kalkin

6 ms·

31.
by kalkin 2mo ago
It sounds like you have a publishable paper - you've broken Aaronsen's watermarking scheme. Congratulations! (Or maybe you got lucky.)
32.
by kalkin 2mo ago
The article assumes the issue with OTel is slow feature development, which isn't my experience at all. The issue I've had is that the SDKs have terrible performance overhead for instrumentation and are, as you say, highly resistan
33.
by kalkin 2mo ago
All we need to retain human control over AIs is for nobody to write any bugs. Piece of cake.
34.
by kalkin 2mo ago
If logs are eventually released that are basically consistent with OpenAI's story, are you planning to adjust your approach for judging what's only a "sci fi plot" and what could actually happen? Or will extrapolating an
35.
by kalkin 2mo ago
> fable is a world ending event Did anyone actually say this? Mostly what I have seen is people saying "hey at some point these models might get dangerous." And the type of HN commenter who mistakes blind cynicism for wisdom la
36.
by kalkin 2mo ago
I wonder if HN is also going to insist this is just marketing for OpenAI and Anthropic, or at least good PR for them somehow.
37.
by kalkin 2mo ago
Wouldn't your proposal also amount to a ban on open weights models? At least for any developer that isn't unshakably confident that no court will ever find their model to have done significant harm?
38.
by kalkin 3mo ago
> In 2016, the Chicago Cubs won the World Series > This broke a hundred-year drought > A few days later, Donald Trump won the 2016 presidential election It's not a 100% gold standard RCT or whatever...
39.
by kalkin 3mo ago
Let's start by noting you made a factual claim that you apparently had no backing for whatsoever. I'd recommend against doing that. > they would be perfectly capable of keeping it just between themselves and not putting out pre
40.
by kalkin 3mo ago
> this outcome is good for their business and stock price You state this as fact--how do you know it? OpenAI isn't publicly traded. On Hiive OpenAI is marginally down in July: https://www.hiive.com/securities/op
41.
by kalkin 3mo ago
Right, I didn't mention anything about profit or debt. The question is whether this is a bubble that's going away - whether "AI will just be turned off". A revenue trajectory indicating a vast increase in actual consumer
42.
by kalkin 3mo ago
The OP cited a METR study... if you don't think they're credible, fine, but it's hard for me to see how it could be intellectually honest to cite them when their research is helpful to your argument and discredit them when it
43.
by kalkin 3mo ago
The people who chose to use AI would be the ones who would be fooling themselves, right? But they measured actually positive productivity there. METR's concern makes most sense if it's about the inability to measure a consistent t
44.
by kalkin 3mo ago
> I'm quite influenced by Ed Zitron's reporting Zitron has been predicting an imminent bubble pop since 2023 (although in less and less falsifiable terms), as OpenAI and Anthropic revenues have steadily grown 3-10x per year, bu
45.
by kalkin 3mo ago
> Meanwhile, a study (late 2025) seems to report that although participating developers felt they completed tasks faster using AI, they where around 19% slower. METR reran the study early this year and, while they caveat it, this time th
46.
by kalkin 3mo ago
I appreciate the straightforwardness, but you probably understand that's pretty unsatisfying. Actually, stronger - it's valid in some circumstances to say something is infeasible to precisely to define and you'll just know it
47.
by kalkin 3mo ago
It established you can't assign copyright to the LLM itself. That's very different.
48.
by kalkin 3mo ago
> actually intelligent It's reasonable to doubt that LLMs are a path to AGI, but I don't understand how this is still a matter of dispute in 2026. What's your definition of intelligence that doesn't cover an entity th
49.
by kalkin 3mo ago
> Reject the false and self-serving narratives that empathy doesn't matter, that altruism isn't "effective" Who is this supposed to be arguing with? It sort of reads like it's trying to disparage "effective
50.
by kalkin 3mo ago
> The code is not eligible for copyright. This is very much not what the linked case established.
51.
by kalkin 5mo ago
Lots of things are wrong with giving people the power to make choices that affect the whole world, while excluding others who are equally or more affected, based on where they happened to be born. If the logic is that people who are born so
52.
by kalkin 5mo ago
Yes, she addresses this by denying that she's made any empirical hypothesis, but in a way that's some combination of disingenuous and confused. She also says: > What I am trying to do... is to help people understand what these
53.
by kalkin 5mo ago
> The closure leads to price increases which leads to inflation which leads to non-dollar assets (ie stocks going up in value) I think this argument proves too much. Historically energy shocks have led to recessions, and in recessions th
54.
by kalkin 5mo ago
I mean, there's a reason I started with a distancing phrase about a "reasonable argument"; I think what I'm suggesting is an interesting lens but does not capture the whole picture. But also, even if bust is business as
55.
by kalkin 5mo ago
I think there's a reasonable argument that our entire society right now is under AI psychosis: The stock market keeps going up in the face of the indefinite closure of Hormuz. We're investing in datacenters at a scale that only ma
56.
by kalkin 5mo ago
There are a lot of valid reasons to hate AI, but I don't think "morale of Meta engineers" is a very good one. What were they building? Maybe it was fun--some fun tech seems to have come out of Meta--but what was its social im
57.
by kalkin 6mo ago
It's really not clear to me how MAGA people getting scammed will encourage their world view, or that there's meaningful room for further embittering them. Maybe, but perhaps they'll be discouraged! Or perhaps they'll hav
58.
by kalkin 6mo ago
I think it's often entirely reasonable to shed one's empathy for someone who displays no empathy for people like you. Tit-for-tat isn't always the best policy, but it's not psychopathic either. A considerable portion of
59.
by kalkin 6mo ago
That's valid, but it's also worth knowing it's only one part of the puzzle. The submission title doesn't say "input".
60.
by kalkin 6mo ago
AFAICT this uses a token-counting API so that it counts how many tokens are in the prompt, in two ways, so it's measuring the tokenizer change in isolation. Smarter models also sometimes produce shorter outputs and therefore fewer outp

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