danny_codes

7 ms·

91.
by danny_codes 3mo ago
So they reduce their prices 50x and their revenue drops to $1B a year? And they're supposed to be worth $1T each? If there is an open model offering at the cost of inference + whatever margin you need to stay alive, then as inference f
92.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
SOTA models can be run by anybody with compute capacity. You can pay for GLM 5.2 inference right now via Fireworks AI and presumably several dozen other providers. So if you don't want vendor lock-in and rug-pulling (Anthropic has chur
93.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Or we could build walkable cities so people can, you know, just walk to the restaurant.
94.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
I'm not sure I understand. The cynical analysis is that SpaceX insiders are dumping on retail at a high valuation. They know the valuation is ridiculous, but are relying on "dumb" retail (think wallstreetbeets level of gambli
95.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
> The vast majority of US retirement savings are already tied to the military sector The defense sector is 2% of the stock market. So if by majority you mean 2%, then that's a reasonable statement.
96.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
I mean we have trillionaires now, budget limitations are a political choice. Perhaps instead of giving all our resources to Elon we can, you know, pay teachers instead.
97.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Billionaires can't have the UK passing sensible taxation policies to curtail the influence of the super-rich. If the UK achieves success in preventing the collapse of their society into a form of feudal poverty, Americans might catch o
98.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Well probably your income will decrease slightly as your field gets automated. So you'll output twice the much for the same effort and make a bit less money.
99.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
The free fast-follow situation with open models seems to be a big "if" here. It's not particularly hard to set up OpenCode for your company and plug in one of the myriad inference providers running free models. All of these s
100.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Except that your ability to sell that lamp is conditioned on other people not giving away the same lamp for free. GLM 5.2 is free.. which leaves OpenAI with what? Harness layers that competitors do better? Seems like OpenAI needs to keep tr
101.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Why would demand for labor rise if productivity rises?
102.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Or, with current US policy, the top 10% will get 6% richer and you'll get 1% poorer. Sure, the pie can grow, but you won't (unless you are in the top 10%) get any of it.
103.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Perhaps. America is not good at collective action. But maybe that will change as standard-of-living begins to collapse.
104.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
I work for a company I know is bad for society. Capitalism is really good at getting people to work at cross-purpose to the common interest. It's one of the better forms of coercion that has been devised, because it floats the tantaliz
105.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SI.POV.GINI?locations=U...
106.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
The reason we don't have supersonic planes is that they're way too loud. The noise pollution isn't worth a couple rich people getting to their destination slightly faster. Just look at GINI index: https://data.worl
107.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Foreign competitors who are banned in this country. The current federal government is not interested in competition or customer protections. Existing interests will acquire-to-kill any competitors and will not be anti-trusted for it. This c
108.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
60% of all CS researchers in America are not American. 55% of all engineering researchers. When everyone goes home America loses the majority of it's research output, plus the extra Americans who choose to join them. I suspect a great
109.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
I don't think DEI was political until Trump made it a dog whistle for white nationalism? Insofar as Trump platformed white nationalists, I suppose it's political, but you are confusing the causality.
110.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Exactly. The US is a leader in technology pretty much exclusively because of immigration. As that reverses, we can expect the US to fall behind, and fall further behind, over time.
111.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
It's a bold move cotton. I doubt it'll pay off. Let's face it, the average FB engineer is no better than the average Polish engineer, and the Polish guy is 20x cheaper. If you wanted cost-effective labeling you'd send it
112.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Anthropic is making money from people who under-utilize their subscriptions, and presumably by sneaky throttling or not-sneaky throttling power users. Currently they are in an adoption race. Whether being first will actually let them "
113.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Capitalism is designed to promote greed. It's the central point of our society's current design.
114.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Completely agree. AI is here to stay, it's going to garner more and more use overtime. However, I'm skeptical that the investments being made right now are at of the right scale & at the right time. I completely agree that ove
115.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
I find myself rarely reaching for Opus nowadays, it's just too slow. I assume there are tricky use-cases where it's really useful though, just not super relevant for my day to day. I much prefer a faster, "weaker" model.
116.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
You might want to revisit your analysis under more standard accounting guidance.
117.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
I mean, it can be offset with money. - Kids take time - Yes, so does working. If you cutout the 90h my partner and I spend working, that's a lot of time to put into raising children. - Kids take effort - Yes, so does working. If I didn
118.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Visit Jakarta
119.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Depends on implementation. For example, a wealth tax that has a "cap" at some ludicrous amount of wealth, like $10M, would effect very few people and therefore be insignificant for the average worker. So 99% of people would contin
120.
by danny_codes 4mo ago
Except for outsourcing, of course. The labor pool isn't limited domestically for many kinds of work. And for tech specifically, the labor pool is highly mobile. So if another country becomes the best place to go, then the labor pool wi

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