keeda

30 ms·

541.
by keeda 8mo ago
I'm not an expert, I've just been "vibe-R&D"-ing computer vision for a bit now, but I'll guarantee you SSIM is not suitable for this purpose. I've been dabbling in basically this area (comparing small, pote
542.
by keeda 8mo ago
I am beginning to think it's always been like this, which is why the global economy goes through wild ups and downs every few years.
543.
by keeda 8mo ago
Actually, AI's do need code to be pretty. It's becoming widely accepted that whatever is good for humans -- modular code, tests, docs, linters, fast feedback loops -- is good for agents. I keep repeating this, but the latest dat
544.
by keeda 8mo ago
Yeah and until ChatGPT I thought even 50 years was optimistic, which is why current days feel like SciFi! However, at its essence, the current AI revolution has been driven primarily by a few key algorithmic breakthroughs (cf the Bitter Les
545.
by keeda 8mo ago
Physical labor, especially jobs requiring dexterity, will be left for a long time yet. Largely because robotics hardware production cannot scale to meet the demand anytime soon. Like, for many decades. I actually asked Gemini Deep Research
546.
by keeda 8mo ago
If you look closer into history -- or ask your favorite AI to summarize ;-) -- about what new jobs were created when existing jobs were replaced by automation, the answer is broadly the same every time: the newer jobs required higher-level
547.
by keeda 8mo ago
Yes, unfortunately. Each headcount, properly trained and reskilled, is now worth a whole team by themselves! I blame capitalism and the inability to look past the next quarterly earnings statement for what's happening instead. I think
548.
by keeda 8mo ago
Agreed, and the AI wranglers will be the equivalent of architects and staff+ engineers today, and they will be paid handsomely. BUT! They are a pretty small fraction of the current developer workforce. The remaining junior-to-mid level engi
549.
by keeda 8mo ago
This is right on all counts and matches what I've seen and heard. And to all the sibling comments arguing about Elon's Twitter shenanigans being a bad move, it doesn't matter. I know because that's exactly what I said to
550.
by keeda 8mo ago
> I swear people should start blacklisting CEOs and refuse to work under them if they're part of the blacklist. Look at the job market. They know they can get away with it and so they don't care. My current theory is that thi
551.
by keeda 8mo ago
I agree, I'd say we're talking about the same thing, just in different terms. When I said CRUD apps, it was a crude stand-in for what you call the "closing" work. Over-simplifying, but it's unglamorous, not too comp
552.
by keeda 8mo ago
I wouldn't say TypeScript is 90% of all software exactly, but tons of apps on all kinds of technologies like Python / Django, Ruby on Rails, PHP, Wordpress, "enterprise" Java and the like, primarily doing CRUD and data p
553.
by keeda 8mo ago
Cursor and Claude Code are amongst the fastest selling products in history. Cursor: 1 Billion ARR in 24 months -- https://andrew.ooo/posts/cursor-fastest-growing-saas-1b-arr/ Claude Code: 2.5 Billion ARR in 10 m
554.
by keeda 8mo ago
> It's well established that AI just turns devs into AI babysitters that are 10% more productive and produce 200% the bugs, and in the long-term don't understand what they built. It's not well established at all. In fact
555.
by keeda 8mo ago
If you mean "us" on this forum, I would believe that. I would bet the number of engineers working on stuff "outside the distribution" is overrepresented here. If you mean "us" as in all software engineers, not
556.
by keeda 8mo ago
The problem is, the low hanging fruit, the stuff it's good at, is 90% of all software. Maybe more. And it's getting better at the other 10% too. Two years ago ChatGPT struggled to help me with race conditions in a C++ LD_PRELOAD l
557.
by keeda 8mo ago
I don't think the risk is SkyNet. I think the real risk is some disaster through an unexpected chain of events, just like any large-scale outage. I have not read “If Anybody Builds It, Everybody Dies” but I believe that's also its
558.
by keeda 8mo ago
I think he's right and we should be thinking about this a lot more. Even the IMF is worried about 40 - 60% of global employment : https://www.imf.org/en/blogs/articles/2024/01/14/ai-will-t
559.
by keeda 8mo ago
Smoking was allowed on planes ! The first time I ever flew as a kid, I was so excited to be on a plane! And then it turned out to be a 5 hour+ flight with negligible entertainment options and I was so bored... And then, another dude got bo
560.
by keeda 8mo ago
Was thinking more about cognition than neuroscience, but sure, even there. Think of any counter-examples -- I'm guessing things like symbolic reasoning or pre-existing structures in the brain -- and then consider the origins of those c
561.
by keeda 8mo ago
So far it's been more like triple-digit billions per year, and most of that has been coming from the Big Tech companies' operating cash flows. Debt recently entered the picture, however.
562.
by keeda 8mo ago
BTW have we hooked our nukes up to an MCP yet?
563.
by keeda 8mo ago
In my experience, it's the old time-invested vs time-saved trade off. If you're not looking at these reams of output often enough, the incentive to figure out all the flags and configs for verbosity to write these script is lower:
564.
by keeda 8mo ago
Oh yeah I can see that happening, which is why I still scan the code! However, one thing I'll add is that AI-assisted coding requires adapting your workflow. Fortunately, it largely boils down to coding best-practices on steroids: docs
565.
by keeda 8mo ago
Well, if you look into the current scientific consensus on human cognition, our intelligence is also "just statistics." So I guess we all agree, except that some people think "just statistics" is derogatory phrasing!
566.
by keeda 8mo ago
Latest developer surveys (StackOverflow, DORA, DX, Pragmatic Engineer, etc.) show AI adoption up to 85 - 90%. Can you incorporate that into the venn diagram? ;-)
567.
by keeda 8mo ago
That's mostly AI panic based on the narratives swirling around in finance news. I'd agree this threat of decoupling is more serious, but I also think the market knows that US tech is so deeply embedded everywhere that decoupling w
568.
by keeda 8mo ago
I think the issue was with incomplete context. Even before the original METR study came out, there were a number of larger-scale studies that showed a 15 - 30% boost, starting as far back as 2024. I often mention them, though they require s
569.
by keeda 8mo ago
Two different things. My understanding is that the Goldman Sachs take was about the effect of AI investments (largely the humongous CapEx spends by the hyperscalers) showing up in the GDP. This is about labor productivity, a standard nation
570.
by keeda 8mo ago
Another source that has been finding labor productivity increases in national-level data, since 2024 now: https://www.stlouisfed.org/on-the-economy/2025/nov/state-gen... > ... on average, industries with

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