jeffreyrogers

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31.
by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
It's ironic that the article that caused him to write this post ( https://substack.com/@justindeschamps/note/c-261265212?utm_s... ) is written by AI. I see this style of informational writing all over the place
32.
by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
I like using LLMs and one of the main things I'm working on would be impossible for me to tackle without them, but I do think they cause some skills to atrophy despite being a big productivity booster overall.
33.
by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
I think some people are drawn to technical careers because they like details and others are drawn to them because they like systems (now people are drawn for money too, but I'm talking about people who are more technically oriented). M
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by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
In college I used mathematica a lot while taking linear algebra. I ended up having to relearn a lot of that math later since I never really understood it at a deep level, although I was able to use it and apply it under class conditions. I
35.
by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
I would bet that how your brain stores information that you read from long-form text is very different from how it stores information you acquire from chatting with an LLM. When I read something challenging or new to me I spend a lot of tim
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by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
Fable works very well for me on a moderately large codebase. I have had to correct it a few times or point it on the right track, but given how much faster it is at programming than I am that's a very minor issue (and most of these err
37.
by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
> Also, big companies can choose to run their own models on their own hardware and get better security and privacy as the data doesn't need to leave their own premises. Yes, and then they would be reinventing the company owned data
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by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
That's not really my argument. It's that companies seem happy to pay a premium for a large company to provide complicated software services to them even when there are cheaper competitors.
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by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
> free and low-end eventually wins Not in SaaS which is what LLMs are. You can get VMs for much cheaper than AWS, Microsoft, and Google offer them but large companies (and startups) are happy to pay a premium for the support, reputation,
40.
by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
Yeah, I used to get data corrupting crashes routinely in all sorts of software I use. Now although I occasionally have problems with data not being saved or entered twice, etc. it's been a long time since I lost more than a few minutes
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by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
Seems like this is basically the same theory as what happened in the late 90s internet boom. Lots of speculative investment, over build out of core technology like fiber networks, then a crash, and an eventual recovery where that additional
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by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
I think the creative outlets will just go into different directions. For example when the camera was invented it caused a crisis in painting since now you could accurately capture reality. So then you had impressionism and all the other -is
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by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago
My comment is not directly responding to the essay, but it got me thinking about about how agentic programming is much more akin to management than it is to actual programming. Managers generally only have a high level idea of what ICs are
44.
Artificial Adventures(scattered-thoughts.net)
2 points by jeffreyrogers 3mo ago|0 comments
45.
by jeffreyrogers 4mo ago
The €25k working capital requirement seems a little prescriptive to me (in the US there is nothing like that for non-finance industries, although some businesses need bonds which pay clients/customers if you fail to perform), but it&#x
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The Affordability Discourse(thedispatch.com)
3 points by jeffreyrogers 4mo ago|1 comments
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AI-Native Firms(twitter.com)
2 points by jeffreyrogers 4mo ago|0 comments
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by jeffreyrogers 4mo ago
I'm sort of an AI skeptic but I have been seeing this guy's essays for years now and he has always been super pessimistic on AI progress. I think a much more reasoned critique of AI is that of Tyler Cowen, whose argument is basica
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by jeffreyrogers 5mo ago
There have been a few proposals to close that loophole. The main reason it exists is because debt isn't counted as income since it has to be repaid.
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by jeffreyrogers 5mo ago
> What would you consider a legitimate use case for one? Setting aside money to pay for a relative who can't provide for themselves, protecting assets if you are professional who faces high chance of being sued (e.g. surgeon), provi
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by jeffreyrogers 5mo ago
Perpetual trusts are different from irrevocable trusts, which have legitimate use cases. I don't really see how irrevocable trusts would be gotten rid of. In most states all trusts are irrevocable by default and there is a huge body of
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by jeffreyrogers 5mo ago
I think the limit it can reach without carried forward losses is 20% because that's the top long-term capital gains tax rate. The other thing I can think of is if you sell a QSBS business, then your capital gains are taxed at 0, and yo
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by jeffreyrogers 5mo ago
There are all kinds of irrevocable trusts that exist to remove assets from your taxable estate so that they can be passed to heirs without paying estate tax. Raising the estate tax (which is already 40%) would just make planning to use thes
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by jeffreyrogers 5mo ago
I find him more interesting when he talks about non-AI topics. Lots of other interesting people are like this too. I'd rather get my knowledge on AI from people who have unique insights into it. Scott has a lot of unique perspectives o
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Reactions to "We Have Learned Nothing"(reactionwheel.net)
3 points by jeffreyrogers 5mo ago|0 comments
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by jeffreyrogers 5mo ago
I don't think it's obvious that you were talking about health insurance, which I consider fairly distinct from property, casualty, liability, and life insurance, which are all quite large markets in themselves. The reason I made a
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by jeffreyrogers 5mo ago
What does a better insurance process look like? Outside of health insurance, which is complicated for a variety of reasons, most insurance is pretty easy to procure. I got an umbrella policy recently and it took about 30 minutes of talking
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by jeffreyrogers 6mo ago
Can you point me to an example then? It's not linked in the article as far as I can tell and it's not easy to find on their website if it's there. I don't count simulations because I used to work with simulations regular
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by jeffreyrogers 6mo ago
They've never translated it to the real world though. So saying the problem is "too easy" when they have no public (as far as I know) demonstration that they've solved that problem is a stretch.
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by jeffreyrogers 6mo ago
> But frontier models have become really good, and running vending machines is too easy for them now. Wasn't their previous attempt at running vending machines unprofitable? Not aware of any demonstration that it can actually run th

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