counters

19 ms·

211.
by counters 4y ago
This has been rebutted ad nauseam. A fun read can be found on Eli Rabett's blog [1]; a more technical - and quite thorough - debunking can be found in pre-print form from Arthur Smith on arXiv [2]. [1]: http://rabett.blogspo
212.
by counters 4y ago
> Due to sensitive dependence on initial conditons. Even using measurements at meter resolution will cause the accuracy of a forecast to begin to break down after only a few days. That's an extremely simplistic take on things. In re
213.
by counters 4y ago
It's a deep learning based emulator of a full-complexity NWP system, but it is far from a production-ready or operational technique.
214.
by counters 4y ago
Yes, these are fully 3D simulations. The vertical resolution is slightly harder to describe because models like these typically use more complicated vertical coordinates than just "meters above ground". E.g. a technical article on
215.
by counters 4y ago
Why do you think that we need "femtometer resolution" for "very precise" 100 day weather forecasting? What even is "very precise" 100 day weather forecasting? I think it's very amusing to do the math on ho
216.
by counters 4y ago
Which is *exactly* why ultra-high resolution global weather simulation has dubious prospects for improving forecasts. When you're at spatial scales where you need to parameterize convection, there's an inherent "smoothness&qu
217.
by counters 4y ago
They're complete different classes of models. The modeling system in the linked article is a high-fidelity numerical simulation of the coupled Earth system. It's a giant PDE solver for Navier-Stokes applied to the Earth's atm
218.
by counters 4y ago
It's far too expensive with dubious impacts on forecast quality. Adaptive mesh approaches are far more suitable for high res global weather modeling... Why simulate the area under boring, dynamically unimportant areas?
219.
by counters 4y ago
> It aims to increase the albedo of Earth by creating more clouds over the oceans e.g. by spraying seawater. Sort of; what we're usually doing, in general, is increase the aerosol burden which in turn increases the total number of n
220.
by counters 4y ago
> Said understanding of the climate and ability can be proven by let's say consistently successful weather forecasts for 14 days in advance. Then we can talk. Weather prediction and understanding the impacts of SAI are two very comp
221.
by counters 4y ago
> Could we change that culture? In short? No. You probably can't. I hate being so blunt because I love the ideas you're proposing and have advocate for many similar things when I was still pursuing an academic career and now fr
222.
by counters 4y ago
> but does the collection methods work the same? Yes, more or less, they're the same. It's simple enough to restrict measurements to just surface observations made with a thermometer of some sort if you want a wholly apples-to-
223.
by counters 4y ago
The single, best general audience easy read on the basics of why we know the planet is warming due to human greenhouse gas emissions is Kerry Emanuel's ["What we know about climate change"]( https://www.amazon.com&#
224.
by counters 4y ago
> Most cities grow and develop over time and the parts of cities with more buildings and especially with more cement will radiate more heat. If an observation station was built somewhere less developed then city growth might artificially
225.
by counters 4y ago
Even more complicated and less obvious than some of the other sorts of Earth observations that the author talks about. I could write about this all day, but I'll start with the obvious: you're competing against a forecast that may
226.
by counters 5y ago
This is exactly right. I've seen it time and time again: Team has a black box ML/AI solution to a "problem." Team wants to eke out better P/R or deal with some complex edge cases. But team's problem is fundamen
227.
by counters 5y ago
Unambiguously, yes. If possible, release it using some sort of open source license, and grab a DOI for the initial and any subsequent release of the code - you can use Zeonodo or some other tool for this. I left the academic world a few yea
228.
by counters 5y ago
It might well be on the hyperbolic side, but I'm not sure your counter-example is really apples-to-apples. It isn't totally reasonable to compare the current pandemic to communicable disease outbreaks pre-globalization; in the 130
229.
by counters 5y ago
Eh, I'd suggest your case may be an anomaly, at least in the VC/unicorn world. Products are "fluffy." Your idea for a solution or useful tool may or may not take off, for a thousand different reasons. If you're marr
230.
by counters 5y ago
IMHO an important point here is that in much of the story as you've described it, there are incredibly valuable skills that just need to be re-dressed. As an academician who was lured to industry by an interesting startup and has worke
231.
by counters 5y ago
It is absolutely not - the car could very easily be rolled by a wind gust, and the cabin crushed with you in it. It's counter-intuitive but you'd probably be safer lying flat on the exposed ground, with as low a profile as possibl
232.
by counters 5y ago
No, the vast majority of chasers do not have such modifications to their vehicles, and with the exception of custom-built rigs like Reed Timmer's, these would do nothing to prevent harm during a tornado encounter. The point is that the
233.
by counters 5y ago
Just throwing it out there, but in the past 10 years there has been a trend in some parts of the country (Oklahoma, Dixie Alley, etc) to shut down events and hold students from school when significant severe weather outbreaks are expected,
234.
by counters 5y ago
I sincerely hope you are never put in a situation where you have to consider evacuating versus sheltering in place and potentially taking a direct hit by a tornado, but PLEASE do not take your chances in a car. Footage from storm chasers
235.
by counters 5y ago
A lot of the commentary here focuses on comparison with tabular/dataframe based analyses, but one of the killer use cases for Dask is more generalized out-of-core array computing. It greatly simplifies many of the forms of dimensional
236.
by counters 5y ago
Manabe contributed many pivotal works to the broad domain of planetary and atmospheric physics in the 1960's. The word "model" in reference to his work is substantially more than just computer simulations; really, it's r
237.
by counters 5y ago
Actually, predicting the progress of frontal rainfall is by far the easiest nowcasting problem. The squall lines that develop along cold fronts more-or-less move in a straight line at a constant speed. They're easy to isolate and track
238.
by counters 5y ago
A quibble with wind direction and humidity. Really, what's needed is to address the kinematic/thermodynamic parameters more generally that might support (a) maintenance of the existing convection and (b) the propagation of new con
239.
by counters 5y ago
Sort-of; it's really the TAMDAR [1] system taking measurements of humidity and temperature that are readily assimilated into the global forecast models run by all of the major weather forecast centers (NOAA, UKMO, ECMWF, etc). These ob
240.
by counters 5y ago
Because it means that the technique may have little to no utility for virtually any other weather forecasting application.

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