konschubert

7 ms·

61.
by konschubert 6mo ago
That’s not how prices work. If suppliers know that their output will go to 0 in a few weeks, then the prices will go up now, not in a few weeks.
62.
by konschubert 6mo ago
> Prior to the industrial revolution, the natural world was nearly infinitely abundant. The opposite is true. Central Europe was almost devoid of trees. Food was scarce as arable land bore little fruit without fertiliser. Society was Mal
63.
by konschubert 6mo ago
This is false. If Trump had chosen to nuke Iranian cities, Iran would have had no recourse without a proper nuclear bomb.
64.
by konschubert 6mo ago
We need more batteries for sure.
65.
by konschubert 6mo ago
That exists as well it’s called PPA in the power market, a power purchase agreement. But ultimately, due to arbitrage, PPA prices will converge towards expected spot market prices.
66.
by konschubert 6mo ago
With electrification, I meant electrification of energy consumption.
67.
by konschubert 6mo ago
That’s because that’s how the grid is paid for. Maybe a max-capacity price would be better for household grid connections, but that doesn’t change the fact that the grid needs to be paid for.
68.
by konschubert 6mo ago
People seem to have trouble understanding how commodity markets naturally price their goods but the whole point of this website is to show that electricity prices are finally decoupling. edit: I didn’t watch the videos, I don’t have time fi
69.
by konschubert 6mo ago
Yea. The merit order bidding method just reflects the natural pricing of any commodity market.
70.
by konschubert 6mo ago
In Germany, the price for the 17:00 product today is about 11 Euro, which is NOT the price implied by gas. No gas plant can run at this price.
71.
by konschubert 6mo ago
sorry, can you elaborate? I am happy to fix it or add a caveat comment to the methodology section.
72.
by konschubert 6mo ago
It's the same in Germany. The reason why power prices can still decouple: Because there are more and more quarter-hours where gas plants are NOT setting the price and the marginal cost is set by renewables. The same is happening in the
73.
by konschubert 6mo ago
The whole point of this website is to show that the price of electricity is year-to-date 22% cheaper than it would be in a gas-dominated grid without renewables. So I don't know where you're getting the "No" from? You co
74.
by konschubert 6mo ago
You need quarter-hours where renewables set the price for power. That's only happening now that renewables have reached sufficient penetration of the market. And it will get more as batteries come online. In a commodity market, the pr
75.
by konschubert 6mo ago
Yes! A widening gap between electricity cost and gas cost (and fuel cost) will be THE main driver of electrification! Installing a heat pump will be a no-brainer, driving an electric car will be a no brainer. This can only happen once elect
76.
by konschubert 6mo ago
Social media has shaped us. Why should AI not do the same? It may finally [help us fix out the bullshit asymmetry]( https://www.konstantinschubert.com/2026/03/31/ai-the-bullshi... ) that has been exacerbated b
77.
Has electricity decoupled from natural gas prices in Germany?(has-electricity-decoupled-yet.strommarktberatung.de)
146 points by konschubert 6mo ago|229 comments
78.
by konschubert 6mo ago
I don’t want to be foolishly dismissive, but I just don’t see how launch costs could be small enough to compensate for the huge overhead of putting things into space and maintaining things in space as opposed to literally any other place on
79.
by konschubert 6mo ago
Europe will burn gas in winter for a long time, but it can stop burning gas in summer. Solar is cheaper than wind. For the energy transition, it doesn’t matter who makes the panels. I mean I agree that keeping the know how in Europe is impo
80.
by konschubert 6mo ago
You can try to put the heat underground. Maybe there is an aquifer you can use. Or maybe your desert is close to the coast! Still easier than radiating it into space.
81.
by konschubert 6mo ago
He can blow his money on 1 million satellites that will all decay back into the atmosphere within a few years
82.
by konschubert 6mo ago
Still easier to cool in the desert than in space
83.
by konschubert 6mo ago
Orbital data centers are a dumb idea. Put a solar farm in the desert and add some batteries? That’s cheaper. So I wouldn’t be too worried about this, the economics of this won’t pan out.
84.
by konschubert 6mo ago
We gotta build a lot of solar and batteries. And wind. Let's go.
85.
AI Fixes the Bullshit Asymmetry(konstantinschubert.com)
2 points by konschubert 6mo ago|0 comments
86.
by konschubert 6mo ago
I fall strictly into camp 1, but I disagree on code quality. Code quality makes the difference between a janky system that works most of the time and a rock solid system that is an enjoyment to use. QA can only apply duct tape. If your stat
87.
by konschubert 6mo ago
Today, there is also AHSCT. There are already clinics where they basically remove your immune system and give you a new one. If you don’t die in the process, you are likely to be cured of MS. (Any existing damage will remain.) Currently thi
88.
by konschubert 6mo ago
Everybody has difficult decisions to make in their daily lives and in their work. Having access to a model that is drawing from good sources and takes time to think instead of hallucinating a response is important in many domains of life.
89.
by konschubert 6mo ago
While not everybody is a professional in YOUR domain, many people are professionals in SOME domain. And even outside of that, they deserve a smart conversation partner, for example on topics like health and politics.
90.
by konschubert 6mo ago
I disagree with every sentence of this. > solves the problem of too much demand for inference False, it creates consumer demand for inference chips, which will be badly utilised. > also would use less electricity What makes you think

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