bo1024

75 ms·

901.
by bo1024 7y ago
There’s a difference between incorrect and incomplete. Facts, like how many people in a trial of 23 recovered, can be shared and useful early on even though they’re incomplete. That’s different from attempting to draw a strong conclusion ab
902.
by bo1024 7y ago
Normally, this is the role of peer review and top publishing venues. Those places should be putting a big push to rigorously review as many articles as and as fast as possible now.
903.
by bo1024 7y ago
Could this just be a political power play to pressure the US gov not to pass any mortgage forbearance, forgiveness, or similar measures?
904.
by bo1024 7y ago
Ha. But this approach seems really problematic since it's based on the assumption that algorithms are good at predicting the counterfactual, while the reality is that the stock market is by nature extremely unpredictable. Example 1: Yo
905.
by bo1024 7y ago
The idea of the 401k is such an amazing hustle for the wealthy. * Middle-class Americans consistently pump money into the stock market generically (not information trading), raising the value of all your stocks over time. * Now you have a g
906.
by bo1024 7y ago
Whereas the car signal is time set aside to check one's texts and notifications.
907.
by bo1024 7y ago
I got completely sucked into it (the philosophy and "story" being a big part of that). It was fun to try and optimize, fun to follow events, and cathartic to reach the end. Sometimes I would take breaks at points while income buil
908.
by bo1024 7y ago
Note that deaths lag positive cases by some time (2 weeks maybe?).
909.
by bo1024 7y ago
These are good points (though broad strokes). Mostly I'm just pointing out subtleties or challenges with this approach. One difference is if a business re-opens and expects people to come in to work, the US probably needs legal protect
910.
by bo1024 7y ago
For anyone who exercises daily, there's a really big difference!
911.
by bo1024 7y ago
But the tests aren't perfect, so how to get actionable data from them isn't clear. We saw this with the flawed west coast studies. If a test has false positive or false negative rates even as high as 1%, and we run hundreds of tho
912.
by bo1024 7y ago
This and the parent comment seem like pretty strong arguments. If the main differentiator is supposed to be whom banks decide to lend to, this doesn't seem to be working. They are extremely risk-averse about innovating lending or using
913.
by bo1024 7y ago
Yes! Especially when you have multiple data centers participating in different locations. It might be cloudy in one place but not another, so jobs get re-routed accordingly.
914.
by bo1024 7y ago
Finished it - there is uneven editing in the second half: some passages reappear in multiple places, some thoughts are unfinished. Still found it well worth the read.
915.
by bo1024 7y ago
I don't see a conflict - what you're describing is very consistent with the paper. No problem-solving until algebra starts, then focusing on using algebra to solve 'word problems'.
916.
by bo1024 7y ago
Wow, this is a great read! I'm on page 18 so far. It's been discussing how "word problems" are key to developing critical thinking skills, and how far behind the US seems to be in them. One point made: the idea that word
917.
by bo1024 7y ago
The article starts by focusing on hoarders, but this is talking past economists focusing on actual producers. I'd strongly agree that it's economically harmful for people to collect rents without providing any new value, by accide
918.
by bo1024 7y ago
I assumed it was because of the hair.
919.
by bo1024 7y ago
This sounds reasonable. Right now people need money mostly for rent and mortgages. So the solution is to pay people money so they can afford rent, I.e. loop money right back up to the banks and capital holders.
920.
by bo1024 7y ago
Yes, exactly. For example, I would think there would be immense value right now in sampling totally random subsets of the population and testing whether they've had COVID-19 in the past. This is the kind of information that could radic
921.
by bo1024 7y ago
> No. A good Bayesian should be able to come to decisions like, "I am 70% confident that Osama bin Laden is in that compound." That's not a decision though. That's an assessment, what I would put in the same category
922.
by bo1024 7y ago
There is some really interesting interplay here between forecasting and decisionmaking. (Taleb would have a lot to say here, along the lines of "forecasters are poor.") Maybe it makes sense that forecasts should be measured, but d
923.
by bo1024 7y ago
Good idea for this! But trickier for phone calling into a conversation. They could also just add 3 digits and a slight delay in their connection API, making it much harder to brute force, albeit only by a constant factor.
924.
by bo1024 7y ago
He has access to top medical experts. I saw a talk from him once where he described access to experts to explain things to him as one of the biggest perks of his position. I'm also a bit skeptical that Americans elected officials makin
925.
by bo1024 7y ago
I was assuming the station already paid for the gas...I think it depends on whether that's true or not.
926.
by bo1024 7y ago
Ok great.
927.
by bo1024 7y ago
That doesn't actually follow. If the station across the street is selling at a loss, you can either keep prices high and make zero revenue, or sell at a loss and make some revenue. Of course you'll go out of business after a while
928.
by bo1024 7y ago
A port is mentioned in this line, you may want to redact it. Where I put X's below, is a port number. > So, I tried ssh ip-address -pXXXXXXXXX
929.
by bo1024 7y ago
The Little Prince. It’s beautiful and helps me re evaluate / question priorities. Vonnegut impacted me to be a bit more fatalistic (“among the things he could not change were the past, present, and future”) and nihilistic in a positive
930.
by bo1024 7y ago
> unlikely that stocks will make a quick return to their prior levels unless governments engage in massive asset inflation. I agree with you, and I'm especially concerned about this "unless". Markets are supposed to reward

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