cardmagic

7 ms·

31.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Kelly criterion never claimed to prevent bankruptcy. It only tells you how to bet to achieve the maximum theoretical return possible given a set of odds and payouts. I say theoretical because unless you're in a casino, you don't k
32.
by cardmagic 9y ago
> That's not true. If you bet 99% of your money each time then there's still no probability that you go bankrupt (it's literally impossible to go bankrupt unless you bet all your money), and you make money much faster. The
33.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Nice ad hominem attempt, but even though I accidentally switched a minus for a plus, the point the math teaches is the same: risk of ruin accumulates with the number of bets. For more information check "Risk of Ruin" https:/
34.
by cardmagic 9y ago
You are wrong twice there... sane people make that bet every day by smoking (limited upside gain, risk of ruin loss) and by taking many prescription medicines that have side effects including death. Using a cell phone is taking that bet. Yo
35.
by cardmagic 9y ago
First of all, some people do play games like that. But put that aside for a moment because it’s immaterial. Look at what Taleb is essentially saying: if there is a chance you will be ruined, and you play long enough, you will eventually be
36.
by cardmagic 9y ago
>> Actually, what I’m saying is even stronger. I am saying that even if you have the edge, in the presence of the probability of ruin, you will be ruined. Even if you had the edge … If you play long enough. > He wouldn't pass
37.
by cardmagic 9y ago
It’s still legal to drive horse and buggies on roads, even though it is 10x more dangerous for the people driving them. Why haven’t they forced us into stopping horse and buggies? Should someone have forced cars to not be invented because t
38.
by cardmagic 9y ago
So you want to limit my freedom of owning a car without a steering wheel so that you can protect your freedom of owning one with a steering wheel? That doesn’t make much sense to me. Just because one company makes a better mouse trap doesn’
39.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Then say what you mean. Instead of trying to limit my freedom of owning a self-driving car, make it clear you are arguing for the right of people to drive what they want to and we’ll be on the same page.
40.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Most people in the self-driving cars world are not talking about "taking away" other use cases for wheeled vehicles. It's a strawman.
41.
by cardmagic 9y ago
If I tried it, I wouldn't try it with the same car I drive to work with every day. I'd use a car built to drive over riverbeds. Most people aren't saying that self-driving cars should take over every kind of vehicle with whee
42.
by cardmagic 9y ago
How do self-driving cars restrict your freedom? You can still tell it where you want to go at any time and it will take you. I'm very confused what freedom I'm losing? Is it to drive over a riverbed if I want to? Never done that.
43.
by cardmagic 9y ago
It’s similar to 1999 dotcom run up, there will be a crash to remove all the bad actors (like the former pets.com), but it won’t kill cryptocoins just like the dotcom crash didn’t kill ecommerce.
44.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Leverage
45.
How to Build a Self-Conscious Machine(wired.com)
8 points by cardmagic 9y ago|0 comments
46.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Anyone else getting tired of sites that are illegible on mobile?
47.
by cardmagic 9y ago
You ask that as if the burden of proof is on me. I’m not charging anyone for this hogwash, the burden of proof is on you. Other people selling snake oil too doesn’t make it any more effective. I can walk into any grocery store in the USA an
48.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Sure... and it's also so advanced that even double-blind researchers can't reproduce it. I'm sorry that asking for rigorous science sounds like being righteous to you. I am not taking anybody's hard earned money with emp
49.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Technically placebos still work even when you know they are placebos.[1] [1] http://www.telegraph.co.uk/science/2017/09/26/placebo-effect...
50.
by cardmagic 9y ago
No. Ignorant, rude, and swindling people out of their hard earned money with false promises makes a dangerous proposition. Frankly I don’t know how you sleep at night. Just because there’s a placebo effect doesn’t make it effective. Many pr
51.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Hypnosis has been well researched to be effective. Subliminal messages have been well studied to be bogus.
52.
by cardmagic 9y ago
“It works, I swear” says the snake oil salesman.
53.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Subliminal messages have as shoddy a track record as homeopathy. At best this is a placebo effect.
54.
by cardmagic 9y ago
4 sigma event assumes normal distribution and its abundantly clear that stock market distributions are far from normal.
55.
by cardmagic 9y ago
This is a ridiculously tiny amount of time to judge performance.
56.
by cardmagic 9y ago
For all x -> y != For all y -> x For all certain brain stimulations then ghostly feeling != for all ghostly feeling then certain brain stimulation
57.
by cardmagic 9y ago
That's cool, I like that one, except the sun does that for me in my case. But if I needed to wake up earlier than the sun, I could see that being useful.
58.
by cardmagic 9y ago
My Kuna security cameras turn lights on at night and off at sun-up. My Nest already has presence detection and adjusts temps based on that. More importantly, I didn't buy a Kuna for lights on and off with the sun, nor a Nest for presen
59.
by cardmagic 9y ago
I have a Roomba and if I don't close my bathroom door at night, it always gets stuck in the bathroom when it goes off in the morning. So every night, I make sure the bathroom door is closed before I go to bed. I would not pay anything
60.
by cardmagic 9y ago
Is anyone else here completely confused at how much hype there is around automated light management systems? I don’t get it. Is it really that hard to turn on and off lights manually that people really need all this stuff? What am I not get

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