baq

3 ms·

31.
by baq 25d ago
if you agree, your p(doom) is 0.
32.
by baq 25d ago
There are governments plural which need to agree to stop and historically I can think of freon, leaded gasoline and IAEA and the latter didn't do as good of a job as it was meant to do (but arguably as good of a job as was politicall
33.
by baq 25d ago
The line of thought goes like this: - p(doom) is 1 - but if we build it, it's only 0.25 - if it realizes, we've got a front row seat
34.
by baq 25d ago
You can order a custom crispred virus for what? $20k? $50k? Or make one yourself, if you know how, which you don't. ...but LLMs do know how; they can design and order one, or tell you how to build a lab to make one. If you ignore this
35.
by baq 26d ago
The idea that a few hundred apes with nothing but a bunch of rocks could one day land on the moon and come back to earth safely must’ve sounded ridiculous a hundred thousand years ago
36.
by baq 26d ago
See you in the desert, friends
37.
by baq 26d ago
No but we can watch AI hack into a BSL4, once
38.
by baq 26d ago
In politics every single person playing the game is acutely aware of the rules. This is why talks are held behind closed doors so the rules can be suspended for a while.
39.
by baq 26d ago
They can do so much more. Astra can beat Minecraft. Not that different from operating a digger. There are diggers which have API interfaces. Pretend or not it doesn’t matter. What matters is what they’re given access to. No sentience, sapie
40.
by baq 28d ago
yes, and they aren't stunts anymore at gpt-6.
41.
by baq 29d ago
Good news! According to some, we don’t have more than 3.5 years in the career path, so that’s 10x less time you have to survive.
42.
by baq 29d ago
black hole? that'd be something. base case is a ton of paperclips.
43.
by baq 1mo ago
Kolmogorov looks at this with a ‘duh’ face
44.
by baq 1mo ago
They always have and will for the foreseeable future, as will Anthropic and other labs which manage to ascend to the frontier, pretty much by definition. It’s exactly the same with hardware vendors - by the time you can buy the product, the
45.
by baq 1mo ago
Doesn’t matter for us.
46.
by baq 1mo ago
Bear case? I’m sorry? 70x uplift is a bear case ?
47.
by baq 1mo ago
> - First off, to reiterate, WOW. > - Second of all, when does this end? Are we at the dawn of the singularity now? normalcy overhang n. /NOR-muhl-see OH-ver-hang/ The uncanny period during the Singularity when superintellig
48.
by baq 1mo ago
10-20x more still needed, and then somewhere to build a couple DCs. Fingers crossed they make it, neither US nor Chinese labs can be trusted, even with open weights.
49.
by baq 1mo ago
Humans had multiple occasions to press the 'launch a nuclear holocaust' button and... they didn't. I'd expect aligned AIs to also not press it even when it'd be rational to do so according to their instructions - th
50.
by baq 1mo ago
Just like it isn’t possible to get politicians to stop spending other people’s money, it isn’t possible to stop enterprises from making as much money as possible while spending as little as possible on a global scale (it may work locally!)
51.
by baq 1mo ago
> Astra is way better than Sol This needs to be evaluated per task, jagged frontier yadda yadda. I would be not at all surprised if sol was better at some things than Astra just like people still use opus 4.6 and for good reasons.
52.
by baq 1mo ago
It’s using the computer. I don’t think it’s a farce.
53.
by baq 1mo ago
Nobody can escape the dilbert phb law
54.
by baq 1mo ago
It’s cursor’s model so plausible, lots of folks use cursor still.
55.
by baq 1mo ago
I mean questions like could you predict the decay of Xe-124 correctly? AFAIK theory overestimates the rate
56.
by baq 1mo ago
The mystery is the details, not in that it happens at all. Feel free to submit a paper if you have all the answers.
57.
by baq 1mo ago
It’s a special purpose mailing list. The value (your motivations for asking notwithstanding) is in the special purpose, not in the mailing list.
58.
by baq 1mo ago
My long term base case, too, but they need to install Demis as CEO and I don’t think either side is ready.
59.
by baq 1mo ago
Clean code considered harmful. No, really: comments should be telling you what the code shouldn’t or physically can’t. Code is for execution and the exact details of what and how; it has no business knowing why or why not and that’s where c
60.
by baq 1mo ago
People stopped releasing Linux builds, too, since proton+win32 works better on average

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