energy123

5 ms·

91.
by energy123 3mo ago
I don't envy the talented young research mathematicians starting their career now. While there's still space to distinguish yourself (inventing completely new mathematics), the path to recognition is narrow.
92.
by energy123 3mo ago
> how could they trust me as a member of their team? I might turn on them next. This is also why you shouldn't gossip negatively about anyone, and you shouldn't make jokes about employee termination. People will view you as a
93.
by energy123 3mo ago
Conflating intelligence with qualia is quite the assumption. HN is really not a good place for serious philosophy discussions.
94.
by energy123 3mo ago
Confirmatory of Sutskever's view that predicting the next token forces a deep understanding. To effectively predict the next token it needs a good idea of what comes after the next token.
95.
by energy123 3mo ago
I use the strongest model (5.5 now 5.6 sol) on the highest reasoning effort with /fast for everything. With a $200 pro sub I can't even use my weekly limit. And it's faster than using a weaker model that makes more mistakes w
96.
by energy123 3mo ago
> Dramatic difference Isn't this just the difference between getting 0 right and getting 1 right?
97.
by energy123 4mo ago
They do. One guy with at least 7 figure PnL is a well known forecaster, SemioticRivalry.
98.
by energy123 4mo ago
So who is bribing Malaysian officials to give tax breaks to foreign DCs? Be specific.
99.
by energy123 4mo ago
Good points. It can match willing buyers and sellers of basic household labor that couldn't have happened previously due to economic frictions resulting from distance. This can increase the size of the pie for everyone.
100.
by energy123 4mo ago
Why does Malaysia give tax breaks to data centers?
101.
by energy123 4mo ago
The DCs are going up across middle income countries: industrial zones in South East Asia, India and Morocco, and also UAE/Saudi. Anger towards DCs are pertinent from a politics-in-rich-country angle, but it has no relevance on the over
102.
by energy123 4mo ago
It's not a bad business idea, but has dystopian vibes. The human doesn't have to travel to the job site, they don't need to be paid a wage that allows them to exist in an expensive city, and they can watch N screens simultane
103.
by energy123 4mo ago
You have a very childish view of the world if you think insulting words is what counts, while ignoring China buying far more Russian oil, China reneging on their memorandum with Ukraine (but somehow "China does what it says it will do&
104.
by energy123 4mo ago
I see no reason to believe they are. China is poorer than Taiwan per-capita despite being the same culture. They recovered a little after Deng reduced the amount of centralization, but they are still lagging behind.
105.
by energy123 4mo ago
This is called the Local Knowledge Problem. It's why centralization can't work and has never worked, at least not until we have some ASI they can overcome it.
106.
by energy123 4mo ago
China didn't renege on its treaty with Ukraine who is in Europe? American isn't sanctioning Russia's oil? China isn't buying Russia's oil?
107.
by energy123 4mo ago
> China has not been threatening military annexation They've been doing military annexation right now in the South China Sea. > China does not randomly start trade (or real) wars. The invasion of Vietnam? The subsidization of
108.
by energy123 4mo ago
That's why I said "over the shared frontier" in my first post and more precisely in my second post I said "over the overlapping x values for which both are defined." It was a claim that applies to a range of x-value
109.
by energy123 4mo ago
> by definition the entire frontier would be occupied by Opus. But the entire frontier is occupied by Opus under any reasonable interpolation scheme (piecewise linear which is what they've done, and most reasonable spline or polyn
110.
by energy123 4mo ago
No, that's apples and oranges. You need to compare Sonnet5's 79% with the interpolated Opus4.8's 79%.
111.
by energy123 4mo ago
You're the second person that has said this but I cannot understand why you are interpreting the "Agentic computer use" graph in this manner. The graph shows that Opus is cheaper than Sonnet for the same performance. Unless I
112.
by energy123 4mo ago
No it doesn't? It's worse than Opus across the whole shared frontier on both plots.
113.
by energy123 4mo ago
The arguable caveat is Sonnet may run faster (although this isn't known for sure, due to more tokens being used for the same task), so you can potentially get more done in a synchronous iterative workflow I don't really believe th
114.
by energy123 4mo ago
It's interesting, but the usual disclaimers apply with factor research - Does it replicate internationally? - Is it explained by another phenomenon such as the beta anomaly or small cap premium. Implication: large caps with high beta a
115.
by energy123 4mo ago
This is wrong. There is no lookahead bias in the factor.
116.
by energy123 4mo ago
What you said does not technically contradict what I said. We have to decide what it is that we wish to measure. I do not pay attention to the "decommissioning" statistic, because a binary on/off switch is an arbitrary thresh
117.
by energy123 4mo ago
They're not really building anything other than renewables. Nuclear is a rounding error and new coal is just replacing old coal.
118.
by energy123 4mo ago
Take home tests were always rife with cheating, although it's probably worse now. Teachers really need to stop doing it, it's so destructive to create a metric that tracks how well you can cheat and lie, and basically forces you t
119.
by energy123 4mo ago
Anecdote but I gave Gemini Pro an image of an individual with Herpes Zoster which the doctor said was something else. Gemini gave the correct diagnosis which allowed for correct treatment and cure. I don't understand why doctors don&#x
120.
by energy123 4mo ago
And yet they are moving ships despite Shahed attacks that occurred yesterday, so by this empirical observation, you must conclude that you are operating under a flawed worldview.

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