csee

36 ms·

331.
by csee 5y ago
If the difference was statistically significant, sure. But it isn't, is it? ~50% of the time, the vaccinated group will have more deaths by chance, even if the vaccine is safe - assuming either little to no community spread during the
332.
by csee 5y ago
Death with Covid is the baseline requirement (although, ideally, we look at death by Covid, even though that's methodologically difficult) for the above data to have any meaning for the question of whether vaccines work. Suppose th
333.
by csee 5y ago
But they also would've had better mask compliance and vaccination rates, less obesity, and as a country they're more sparse.
334.
by csee 5y ago
How many of them had COVID when they died? Probably not many or none, right?
335.
by csee 5y ago
Shouldn't introducing controls make vaccines look even better, because the old are more likely to be vaccinated? Suppose 100% of old people and 0% of young people are vaccinated. Even if the vaccines are moderately effective, most of t
336.
by csee 5y ago
We are having these conversations. > * How much does the vaccination status reduce the chance of death/hospitalization? > * How does it differ among age groups? > * How does it change over time (not 2 doses vs. booster, but
337.
by csee 5y ago
> Agreed that it provides no data on future filters ahead of us This was my instinct, too, after reading both of your posts, but on reflection I think that it's unlikely to be no information. If we instead found 199 examples of ex
338.
by csee 5y ago
If it's at all possible that it's behind us (which I believe it is), then this finding would be bad, because it necessarily shifts probability density into our future. Probability density must sum to 1. So eliminating one large ch
339.
by csee 5y ago
> Before the great filter, there's the jump to multi-cellular life. Well, the filter may exist prior to the jump to multi-cellular life. Finding early life on Mars would necessarily be bad because we would now be able to mostly eli
340.
by csee 5y ago
It's correct. There is still a filter somewhere that explains the Fermi Paradox. So finding evidence of primordial life on Mars would just mean that the filter exists somewhere between that primordial life and somewhere ahead of us. Th
341.
by csee 5y ago
What? Depends how low the probability is and the magnitude of the worst case we're talking about.
342.
by csee 5y ago
This is more in the domain of philosophy than statistics. I wrote something in response, but then saw that the Wiki article on causality was far better than what I wrote, so have a look at that. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki
343.
by csee 5y ago
I agree with what you said, except the part about stealing from "wall street". Most of that money is stolen from regular people's investments and pension funds.
344.
by csee 5y ago
It is far more likely that they're insider trading, but the point is that the magnitude of the negative consequence is vastly different. If they insider trade and make $5 million, that's money stolen from other market participants
345.
by csee 5y ago
Their insider trading a very small problem compared to the problem of the perverted incentive to steer legislation in a direction that helps their portfolio.
346.
by csee 5y ago
Side effect would be that this would help them make even more money, due to lots of money following their trades after they have entered the position, and it would create pump and dump incentives.
347.
by csee 5y ago
I'm happy to call it naturally emergent as long as we also call Amazon and eBay's policies naturally emergent, but doing that would be rather vacuous.
348.
by csee 5y ago
I don't think it's naturally emergent. It's just another case of a centralized entity making some rules people need to follow or else they get banned. It's not too dissimilar from what would happen on eBay if someone com
349.
by csee 5y ago
Plants probably can't suffer. Pigs probably can.
350.
by csee 5y ago
Smarter isn't that morally relevant. Their capacity to suffer is. Maybe smart is a proxy for that, but I highly doubt it's a good one, given that our prefrontal cortex was a modular attachment to a system capable of suffering whic
351.
by csee 5y ago
Isn't this normal? We didn't evolve to feel much compassion in the abstract for people outside of our group, especially not if there aren't visual or auditory cues that they're suffering.
352.
by csee 5y ago
I hope so too, but let's start with the highest impact interventions like stopping the gassing of pigs with CO2 which causes immense pain at an extremely large scale. It's upsetting in an absolute sense that we experiment on pigs
353.
by csee 5y ago
I disagree with this language of "collective" sacrifice. A group can't sacrifice or suffer. Only individuals can sacrifice and suffer. Lockdowns are a sacrifice paid strictly by individuals.
354.
by csee 5y ago
They argue against regulations because: - Regulations are often used as a tool of corruption and cronyism, e.g. regulation of housing construction entrenching landowner power. - Regulations can block legitimate progress, e.g. the private an
355.
by csee 5y ago
How much of this is just young women spending more time on social media during covid? If social media was the cause of rising young female suicide pre-covid, then that could be it.
356.
by csee 5y ago
That's true, but I don't see that as necessarily decisive. If 1 doctor and 1 engineer can achieve the bandwidth of 10 (more?) doctors on some specific scan, we're still talking about less intellectual capital and less trainin
357.
by csee 5y ago
I'm curious what this drug is trying to do. You can see COVID brain damage on an FMRI, not sure how a drug is supposed to reverse that.
358.
by csee 5y ago
Part of the degradation was when they got rid of URLs. I had a really good bullshit detector function in my head. The URL would go into it, and an intuition would pop out that it was a bullshit link. Now I can't do that.
359.
by csee 5y ago
Countries with a GDP per capita of $5,000-$10,000 typically do have good medical care in private, but most of the population is excluded because of cost. If we give the doctors ML tools to increase bandwidth, then that should help the situa
360.
by csee 5y ago
I speculate (and hope) that ML diagnostics will help give medical care access to really poor people in really poor countries. There's not enough cheap doctors to help all of them, and if ML can speed things up and reduce marginal costs

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