etempleton

8 ms·

91.
by etempleton 5mo ago
Anthropic is not profitable and does not expect to be revenue even until 2028. They are just losing less billions per year than everyone else.
92.
by etempleton 5mo ago
The deal with Anthropic gives me more pause about the whole market. More circular spending. They are all propping each other up making it look like they have more revenue than they really have. I think Open AIs S-1 will be just as crazy. I
93.
by etempleton 5mo ago
This thing is going to explode. From this I have to imagine OpenAIs numbers are also going to be much worse than people imagine / what has been shared.
94.
by etempleton 5mo ago
SpaceX would be an interesting IPO without XAI. It is hemorrhaging money and is in what, 6th place in the AI race while hemorrhaging X subscribers every month. Theoretically the company could focus on what is profitable and be strong fundam
95.
by etempleton 5mo ago
The whole AI world really is completely circular spending where every one loses money along the way. The only one really making any money is Nvidia.
96.
by etempleton 5mo ago
Yes, but those targets are to reach their own timeline for breakeven and if they aren’t able to break even by 2030 I can’t imagine when they will
97.
by etempleton 5mo ago
OpenAI is missing their own revenue targets. There are worrying signs that growth is starting to plateau or diversify across players in a way where not everyone will be able to eat.
98.
by etempleton 5mo ago
This is absolutely what I think will happen eventually, and I think that becomes a huge problem for Open AI and Anthropic because I don’t think that allows investors to make back their money.
99.
by etempleton 5mo ago
Google, Microsoft, etc will be fine. But their stock market valuation may drop substantially.
100.
by etempleton 5mo ago
Or at least profit margins.
101.
by etempleton 5mo ago
In this scenario at minimum three fail and probably all four since Google is also in this fight. Supports the bubble thesis.
102.
by etempleton 5mo ago
Well, I think he is probably right about this one. The costs are just too high and the spend is entirely too high. If the build out and demand is as advertised component prices will keep going up and costs will too offsetting any revenue ga
103.
by etempleton 5mo ago
Advertising may be things we don’t typically think of as advertising such as grocery store end caps and such.
104.
by etempleton 5mo ago
People like to claim you can measure advertising and marketing directly and for most products and services that is just not true. But executives think it must be true and so demand it and so they end up hiring / going with the best lia
105.
by etempleton 5mo ago
My guess is they have to wait to measure the downstream impact of their marketing. And marketing attribution is notoriously fuzzy. If a tv ad runs on may 1 what is the attribution window to someone buying a Hershey bar? How do you know they
106.
by etempleton 5mo ago
This seems to be how many PhD programs go. Almost all want to quit in the last couple years despite the time invested already. Few want to stay in academia, because they have been abused and used and realize that the same would happened if
107.
by etempleton 5mo ago
The main change is significantly more sugar and artificial flavoring. funny how now Gatorade is introducing low and no sugar variants. Perhaps they should just sell an original recipe variation.
108.
by etempleton 5mo ago
Inflation, particularly of necessities (such as fuel) and food staples dramatically impacts low income earners more.
109.
by etempleton 6mo ago
Oh, I know, but they could have named themselves anything. They believed in the metaverse, They thought it was the next big thing. The same way Zuckerburg thought voice assistants, and AI will be a thing.
110.
by etempleton 6mo ago
I am sure buying OpenAI would be the thing that does it.
111.
by etempleton 6mo ago
GM was bailed out because of the potential loss of US manufacturing jobs and the fact that auto factories can be converted to build other things in times of war. There was also no readily available buyer for GM as Ford was also hurting and
112.
by etempleton 6mo ago
I disagree that they would be bailed out. The contagion and impact on the larger economy would be somewhat limited. They would more than likely just be sold to the highest bidder. The US would certainly dictate that the buyer is a US compan
113.
by etempleton 6mo ago
OpenAI was already projected to burn money at a ludicrous rate and now the news is they are going to burn it even faster. I just don’t see how this ends well for anyone. Regardless of what you think of AI it is apparently entirely too expen
114.
by etempleton 6mo ago
It is possible! Anthropic is probably more in-line with the way Microsoft thinks about AI.
115.
by etempleton 6mo ago
Naming your company off a product that doesn't really exist yet and then ultimately fails is a pretty crazy and stupid thing to do. A bit cart before horse.
116.
by etempleton 6mo ago
This strikes me as a pullback by Microsoft. Coupled with some of the other news coming out of Microsoft it appears they are hoping to have "good enough" AI in their products. I think Microsoft knows they can win a lot of business
117.
by etempleton 6mo ago
I think everyone is incentivized to keep the music playing and the party going with AI. Because the alternative is a massive correction like we have rarely seen. What if AI is never good or cheap enough to reach significant profitability?
118.
by etempleton 6mo ago
In a rationale business yes, but when everything is basically some form of growth signal to investors to extract even more money from them before the music stops it doesn’t matter.
119.
by etempleton 6mo ago
I see what the author is saying and I agree to some extent, but I think the F35 is mostly irrelevant in terms of the argument being made. I think it is needed and does it's job as a deterrent. The F35 means that that no one can really
120.
by etempleton 6mo ago
US is probably second only to Taiwan in terms of capacity to build advanced semiconductors and the gap is now closing as Intel gets back on track.

More ›