cmiles8

8 ms·

151.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
Yes… the “trust me bro” vibe doesn’t play well with East Coast money
152.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
This is the most misquoted bit in that whole fiasco. He apparently had to sell every liquid thing in the portfolio. What’s left is allegedly just some highly illiquid paper assets that they’ve also been trying to unload. The present value o
153.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
1) Doesn’t make him wrong, and his thesis is looking more and more correct every day 2) The bullish AI side is full of grifters and folks that were block-chain and NFT “experts” before they became AI “experts.” 99% of the folks in AI know a
154.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
Well with OpenAI saying strongly the opposite now they can’t both be right. Someone is lying through their teeth here.
155.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
Small open weight local models are the future. While hosted mega models make headlines for doing cool stuff, the vast majority of applications for AI simply don't need all that power, and thus cost. That’s a big part of why businesses
156.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
Amazon is setting itself up to get bruised a bit, but it has a sufficiently diverse business and cash flow from non AI things that it will be fine. Pure play companies, startups, and investors are looking a lot less safe. For example there
157.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
It completely unclear where this 1.65T is going to come from to pay the bill. Revenue from people buying AI doesn’t even come close to covering it, even with crazy aggressive assumptions about the cashflow that could be generated from that.
158.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
SpaceX has put a ton of excess capacity on the market. Meta tanked chip stocks by saying it was considering the same. Worries about compute overcapacity, via folks saying they want to offload capacity, is literally the thing that nuked the
159.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
Are you saying people haven’t been throwing unneeded GPU capacity on the market? That is happening. Frankly it’s the opposite scenario (that’s there’s all this demand) which is struggling for any hard evidence.
160.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
The “Let it burn” attitude doesn’t mean people think they are immune. Yes the overall market will take a hit but, like a forest fire we need a healthy burn to just wipe out the weaker players so the older more mature trees can get on with i
161.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
Outside a relatively small world of circular investment and FOMO feeding FOMO the general consensus seems to be “let it burn.” It appears very unlikely we will ever see an IPO of OpenAI. Anthropic appears less doomed, but still iffy at best
162.
by cmiles8 2mo ago
It is. However remember that when the bubble pops it all works in the reverse direction too. Suddenly you have to mark down investment losses, missed revenue, and written off commitments. Companies can go from looking really good to a compl
163.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
If users start questioning the ROI of your AI product just hide the “I” from them. Problem solved.
164.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
Operate under an amateur radio license (which overlaps with the WiFi bands) and you could run up to 1,500 watts. Couldn’t be used much for an actual network but if it was just an experiment to prove art if the possible with proper station I
165.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
He had to liquidate everything that’s liquid and is left, seemingly, with some iffy-looking things that have paper returns but are broadly illiquid. Thats a disaster for a fund no matter how you slice it.
166.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
Wall Street eats these types for breakfast and then moves onto another meal for lunch. Once more sophisticated players smelled blood in the water they just had a field day here. There are many more setups out there like this and there’s a w
167.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
Stay market diversified and you will be fine in the long run. The AI bubble popping will be painful for all in the short term but a blip on the radar in the long term. These hedge funds get wound up in complicated, leveraged, illiquid layer
168.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
"Smart men go broke three ways - liquor, ladies and leverage."
169.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
You’re missing the core story which is that they don’t have a returns crisis they have a liquidity crisis. Finds don’t blow up because they have bad returns. Funds implode because they have no cash to cover their calls and other needs for c
170.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
An inexperienced portfolio manager that’s never seen a down tech market in his life has created a massively leveraged position on frothy assets in a bubble and the bubble is looking ill. What could possibly go wrong. Many of these AI plays
171.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
Honestly part of the challenge here is that they’re not really doing anything truly groundbreaking that everyone else doesn’t figure out on their own weeks later. That’s not an environment that fits the traditional “publish” mindset and is
172.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
An inexperienced portfolio manager that’s never seen a down tech market in his life has created a massively leveraged position on frothy assets in a bubble and the bubble is looking ill. What could possibly go wrong.
173.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
The deeper question though is why is someone running a model that’s supposedly so dangerous in an environment that can even get access to the internet. That just appears reckless. There are ways to test supposedly dangerous things. What was
174.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
Correct. Basic security practices would have stopped most of this. Thus what is most insightful here is less that the attack was sophisticated but more that Hugging Face was running a setup that, by standards that are the norm elsewhere, wo
175.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
It’s an interesting post mortem and situation but it seems to say more about the weakness of the Hugging Face architecture than it does about the strength of the models. This mostly reads like script kiddie style hacking, not some state act
176.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
Congrats. Not entirely clear on the vision but most things he touches are great so am sure whatever they come out with will be good stuff.
177.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
The same thing happened with the oil sands boom 15 years ago. Industrial sites were losing skilled trades people left and right as they went up north to make 2-3x their salary. Then that bubble popped and these folks were tossed onto the st
178.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
Not financial advice, but: Honestly it’s pretty hard and I wouldn’t recommend it. Shorting stocks and getting into bonds / default swaps but the system is broadly rigged against small players doing well here. Ie in the Big Short see ev
179.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
It’s not a question of if but when at this point. To parallel to The Big Short this is the point in the movie where folks realize it’s mathematically impossible for things to not implode and so players are quietly positioning themselves for
180.
by cmiles8 3mo ago
That party is over. They’re all on the clock now to show they can make money or the plug will be pulled.

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