hntrader

26 ms·

241.
by hntrader 6y ago
That's a misunderstanding of the slippery slope logical fallacy. The slippery slope fallacy is when someone says that the causal chain A to B to C will necessarily play out. It's not a fallacy if they're arguing instead for
242.
by hntrader 6y ago
What do you think of the claims of user "corty" elsewhere in this thread, who seems to say that nuclear isn't unsuitable for this situation?
243.
by hntrader 6y ago
I'm averse to making a big change like stripping limited liability when there's easier and less complicated first steps: much larger fine size and executive accountability.
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by hntrader 6y ago
Shareholders already do get a penalty. The company gets fined which impacts future profitability and the stock price, thereby impacting shareholders. Also, most often the shareholders of large companies have no knowledge of illegal behaviou
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by hntrader 6y ago
> and also energy storage. Precisely, that's my point. The costings of the OP ignore that part.
246.
by hntrader 6y ago
"four times as expensive as wind" This isn't a valid comparison, since wind isn't capable of base load supply. You would need to factor in storage costs to make the comparison valid.
247.
by hntrader 6y ago
"you pretending that racism doesn't exist" They didn't say that racism doesn't exist, those are words you've put into their mouth. They said that you're buying into the same identity politics narrative tha
248.
by hntrader 6y ago
"That doesn’t harm investing" Not true. The cost will be largely passed on from market maker to investor through bid offer spread.
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by hntrader 6y ago
"easy for casino table games" I don't believe EV is easier to estimate in poker than trading. You need to estimate hand range and the consequences of actions later in the hand. It's extremely complicated.
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by hntrader 6y ago
Gambling isn't necessarily zero-sum in utility, which is what matters. There's entertainment value for example. It'd be like saying the foreign exchange market is zero sum, because one party loses HKD and another gains USD. T
251.
by hntrader 6y ago
"You can't say a bet is negative value when you don't know the odds" You can. The whole idea of E(V) in trading, gambling, etc, is that V is an unknown distribution, and we're trying to estimate the mean of it using
252.
by hntrader 6y ago
"Top poker players are still gambling." This all hinges on how we define "gambling". A lot of top poker pros do not subscribe to the definition that includes them as gamblers, since colloquially "gambling" isn&
253.
by hntrader 6y ago
Insurance is negative EV only in dollars, not necessary in utility. Since most have a risk averse utility function, it's often positive EV in utility.
254.
by hntrader 6y ago
I'm not attempting to make a value judgement about one commodity vs another, I'm just outlining what is the necessary and sufficient condition for something to be short-able, which I think is widely misunderstood (I say this becau
255.
by hntrader 6y ago
Chairs aren't a fungible commodity and chairs depreciate, which are the two reasons you can't short chairs. If chairs were fungible and didn't depreciate, then they would be shortable just like stocks, but you wouldn't b
256.
by hntrader 6y ago
Rare coins that are now valued as artefacts were once monetary assets. So I'm not sure that this distinction is meaningful. BTC's value now could come from it acting as a store of value for example. Or its value could come from th
257.
by hntrader 6y ago
That's an excellent read. Highly recommended to anyone else perusing this thread.
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by hntrader 6y ago
"it's scarce, therefore its worth something" That's not the argument being made. My paintings are scarce but they're worthless. Lots and lots of scarce things are worthless, and rightfully so. "bring people som
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by hntrader 6y ago
"no underlying intrinsic value" How does that differ to investing in fine art, scarce wine, old/rare stamps and coins, limited edition/novelty items, historical artefacts, or even gold? There's loads of things that
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by hntrader 6y ago
It also illustrates the lack of competition due to US regulations preventing foreign exchanges (many of them signficiantly larger and cheaper than Coinbase) from serving US customers. Very few people outside the US trade on Coinbase because
261.
by hntrader 6y ago
Using twitter lists might solve that?
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by hntrader 6y ago
Many very good points. One thing to note is that in these real-life examples you've laid out, there's a non-trivial difference in effort and action between choosing to save people (e.g changing your entire career path to earn more
263.
by hntrader 6y ago
The Trolley Problem is a good example of the status quo bias and the opt-in/opt-out framing bias, and it shows how our moral reasoning can be driven by cheap heuristics. Someone else (in this case, the experimenter) has chosen that A (
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by hntrader 6y ago
7-figures per-year with annual returns of about 100% (not including the capital they use on margin), which is fairly typical for a proprietary short-term strategy
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by hntrader 6y ago
It only shows the probability of observing either that statistic, or something even more extreme, under the null distribution. The implication that we can then "reject the null hypothesis" is more parlance and heuristic than anyth
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by hntrader 6y ago
Got it. Something is off in the facts of that story for sure. She left Xinjiang in 2019, and the article says that she handed her children off as she left. Then the article claims she hasn't seen her children for years. These facts can
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by hntrader 6y ago
"Being too rational - over thinking, ruminating" Why is overthinking and ruminating an extension of rationality? Overthinking is a departure from rationality rather than an example of rationality, and ruminating is a psychological
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by hntrader 6y ago
There's lots of short-term trading strategies that can work without L2 data. I know 2 people running short term strategies making 7 figures consistently who don't rely on L2. It's a dogma in certain high frequency trading fi
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by hntrader 6y ago
It's not clear to me from the quotes you provided why you think she's lying? She said she was sterilized in 2019 at the age of 36 after having given birth to five or more children. I don't see anything especially suspicious t
270.
by hntrader 6y ago
I'm also highly sceptical of economics as a discipline, but still can't think of who would be more appropriate to work alongside an ecologist in order to design practical policies. Economists aren't a monolith. As the other

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