confusion I have around fun
407.
by kqr 9mo ago
Fundamental analysis is great! But I have trouble answering concrete questions of probability with it. How do you use fundamental analysis to assign a probability to Nvidia closing under $100 this year, and what probability do you assign to
408.
by kqr 9mo ago
It uses stone scoring, so it is indeed correct. Stone scoring is equivalent to area scoring (as used in Chinese rules) modulo a "group tax" of two points per separate group. It's still not a good idea to play inside your own
409.
The exchange of messages between Norway's prime minister and President Trump(reuters.com)
3 points by kqr 9mo ago|0 comments
410.
by kqr 9mo ago
I remember splatting being introduced as a way to capture real life scenes, but one of the links you have provided in this discusson seems to have used a traditional polygon mesh scene as training input for the splat model. How common is th
411.
Squishy Go(puyogo.app)
42 points by kqr 9mo ago|8 comments
412.
by kqr 9mo ago
Small children. I need to get to chopping the second we get home or all hell breaks loose. I can certainly not sit down in front of the computer for a few minutes.
413.
ACX 2025 prediction contest retrospective(entropicthoughts.com)
2 points by kqr 9mo ago|0 comments
414.
by kqr 10mo ago
I live in Europe. When we say "parmesan" we almost always mean real Parmigiano Reggiano, and sometimes, in emergencies, Grana Padano.
415.
by kqr 10mo ago
This is indeed the point. Even with messy hands you can just look at the slide rule and read off the right amounts. No need to touch the calculating device.
416.
by kqr 10mo ago
If your goal is a different perspective on calculation, I warmly recommend learning mental maths with logarithms too. Not only does it complement slide rule practise, but it also gives you a linear/additive understanding of multiplicat
417.
Metaculus and Markets: What's the Difference? (2025)(metaculus.com)
1 points by kqr 10mo ago|0 comments
418.
by kqr 10mo ago
Predicting well absent lawyering is really hard! If someone else wants to try I warmly recommend starting with e.g. the ACX 2026 prediction contest: https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/ACX2026/
419.
by kqr 10mo ago
This also explains how early performance can be predictive despite the lack of preferential attachment.
420.
by kqr 10mo ago
Well, better synthesis of public information is also a way to win. Some people think of that as more fair. Another way to win is to use them for hedging exposure elsewhere. That also doesn't require inside information.

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