darawk

27 ms·

241.
by darawk 4y ago
Chinese real estate would be considerably better than crypto company loans, tbh.
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by darawk 4y ago
> If you operate in this industry and haven’t heard of Bitfury, you may have less of a grasp of the landscape than you think. It was created by some of the main insiders and has employed many former government officials. I would have a r
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by darawk 4y ago
> You might well want to criticise the paper, but I think the video is a fair representation of the contents of the paper. I do have criticisms of the paper, but those are milder. They are inherent limitations of the methodology, which t
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by darawk 4y ago
Whatever you think of them, it's extremely important to note that Craig Wright was absolutely not the inventor of Bitcoin.
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by darawk 4y ago
This is theoretically a fair criticism. But note that the 27% vs 0.01% never appears in the NBER paper. Further note the extreme limitations of any clustering based analysis. And finally, note that they do not actually identify individuals,
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by darawk 4y ago
The only way you could possibly measure this is just to look at the distribution of coins among wallets. This is obviously going to count crypto exchanges as single entities, which is absurd. It'd be like counting JPMorgan as a single
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by darawk 4y ago
Ya, I agree with you on all that. I will note however that they only began self-adjudicating in 2011, so on its own this probably isn't a big deal. If the non-delegation principle is expanded by the supreme court though, it could be.
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by darawk 4y ago
They can delegate to agencies. The ruling isn't preventing them from doing that, it's just preventing the adjudication of penalties from being carried out by those agencies. The SEC still gets to make the rules, they just don&#x27
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by darawk 4y ago
The part he quoted was about running a more efficient business (i.e. outcompeting the competition), not being morally better. Markets are generally pretty good at promoting that.
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by darawk 4y ago
Yes, but a holistic test requires a realistic counterfactual. That's the problem. There is no way to evaluate that counterfactual for a human interviewer. It is true that extreme bias/discrimination will be evident, but smaller bi
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by darawk 4y ago
Wiki says his stake was worth 34 million at the time of the acquisition: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Max_Levchin#PayPal So I wonder what was going on there. Maybe some kind of vesting issue?
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by darawk 4y ago
He didn't say anything about intention, though. He just talked about the counterfactual. Disparate impact is about the counterfactual scenario.
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by darawk 4y ago
You're absolutely correct. The total ignorance of HN on all matters of finance is incredibly grating.
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by darawk 4y ago
Nobody compared it to Luna UST. Luna/UST is not the crypto economy, just as Facebook is not the stock market. The general crypto economy and the general stock market have declined similarly in volatility adjusted terms.
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by darawk 4y ago
I think there's also the possibility that Parag is vying to keep his job as CEO, and so he's trying to guess what he thinks will impress Musk, and executing on it while he's still in charge.
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by darawk 4y ago
They do have collateral. There has never been any evidence that they don't. The peg is already re-converged. Just as it has quickly every other time this has happened. It reconverges, unlike UST, because they actually redeem your Tethe
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by darawk 4y ago
That would be a brilliant form of price discrimination.
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by darawk 4y ago
This suggests a new line of business for SPACs: SPAC SPACs. A SPAC who's only purpose is to acquire and then spin out new SPACs.
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by darawk 4y ago
That's exactly why the plot is in log scale. The point is that this period looks unusual despite being rendered in log scale.
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by darawk 4y ago
Ya, I think that's potentially a reasonable position to take. However, if you wanted to be confident in that view I think you'd need to posit some particular reason it ought to be difficult. I at least can't come up with any
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by darawk 4y ago
All of the arguments against it are completely non-serious. I don't think there are many real AI researchers that disagree with the thesis that it is in principle possible to build a machine as intelligent as a human. There is broad di
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by darawk 4y ago
I think it should be pretty clear at this point that we can at least achieve "generalized AI" to the extent that we as humans have it. There is no reason whatsoever to think we can't build a machine at least as intelligent as
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by darawk 4y ago
But the level of inequality has been reduced. Obviously the people at the very top are still going to be very rich. But there is an entire spectrum of wealth that is going to get compressed , which was the original point. When people talk
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by darawk 4y ago
What is "the reality" to which you are referring? Inequality is measured by relative levels of wealth. When the group with the most wealth's wealth declines relative to the group with the least, inequality declines. Are you t
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by darawk 4y ago
It reduces wealth inequality. That was the original claim, which the comment I was responding to denied.
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by darawk 4y ago
The federal funds rate mechanically lowers asset prices. Wealthy people own assets, poor people do not. Lowering the federal funds rate literally mechanically reduces the portfolio value of people that own capital in relation to people who
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by darawk 4y ago
The fed sets the risk free rate. The risk free rate is an input to many other capital allocation decisions across the economy. When the risk free rate is low, you can keep an unprofitable business spinning for far longer. When its higher, c
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by darawk 4y ago
The ACLU used to be a great organization, but it has basically completely abandoned its original mission: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/aclu-free-speech.html The internet archive is definitely wo
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by darawk 4y ago
Does the fact that sometimes graphic artists misinterpret commission requests imply that they are not conscious? People misunderstand each other all the time, and then play an interrogative game to try to synchronize their minds. That is, t
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by darawk 4y ago
That's not how network effects work. Network effects lock users into the platform with the users, regardless of whether a new platform with better features comes along. That's the whole point of a network effect.

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