irq11

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61.
by irq11 6y ago
If you’re arguing that I’m consistent and factual, then I give up. You got me. ICU capacity wasn’t abnormal months ago. I just provided you with evidence of that. It isn’t abnormal now, either. Stop it with the hysteria about raw death co
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by irq11 6y ago
Don’t know who you think you’re talking to, or why you think this is a rebuttal to a factual statement. Hospital utilization is pretty much in line with seasonal levels: https://mobile.twitter.com/justin_hart/status&#x2
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by irq11 6y ago
Almost no areas are seeing above-average utilization of hospital or ICU beds. It’s a media narrative that doesn’t hold up to scrutiny. ICUs routinely run at 90% capacity during the winter. Right now, most states are below this.
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by irq11 6y ago
The odds that you die after getting hit by a bus are presumably quite high.
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by irq11 6y ago
” You can look at which regions introduced mask mandates when and see what statistical result that seems to give on the number of covid cases. There have been an awful lot of studies on this topic” ...all of which written in the spring, w
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by irq11 6y ago
Nationwide in the US in 2020, 7,151 people under the age of 45 have died after Covid diagnosis. Under the age of 25, only 528 people have died. During the same time period, over 50,000 people under age 25 have died from all causes: https:&
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by irq11 6y ago
> You don’t know you passed the peak until you clearly passed the peak. What manner of logic is this? Look at the plot: the daily case numbers are in decline . I don’t know what will happen three weeks from now, but I know that it’s fac
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by irq11 6y ago
> Who is we? Is it epidemiologists? Because I think they would disagree with you. So basically, people who agree with you are “epidemiologists”, and people who show you facts you don’t like are “anti-science”. What’s infuriating is when
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by irq11 6y ago
> Except for Sweden, where it kept climbing and climbing, funny. Sweden’s cases started rising in early November, peaked in mid-November, and are now in clear decline: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countr
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by irq11 6y ago
How civil. Oregon’s restrictions were no more or less strict than, say, New York City. In New York, gyms are open, dining is open. New York is currently at 20 per 100k cases per day. Portland is at 100 per 100k. I suppose this means that Ne
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by irq11 6y ago
That’s the theory that people have traditionally advanced, yes. Is there any evidence that capturing heavier droplets has any material effect on transmission? No. And we know that transmission is driven by aerosols now. Aerosols are not hea
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by irq11 6y ago
It strains credulity to believe that masks provide protection in one direction, but not the other.
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by irq11 6y ago
San Francisco has imposed unrelenting, draconian business closures for most of 2020, and only barely allowed re-opening of a few classes of business in late summer before closing them again in the fall. The city has seen a mass exodus among
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by irq11 6y ago
It isn’t misleading in any way: the parent was talking about mask rules in Oregon, asserting that they make all the difference. Yet cases are going up, all over Oregon, and especially in the places with the most compliance. The fact that ca
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by irq11 6y ago
The graphs I linked use the Covid Tracking Project API. The data is not manipulated in any way.
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by irq11 6y ago
> Much of it is due to private gatherings without masks, gyms, and maybe bars and restaurants. Prove it. When cases go down, it’s because of masks. When they go up in the same place, it’s because people suddenly stopped wearing them , b
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by irq11 6y ago
The problem is, there is no “how it’s done” to point to. All of the east asian countries did radically different things. Taiwan slammed it’s borders shut before cases got into the country, and hasn’t done much else. Korea adopted large-scal
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by irq11 6y ago
Oregon’s cases are skyrocketing: https://covid-19.direct/state/OR Much of this is in Portland: https://covid-19.direct/county/OR/Multnomah
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by irq11 6y ago
The flu kills tens of thousands of people a year - disproportionately many of whom are young, unlike SARS-CoV2 - and is a transmissible disease. Driving kills hundreds of thousands of innocent people a year. Where is the line when it’s OK t
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by irq11 6y ago
” If you see test positivity rate remaining low but cases increasing - which we do in many areas with sufficient testing - then it does suggest more people are getting the virus.” No, it suggests that you’re doing more testing, and findi
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by irq11 6y ago
There has been a slight uptick in weekly deaths, roughly on par with what was observed in the last week of September. Given the trend of the line and the delayed reporting from most states, it’s more accurate to say that deaths have flatt
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by irq11 6y ago
So, your only response is to make an insult based on my comment history. What a compelling, “high brow” response.
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by irq11 6y ago
So? The OP observed that the most severe effects were in a very small population of hospitalized patients. You fixated on a (plausible) hypothesis made that this could be due to sedation, and used it to reject the entire argument, even thou
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by irq11 6y ago
And when you look at the data (Figures 2,3), you’ll see that “substantial” is a subjective term. For patients who had minor illness and recovered at home, the measured impacts were a fraction of those who spent time in the hospital. In some
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by irq11 6y ago
A bigger problem on HN these days is the highbrow lowbrow dismissal, wherein people come up with fancy-sounding reasons for rejecting comments, that are actually themselves lazy/incorrect arguments. For example: when the paper itsel
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by irq11 6y ago
The paper you’re criticizing was upheld by many other subsequent papers, around the world, which have found similar IFR estimates. The methodological criticisms of the paper that you’re making, while relevant, in no way invalidate the work.
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by irq11 6y ago
The numbers you cite aren’t 10x higher than median. Observing that mortality is above median doesn’t prove that the virus is the cause of those excess deaths (e.g. we know that there were a lot of unreported heart attacks during a the sam
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by irq11 6y ago
“ People who have already secured good jobs, impressive internships, or prestigious university degrees would much rather coast on those credentials than be challenged for a few hours during an interview. This feels good if you’ve already m
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by irq11 6y ago
”That's fine. We can look at entire states. 0.18% of the entire population of New Jersey has died from Covid. 0.17% of the entire population of New York has died from Covid. And does anyone think nearly the entire population of NJ or
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by irq11 6y ago
”Even the CDC puts the IFR around 0.65%. And, for example, you've got multiple boroughs in NYC with hundreds of deaths each that have exceeded a population fatality rate of 0.5%.” No, it doesn’t. You’re cherry-picking old data, and i

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