drob518

7 ms·

151.
by drob518 3mo ago
I think the point is that it’s not showing up on the standard financial filings. If you were to pull the annual reports for these companies, you wouldn’t see it. That doesn’t mean it’s impossible to find it. Obviously, it is otherwise the a
152.
by drob518 3mo ago
Immediate reaction is that it seems to be a bit behind Meta Muse Spark 1.1 performance at approximately the Deepseek v4 Flash price point. That's quite good given Muse Spark benchmarks a lot better than Deepseek v4 Flash (assuming benc
153.
by drob518 3mo ago
Typically, the inner loop of an interpreter is all about keeping the branch predictor happy and trying to fit in L1 cache as much as possible. So, falling through makes sense. I’m also curious whether a simple check of a flag and a conditio
154.
by drob518 3mo ago
That’s the fear.
155.
by drob518 3mo ago
But they make up for it by shipping it late.
156.
by drob518 3mo ago
Yep, agreed. They still are not releasing anything frontier-class (Gemini Pro) at this point. Feels to me that they keep getting scooped by others (e.g. Kimi 3) and then are retrenching.
157.
by drob518 3mo ago
I agree that there’s huge value in being the generic category name (see Kleenex). That said, Google and Apple are going to roll this into every phone and tablet and laptop/Chromebook. Yea, OpenAI can release a phone app (already have),
158.
by drob518 3mo ago
My personal feeling is to not move to ASICs just yet. Things are still pretty frothy right now, so I would probably wait 6-12 months. At some point the froth always calms down. At that point, commit to ASICs. That said, I’m also not totally
159.
by drob518 3mo ago
It’s owned by whoever directed the AI to write it.
160.
by drob518 3mo ago
Right, but the AI isn’t the one who would actually claim copyright here. It would be the human using AI to accelerate the coding. And the human does have standing.
161.
by drob518 3mo ago
Exactly. A fast, cheap model, particularly with the right harness and loops, might take us a lot farther than we might guess.
162.
by drob518 3mo ago
Of course not. But many tasks won’t require Fable 7 level intelligence and many people won’t want to pay for it. Honestly, I’m using Deepseek v4 Flash a LOT lately to do more mundane tasks because it’s so nearly free and I don’t need Fable
163.
by drob518 3mo ago
Sure, but you’re undoubtedly the tip of the spear. Lots of people don’t need that.
164.
by drob518 3mo ago
The churn is an issue. For a while there, it felt like we were getting a new number format every month or two (e.g., fp4, ternary, etc.). That level of innovation works against moving things into hardware, or at least you need to be willing
165.
by drob518 3mo ago
I see a future where lots of models can plan a vacation for me, not just ChatGPT. Saying that there is brand equity in the ChatGPT brand feels a lot like saying there’s a brand equity in the MySpace and AOL 25 years ago. Google in particula
166.
by drob518 3mo ago
Right. Arguing with the original article, not you, my counterpoint would be, “Sure, if they’re able to do that. But so could any of the other model-only competitors.” The best you can say today is that they have announced an intention to do
167.
by drob518 3mo ago
> More importantly, as sustainable long-term businesses, model-only providers are particularly at risk. Knowledge Atlas, Moonshot Labs, and Anthropic face defensibility challenges versus OpenAI, Alibaba, SpaceX, Meta, and Google. Hm. How
168.
by drob518 3mo ago
Yea, Flash is quite fast, though looking at model data on Open Router some of the other models are quite fast (Muse Spark, Grok, etc). I’m sure all these models have been trained on my conventionally published books as well, but I don’t car
169.
by drob518 3mo ago
Exactly. If I could upvote you twice, I would.
170.
by drob518 3mo ago
If you read the media from 1998 - 1999, there was than overarching message that EVERYTHING was changing. EVERY business needed to be on the Internet right now. Any business that wasn’t investing in the internet was going to be slaughtered.
171.
by drob518 3mo ago
Yea, I forgot a big one: blockchain.
172.
by drob518 3mo ago
> Most of us on some level felt confident that AI would completely revolutionise our society. Seriously? Maybe I’m just getting old, but having lived through the dot-com hype in the 1990s, the XML hype in the 2000s, and the cloud hype in
173.
by drob518 3mo ago
I’d like a “Bonsai 2.8T.” That is, something that is near the Fable/Sol/K3 class, but capable of running locally on consumer hardware.
174.
by drob518 3mo ago
Yea the performance/price ratio for Deepseek is off the charts. I’ve been using V4 Flash a lot lately and it’s quite good.
175.
by drob518 3mo ago
I don’t think you’ll get full Fable performance at that level, at least for a while, but I’ve been watching some of the 1-bit models (e.g. Bonsai) with interest. Perhaps we can drive parameter count up on local models while still keeping me
176.
by drob518 3mo ago
That and the actual algorithms that power AI are well known and there doesn’t seem to be any secret sauce at that level.
177.
by drob518 3mo ago
I think there are two things happening here. 1. There is a “space race” mentality happening at the national level with respect to AI. So, China is committing to the race. 2. Even if the race turns out to be a dud, China is hoovering up mass
178.
by drob518 3mo ago
Better than average chance I’d say. I suspect they are hoovering up EVERYTHING that gets sent to them. Whether that’s a problem or not depends on your data. I do wonder how many security tokens they get in the stream on a daily basis.
179.
by drob518 3mo ago
Cf Microsoft v Intel circa 1995
180.
by drob518 3mo ago
Thanks for the link. I need to evolve my own system in this direction.

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