anm89

79 ms·

961.
Ask HN: What's Russia's Endgame in Ukraine?
24 points by anm89 5y ago|66 comments
962.
by anm89 5y ago
I don't know if I'm the only one, but I always felt like Watson was roleplaying being a relevant tech company. Something about the way they marketed it just seemed like it was a big PR campaign with no meat behind it. I always had
963.
by anm89 5y ago
Think about what happened to crypto and other inflation hedges in march 2020. They got ahnilated worse than equities in the initial risk off and then out performed ever since. I think that's where we are now. If there is a market sell
964.
by anm89 5y ago
Of course, it isn't. If a republican says they like ice cream, is ice cream republican? That's obviously not how this works and the people who want you to think otherwise have a narrative they are selling.
965.
by anm89 5y ago
> why would the US unwinding QE and raising interest rates do anything but good for the USD? On first order effects yes, but first order effects are not the whole story. If this severely blows up markets, it wouldn't matter that we
966.
by anm89 5y ago
Right, future earnings are discounted by interest rates meaning if you're a company whose earnings are heavily weighted towards the future, ie a growth stock (think startups who lose money but have huge valuations based on potential fu
967.
by anm89 5y ago
This is exactly what the parent is arguing.
968.
by anm89 5y ago
Yeah this is a great point that gets missed a lot.
969.
by anm89 5y ago
MMT DOES make sense, as long as you are careful to qualify who it's making sense for. If you are a congress person with a very short term time horizon MMT makes a whole bunch of sense. Incidentally, our country is run by congress peopl
970.
by anm89 5y ago
I don't think this is the risk. The one thing that is very much with in our control is the trade off between inflation and market "health" (price levels). At the end of the day, we can make any prices on the SP or QQQ nominal
971.
by anm89 5y ago
It's interesting to me why spying on citizens is like this foundational goal of all modern nation states. I get why a state might want to do this but its not clear to me why it seems to be the only stable path for modern democracies.
972.
by anm89 5y ago
I would slightly disagree. USD as measured by the DXY is as much if not more of a function of international demand for dollars (ie Eurodollar markets). There is massive structural demand built into dollars based on coupon payments in $ deno
973.
by anm89 5y ago
Sooner or later it's going to get so absurd that I think they will write legislation to change the whole system because the optics of that theatre will get bad. If we had to do another 5 trillion in fiscal spending for an upcoming down
974.
by anm89 5y ago
For the debtor or the creditor? For the creditor the right level is 0 or short. Maybe if you are close to retirement and you strongly value stability over growth it has a role. There is some nuance here for large complicated portfolios but
975.
by anm89 5y ago
I think he is quite aware of this distinction and definitely brings it up in various ways.
976.
by anm89 5y ago
It's also worth pointing out that austerity would probably fail miserably given the specifics of our situation. The time for Austerity was maybe circa 2004 or 2011 when debt to gdp was half of what it is now. We are WAY past that point
977.
by anm89 5y ago
What does he proposed to do? Should congress start setting stock prices? Otherwise you are going to have to accept that stock prices can fall based on business decisions. Also old.
978.
by anm89 5y ago
Is it just the use of "flaming pile" that you take issue with or the underlying content of the post? Can I call the channel terrible or something? I don't feel that this content is "bad" or "not good". A
979.
by anm89 5y ago
This channel was a flaming pile. It was some guy wildly speculating in hindsight and throwing the word "psychology" to argue that his SWAGs were some kind of scientific endeavor.
980.
by anm89 5y ago
I support this channel's right to exist but this channel is still pseudoscience garbage. Then again, a non trivial portion of what is going on in academic psychology is pseudoscientific garbage so maybe this is state of the art?
981.
by anm89 5y ago
a) > If value of a commodity is predicated on scarcity No economist would say the value of anything is based on scarcity. Scarcity is basically a code word for supply. The value of things is determined by the intersection of supply and d
982.
by anm89 5y ago
so change the bankruptcy laws. that doesn't require forgiving the loans.
983.
by anm89 5y ago
oh, yeah, makes sense now.
984.
by anm89 5y ago
How do you look at Miami, the most vulnerable city in America to climate Change maybe in a tie with Tucson, and decide it's somewhere you want to make a 50 year investment? Maybe they have done their research and I understand something
985.
by anm89 5y ago
I ended up finding g that a regular old accountant that would help me run my own payroll for my one person llc was a drastically better deal then getting locked into some recurring revenue scheme. obviously this could be different at differ
986.
by anm89 5y ago
Hard for me to understanding how this is only happening now. It feels like this one has been ripe for 5-10 years.
987.
by anm89 5y ago
Hopefully this will be permanent.
988.
by anm89 5y ago
The kind of roles that are good are the ones that you can be honest with. If you have to constantly lie about your situation, it probably is going to blow up sooner or later. So find somewhere that you can just tell that you're in Bali
989.
by anm89 5y ago
this type of discourse doesn't belong on HN. you should take it somewhere else.
990.
by anm89 5y ago
this really brightened my day. hope it works out

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