ben_w

49 ms·

961.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Great for us here in Europe, but an even bigger reason for Apple to be upset about it.
962.
by ben_w 4mo ago
That much has always been obvious, however (1) note final paragraph, and (2) the stock price estimates (both SpaceX and Tesla) are also based on "green lights to Malibu" degrees of optimism.
963.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Same, and these fliers remind me of my early school years where the RISC OS machines' word processor was used to put every font into the letters for parents. (My recollection as that clipart started to fade away around the same time br
964.
by ben_w 4mo ago
I expect via court order or government intervention. How many of the HODLers will be SpaceX believers, vs. Musk believers? Musk's already only narrowly avoided being banned from running publicly traded companies from the $420 tweet yea
965.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Indeed; though one thing I've found researching this is that the exact numbers are all over the place, so for some it's "let's make a single giant DC" and others are "let's make one million small ones&quot
966.
by ben_w 4mo ago
> Isn't that drastically underselling potentially one of the harder parts of this whole endeavor? Everything in space is hard; but these are Alphabet researchers not NASA researchers, and honestly even the NASA papers I've been
967.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Starship would be really good even if they can't make it reusable, but still hit the early-user price tags and capacity to LEO they're talking about for expendable-mode launches, even if they then stop improving. But unless there&
968.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Yeah, indeed, I was assuming in constant today-dollars. :)
969.
by ben_w 4mo ago
> The material wealth of the Earth is only a small, small fraction of the accessible material in the inner solar system, let alone the universe. And you think you can access that in 30 years? That's the problem here. Market valuatio
970.
by ben_w 4mo ago
No, the best selling car in the world is the Toyota RAV4: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4 The best selling EV brand in the world is BYD: https://cleantechnica.com/wp-content/uploads&#
971.
by ben_w 4mo ago
> They are moving faster than anyone in aerospace has ever moved before, but SpaceX is still accelerating faster than that. By the time they catch up, the game will have again changed. That was a believable pitch up to around 2020 or so.
972.
by ben_w 4mo ago
> And if you think, as Morgan Stanley seems to, that the only money to be made in space is selling launch of earth orbiting satellites, you’re going to miss out on the boom that is going to make the first quadrillionaire. I was with you
973.
by ben_w 4mo ago
> Am I hallucinating? Nah, those risks are mostly correct (the only exception is the water, though even here this danger is only over-stated in aggregate, hydrology is complicated and local depletion can happen). Plus a whole bunch more
974.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Huge negative margins, according to the article: "Starting with the reusable rockets, MS expects SpaceX to eat itself. Launch costs will collapse by more than 99 per cent versus their historical average within 10 years, it says.
975.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Morgan Stanley list both.
976.
by ben_w 4mo ago
My draft blog post about all the things that are up with space data centres keeps getting bigger and bigger. "The other half of the MS model is data centres. “Orbital compute deployments” start in 2028, reach cost parity with their
977.
by ben_w 4mo ago
I have B1 German, finally managing an official certification at the start of this year despite living here since the end of summer of 2018. As societies require accommodations for idiots, I found it so easy to get by with the German I did k
978.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Oh, it's a magnetorquer. How mundane. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magnetorquer > In the future, Zenno Astronautics plans to launch larger systems that could enable spacecraft to dock in space or conduct close
979.
by ben_w 4mo ago
> If you don't want those in your life then just don't consume them. That works fine when the thing is neither addictive nor required for interaction with certain people you need to interact with. I can avoid Meta specifically,
980.
by ben_w 4mo ago
> Apple sure won’t care Europe collectively is about 26.7% of their 2025 revenue, according to SEC filings, so I bet they'd care. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/320193/0000320193250...
981.
by ben_w 4mo ago
While I agree with your general gist and definitely your final paragraph, > There are plenty of people with old android phones with no free disk space using ancient browsers. How many people have 10 year old phones? I've got an 8 ye
982.
by ben_w 4mo ago
That's fair, but the point wasn't to provide the best possible literature, just something good enough to show it's unobjectionable to speak of things as if they have a mind even when the things are obviously mindless to anyon
983.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Sure, but until then, proportional to each of [population, education/educated workers, capital, instantaneous industrial base, energy supply]. Asia's diverse, but I'd say they seem to be doing pretty well with rapid improveme
984.
by ben_w 4mo ago
We first became powerful because we did the industrial revolution before anyone else, and used more of that capacity to fight the world (and win) than to fight each other. When we fought each other, after the industrial revolution, that was
985.
by ben_w 4mo ago
I thought Russia was about 2x the Netherlands by nominal, and 5x by PPP? More relevantly, they were one of the world's petrol stations, and now they're not.
986.
by ben_w 4mo ago
All these decades later, I still enjoy Marathon 2.
987.
by ben_w 4mo ago
That's kind of the point. The software only had to be good enough to support the business. It doesn't have to win a Turing Award, and probably wouldn't help the business if it did.
988.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Reads like (and with that weird contrast and non-trivial background, visually styled like) an LLM whose goal is to campaign against LLMs. (Or am I now like the Dwarfs in The Last Battle , seeing all things as mere simulacra?)
989.
by ben_w 4mo ago
Could well be, but my case was "illustrate this orbit" rather than copying Simon Willson. After a few rounds, I gave up on asking the LLM and just drew my SVG in BBEdit.
990.
by ben_w 4mo ago
> Survivorship bias The statistical problem is small sample size, not survivorship bias, as I got to see things before failure. These two examples are merely illustrative of things I've seen.

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