dragontamer

912 ms·

3811.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Will that work if say... Tesla has to sell their BTC to you know, pay their bills? Some time ago, Tesla entered into $1.5 Billion in Bitcoin. They need that money to build cars and factories in the long term, they had the money raised from
3812.
by dragontamer 5y ago
GBTC exists and seems to be tracking BTC's price successfully.
3813.
by dragontamer 5y ago
2008 was a period of deflation. Of course inflation hedges would drop, when inflation was negative. Oil, housing, car prices all dropped at that time. Prices dropped so low that companies like General Motors went bankrupt. ------- We face a
3814.
by dragontamer 5y ago
You can't be a store of value if your value drops randomly. You especially can't be an inflation hedge if you drop while inflation goes up.
3815.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Store of value. US money printer. Inflation hedge. Do you think we forget what the crypto-bros said just a few months ago?
3816.
by dragontamer 5y ago
US equity doesn't pretend to be a low risk investment vehicle resistant to inflation worries.
3817.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Pretty easy. Rdtsc is the read timestamp counter instruction. Every .25nanoseconds, that counter goes up by 1 (assuming 4GHz CPU) Write 32kB of data and measure how many nanoseconds pass. Done for L1 cache. Do the same for L2 cache size. Th
3818.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Moderna, Rivian, Peloton, Wework (not factories but buying up real estate), Intel, TSMC, ASML. Even things like Backblaze buy up hard drives and data centers to sell services to us in the future. Buying up thing to make more money later is
3819.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Let's continue the example. Established owns a $1 billion factory (equipment and real estate) to make it's $100/year profits. Growth doesn't own anything yet, they have to build that factory before they get their profits
3820.
by dragontamer 5y ago
You are right that I've oversimplified things, but you are wrong about the effects of my oversimplification. What analysis study is the price of factories and associated costs. A growth company (like Rivian) is buying new factories and
3821.
by dragontamer 5y ago
> This example is bad because few companies have fixed potential like earning $200M in nominal dollars. More companies will be able to earn $200M (real year-0 dollars). This suggestion only tilts the argument into my favor. Apple makes 1
3822.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Let's use a realistic example then. In 2014, Tesla raised a ton of money from the stock market to build the Model 3 factory / giga factory. Over the next few years, in a low inflation and low interest rate environment, the investo
3823.
by dragontamer 5y ago
It's the nature of future earnings vs current earnings and how inflation changes that. Let's say you have two companies: 'Established' that makes $100 million/year, and 'Growth' that will make $200 million
3824.
by dragontamer 5y ago
> Myocarditis rates have quantifiably increased over time as more data comes in. Why would you make assumptions that a booster of the same substance would be any different? Because Myocarditis rates have dropped on the 3rd shot. Don&#x27
3825.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Moderna is making a flu + COVID19 shot, under this expectation. If that's to our benefit, then we'll know after its tested. If not, we'll have the capability to refuse the vaccine at that point.
3826.
by dragontamer 5y ago
> That vaccine induced myocarditis rates are now higher than covid induced rates Are you factoring in the fact that myocarditis drops with more boosters? The 2nd shot has the highest myocarditis rate. The 3rd shot has less, and I'd
3827.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Immunity has seemed to wane every 3 to 6 months. Is that not certain? Florida's big Delta-surge was just in August. And yet, Omicron surged through January in the state. In just 5 months, people's natural immunity has collectively
3828.
by dragontamer 5y ago
2^x, not x^2. x^2 is 1, 4, 9, 16, 25. 2^x is 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32
3829.
by dragontamer 5y ago
A "full node" step is 1/2 the area of the previous. Since area is dimension-squared, 28 x 28 == ~800 area, while 20 x 20 == ~400 area. So 28 -> 20 is a "full node" decrease (ie: twice the transistors). ---------
3830.
by dragontamer 5y ago
> What is unique about Youtube is that everything is non-fiction. When was the last time any Youtube success was fictionalized content? "What does the Fox say" is non-fiction? "Baby Shark" is non-fiction? "Gangna
3831.
by dragontamer 5y ago
There's this old idea (~10 years old) of having the USPS become a PKI-token agency, especially because USPS already has the infrastructure to physically deliver items to every house in the USA. These physical tokens can be as simple as
3832.
by dragontamer 5y ago
With discussions coming up about COVID19 antigen tests (aka: "Rapid Tests"), I find that the discussion inevitably leads towards sensitivity and specificity.
3833.
Understanding and using sensitivity, specificity and predictive values (2008)(ncbi.nlm.nih.gov)
2 points by dragontamer 5y ago|1 comments
3834.
by dragontamer 5y ago
It was also widely believed that America's "volunteer force" was a disadvantage. The USA did many firsts. It was the first deployment of M1 Abrams, no one knew if it'd be good (and IIRC, it was considered a waste of mone
3835.
by dragontamer 5y ago
I'm going to "vouch" your post, because its a fine point even if I disagree with it. Rapid tests _always_ had bad sensitivity. Its gotten worse for Omicron, but going from "bad" to "worse" isn't reall
3836.
by dragontamer 5y ago
I'm sure. But the sensitivity of rapid tests were always much much worse than the sensitivity of PCR tests. The original sensitivity of rapid tests were like 60%. Frankly, going from 60% to 40% doesn't change my viewpoint on rapid
3837.
by dragontamer 5y ago
> Tests aren't perfect, since as you said, there seems to be a significant false-negative rate with Omicron Its not even Omicron. Rapid tests always had something like a 40% false-negative rate or something stupidly high. ------ Tha
3838.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Its all about tradeoffs. Rapid tests give you a result within 15 minutes. PCR tests you gotta ship to a lab, and wait maybe 2 or 3 days before they report back to you. I think PCR tests (which nominally take 15 minutes) are the best. But we
3839.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Does anyone know if "18F" was involved with this? The 18F group is the US Government's "elite" IT-team, including web programming. ------- If it wasn't 18F, who did it?
3840.
by dragontamer 5y ago
Agreed. 2U and especially 1U servers are much, much louder than normal computers. Shrinking parts means that the fans need to spin much faster to get sufficient airflow.

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