convexly

5 ms·

61.
by convexly 6mo ago
That’s fair, but the likelihood you’ll have a better time monetizing something you love is much higher, both in willingness and ability imo.
62.
by convexly 7mo ago
Addicted might be the wrong word but I definitely notice that I skip thinking about some of the steps I used to intentionally focus on.
63.
by convexly 7mo ago
Consider asking yourself what is something you want to exist, not what someone else wants/needs you to create. Completely different energy when you're solving your own problem.
64.
by convexly 7mo ago
Yeah, decision tracking tool. Helps people log predictions with probability estimates and see if their judgment is actually getting better over time. Not a single LLM in the core product. The math is all classical stats.
65.
by convexly 7mo ago
People stop caring whether something is good or not when there's so much of everything now. Why spend time evaluating when you can just move on to the next thing? That's not really an AI problem, but AI has definitely made it wors
66.
by convexly 7mo ago
Feels like the number is more about FOMO than fundamentals at this point.
67.
by convexly 7mo ago
Apparently not enough to justify the subscription :\
68.
by convexly 7mo ago
If your tool is only for entertainment then stop putting it in every product I use for work...
69.
by convexly 7mo ago
So the published narrative survived this long without anyone checking the tapes? Suspect.
70.
by convexly 7mo ago
There's a bunch of research showing that more/better information doesn't reliably improve judgement, but better feedback on your existing predictions does. Makes me think of Soros and his whole thing about reflexivity.
71.
by convexly 7mo ago
Most people already have this problem with their own thinking though. You make a big call at work, it plays out over 6 months, and by the time you know whether or not it was right you've already rewritten why you made it. That feedback
72.
by convexly 7mo ago
This problem existed for years, so at some point decided it wasn't worth fixing and that decision just stuck. I wonder how many companies have multiple of these types of problems that they aren't addressing.
73.
by convexly 7mo ago
I started writing down any of the technical decisions I needed to make before implementing them, usually just a sentence or two on what I'm choosing and why. I I looked back after 6 months and the pattern was embarrassing. I spent days
74.
by convexly 7mo ago
My issue with AGI benchmarks is you can never tell if you're measuring actual capability or just how much the training data overlapped with the test.
75.
by convexly 7mo ago
I've started just running git diff --stat first and reading the most-changed files in full instead of only looking at diff hunks. The surrounding context matters way more than the change itself and GitHub actively hides it.
76.
by convexly 7mo ago
This is just base rate neglect though. Something like 98% of all GitHub repos have <2 stars regardless of how they were made. If 90% of Claude repos have <2 stars that actually means they're outperforming the baseline...