fspeech

11 ms·

121.
by fspeech 2y ago
Recent developments like V3, R1 and S1 are actually clarifying and pointing towards more understandable, efficient and therefore more accessible models.
122.
by fspeech 2y ago
Unless the world demand for these raw material goes down or production elsewhere goes up someone will still buy these raw materials. If tarriff is high enough to force US to source from and Canada to sell to more distant places the world wi
123.
by fspeech 2y ago
The key question is: has demand elasticity increased for Nvidia cards? An increase in elasticity means people are more willing to wait for hardware price to drop because they can do more with existing hardware. Elasticity could increase eve
124.
by fspeech 2y ago
That's not how commodities are priced. Commodities are priced at the marginal cost of production.
125.
by fspeech 2y ago
Inference can be done on much more diverse hardware.
126.
by fspeech 2y ago
You need to also look at valuation and how much growth justifies that valuation.
127.
by fspeech 2y ago
You are not taking into account why people are willing to pay exceedingly high prices for GPUs now and that the underlying reason may have been taken away.
128.
by fspeech 2y ago
It doesn't make sense to compare individual models. A better way is to look at total compute consumed, normalized by the output. In the end what counts is the cost of providing tokens.
129.
by fspeech 2y ago
But why would the customers accept the high prices and high gross margin of Nvidia if they no longer fear missing out with insufficient hardware?
130.
by fspeech 2y ago
If you normalize Nvidia's gross margin and take into account of competitors sure. But its current high margin is driven by Big Tech FOMO. Do keep in mind that 90% margin or 10x cost to 50% margin or 2x cost is a 5x price reduction.
131.
by fspeech 2y ago
Since intermediate steps of reasoning are hard to verify they only award final results. Yet that produces enough signal to produce more productive reasoning over time. In a way when pigeons are virtual one can afford to have a lot more of t
132.
by fspeech 2y ago
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/NVDA/nvidia/gross-... GPU prices could be a lot lower and still give the manufacturer a more "normal" 50% gross margin and the average researcher could
133.
by fspeech 2y ago
It does if the spend drives GPU prices so high that more researchers can't afford to use them. And DS demonstrated what a small team of researchers can do with a moderate amount of GPUs.
134.
by fspeech 2y ago
Not necessarily if you are pushing against a data wall. One could ask: after adjusting for DS efficiency gains how much more compute has OpenAI spent? Is their model correspondingly better? Or even DS could easily afford more than $6 millio
135.
by fspeech 2y ago
How could more competition be bad? Sure some startups' business plans no longer work and have to pivot but many more startups now have access to better products at lower cost.
136.
by fspeech 2y ago
Not sure why it's called grandiose. They are worried that supplies of jet engines could be cut off. Their own version doesn't have to be better if the alternative is no jet engine.
137.
by fspeech 2y ago
Yet banning it creates the largest opportunity for manipulation whereby Trump gets to play the hero to a very large number of Americans.
138.
by fspeech 2y ago
So many people focus only on TikTok instead of their fellow citizens' rights that are being trampled upon. Even NYT writers happily insinuate that all will be forgotten in no time. Cutting people's social links is not benign. An A
139.
by fspeech 2y ago
Not sure why you say "simply". There is nothing simple about it: there are issues of forced technology transfers; there is the problem that TikTok is a global platform and revenue generation is across the border. These are just th
140.
by fspeech 2y ago
There is nothing inherently good about wafer scale. It's actually harder to dissipate heat and enable hybrid bonding with DRAM. So the gp is entirely correct that you need to actually show higher silicon utilization to be even consider
141.
by fspeech 2y ago
It's a new world where the capital owners just want more dollars. The trade is to sell dollars to those who comply with US's wishes.
142.
by fspeech 2y ago
You can get the technical report from Deepseek by Googling. Their reports are very well regarded.
143.
by fspeech 2y ago
It depends. Technology products have been deflating for decades. It is actually what keeps the overall inflation in check.
144.
by fspeech 2y ago
"then why not look it up?" Why do people write literature reviews? You write about what you think is significant.
145.
by fspeech 2y ago
Published papers and patents are public information.
146.
by fspeech 2y ago
If you want to have superhuman performance like AlphaZero series you need a verifier (valuation network) to tell you if you are on the right track. Lean (proof checker) in general can act as a trusted critic.
147.
by fspeech 2y ago
That's a very static view of the affairs. Once you have a master AI, at a minimum you can use it to train cheaper slightly less capable AIs. At the other end the master AI can train to become even smarter.
148.
by fspeech 2y ago
This analysis makes very little sense. While US has been restricting certain fab equipment for advanced nodes the restriction on actual chips only affects very few categories. The affected like GPU and HBM numbers at most in the millions an
149.
by fspeech 2y ago
China tried to promote TDSCDMA for 3G, which also didn't work. At least they didn't make it their exclusive choice. In their more successful cases they didn't pick winners.
150.
by fspeech 2y ago
Japan does not have a big enough domestic market, which means their industrial policy requires a lot of foreign cooperation to be effective. Once others started seeing them as a threat their game was over.

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