angelzen

9 ms·

31.
by angelzen 5y ago
The argument is that herd immunity for covid cannot be attained via vaccines. Not even 100% vaccination. The comparison with measles, another contagious airborne disease, is instructive. The threshold for herd immunity is estimated at 94%.
32.
by angelzen 5y ago
A paper, while not specifically addressing vaccination in immunocompromised patients, documents pretty clearly the phenomenon of runaway mutation chains in such patients. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/
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by angelzen 5y ago
The OA story is a great illustration why we should never put aside common decency. Break down indecent behavior dampening barriers at the risk of fickle mobs looking for the next target to shame. No one is safe. Even the most self-intereste
34.
by angelzen 5y ago
I see. If authorities claim that they are vaguely concerned about a risk you might pose to others, then they can arrest and confine you with no due process for an indeterminate time period.
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by angelzen 5y ago
Speed limit 20.
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by angelzen 5y ago
While Earth is technically a SPOF, it is also a very large place with a very long track record for successfully supporting complex life forms. We can even say that life forms as we know them are attractors (local minima) in the chemo-energe
37.
by angelzen 5y ago
I see. Perhaps you consider "forcing senior health officials to defer some planned deliveries" and "South Africa Asks J&J, Pfizer to Stop Sending Vaccines" are both accurately describing the same fact. I suppose we s
38.
by angelzen 5y ago
The fact under contention is very specific, not just general vaccine hesitancy. The article appears to fail to mention it, unless there is some other quote that can be shared beyond the paywall. More interestingly, here's an approximat
39.
by angelzen 5y ago
The very subtitle of the NYT article, which can be read without a subscription, apparently has changed and now reads: "With countries trying to close their doors to the new coronavirus variant, southern African officials note that the
40.
by angelzen 5y ago
Do you happen to have 2 months old predictions of the models you find non-trivial? My sense is that this is weather vs. climate prediction. They may be able to do a somewhat reasonable job a few days ahead, but beyond that it's all abo
41.
by angelzen 5y ago
Make that zero. To their credit, the authors of the Bangladesh mask study released the raw data. "The difference between the two groups was small: only 20 cases out of over 340,000 individuals over a span of 8 weeks." Drawing any
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by angelzen 5y ago
It's been obvious that covid is seasonal for a long time now. The winter season is here, the covid wave is here. No need for complex math models. BTW, funny how those models usually ignore seasonality, natural immunity or quarantine on
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by angelzen 5y ago
The null hypothesis is the natural state of humanity, without medical intervention.
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by angelzen 5y ago
The insistent downplaying of natural immunity reminds me of an old soviet scifi novel, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Air_Seller , if one can get past the on-the-nose soviet motives.
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by angelzen 5y ago
We don't know. They can change the mRNA code for the new spike protein, but they can't force the immune system to respond to the new code. For all we know, the immune system may mistakenly generate a response for the spike it was
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by angelzen 5y ago
In masks + covid context it feels like "unethical" is used as a thought terminating cliche. * The pandemic is affecting 8,000,000,000 people all around the world. A large size RCT enrolls X0,000 participants. For example, the Pfiz
47.
by angelzen 5y ago
> I was also surprised [...] to realize that our sanitary pass allow(ed) vaccinated people to attend mass events or restaurants or places where that pass is mandatory even if they have covid symptoms or are under quarantine. Unfortunatel
48.
by angelzen 5y ago
Delta has petered out in SA. This is perhaps the beginning of a new wave. Hopefully not. https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1463956690743742470
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by angelzen 5y ago
Common wisdom is that immunocompromised individuals, which are unable to battle off the virus and suffer the infection for long periods of time, are fertile grounds for variants evolution. "Rapid viral evolution has been described in i
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by angelzen 5y ago
# observed infections = # of infections * probability of testing * probability of authority trustworthiness. Alas, in the developing world test penetration is low and authorities are not particularly trustworthy.
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by angelzen 5y ago
From 1998 https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/0307945980841929... , page S50, Figure 4: BIVAL vv (late 70s) then RISPENS vv+ (early 90s). The text: "The three major pathotype shifts are: (1) from
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by angelzen 5y ago
That is a rather hopeful chart. Even the very virulent Delta, in a country 25% vaccinated, has receded to almost negligible levels after ~4 months of flaring up.
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by angelzen 5y ago
Similar cases have happened for decades. Perhaps the frequency has changed, but the phenomenon is rare enough that is hard to tell. Linked an article from 2012. https://www.cnn.com/2012/03/19/sport/health
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by angelzen 5y ago
The core argument is that Marek kills in 10 days or less, which is too soon for viral spread to happen. MDV vaccines keep chickens from dying, thus spread of hot variants can occur. Since covid doesn't kill that much, Marek phenomenon
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by angelzen 5y ago
Nov 24, 2021 "Health minister suggests fourth vaccine dose amid rising fears of fifth COVID wave" https://www.timesofisrael.com/health-minister-suggests-fourt...
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Zabardast – Full Movie(youtube.com)
2 points by angelzen 5y ago|0 comments
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by angelzen 5y ago
Vaccines definitely have a positive effect. However, at this point most of it has been already accounted for by vaccinating the elderly populations at risk. Most Western world has elderly vaccination rates over 90-95%, including supposedly
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by angelzen 5y ago
It is called a "covid wave". Cases go up, then go down. Some people, mostly with frail systems, will sadly falter, not dissimilar to how flu operates. It's pretty clear that we are going to have at least one of these waves ev
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by angelzen 5y ago
Article in arstechnica.com
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by angelzen 5y ago
CDC deleted the expression "to produce immunity to a specific disease" from the vaccine definition, but still defines: "Immunity: Protection from an infectious disease. If you are immune to a disease, you can be exposed to it

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