alexandercrohde

14 ms·

91.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
He said that for the UK apparently, here https://reason.com/2020/03/27/no-british-epidemiologist-neil...
92.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
I didn't realize that. Thanks. Author's character aside, the math still seems right to me. But I'm receptive to any published journal articles that explain how 350m people with a 1%~ fatality rate leads to less than 1m deaths
93.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Well, one way to do the math is say, a 6 month shutdown is losing half-a-year for * 300m people. So it costs 150million years of dating, going to the park, the beach, etc. So if the average lifespan is 75 years, a 6 month shutdown could be
94.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Virus is going to kill 1m in the US no matter what, even if every single person had a dedicated ICU [1]. People who can't emotionally accept that shouldn't partake in the discussion, because that's table-stakes. [1]. https:&
95.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
For context, it's estimated that BEST case scenario (flatten the curve entirely, everybody gets medical attention) that 1.1 million Americans still die[1]. This is assuming a quarantine for > 6 months [1]. Vaccines are a year off [1
96.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
This is a topic that seems to be in a perverse conflict of interests. A. Politicians have interests representing themselves as well as their country, and thus have given dishonest advice (masks don't help) with an ulterior motive (save
97.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Wow... I had no idea it was so low. Since you seem to be knowledgeable, if ventilating isn't a big-impact intervention, what's the point of flattening the curve? Is there some other intervention that hospital is doing that actuall
98.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
That's fine, so long as the article lets you know that up-front. Title it "Why we don't know yet whether you can get Corona a second time."
99.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
If you don't know then title the article "Why we don't know when Corona will end," so I can save my time. This article deliberately link-baits by purporting to answer a question and then giving a non-answer.
100.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
This is what happened with Spanish flu, but people lived with it, and each year it got less deadly, and it still persists to this day as Influenza A [1]. Personally I assume if it's more than a 6-month ordeal people would accept the lo
101.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Worthless article. Basically says 1-month to years. Well thanks Sherlock.
102.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
I'm downvoting this because it's a huge claim without adequate evidence. Feel free to cite some sources showing what % of harvests have been missed, etc, and I'll change my downvote.
103.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Your emotions are out of whack. Quotation marks are used for exact quotes, and nobody is saying anything remotely like that. I'm not going to continue to dive into the reasons I disagree with your argument. But that level of emotionali
104.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
That's a dumb bet. If the system crashes odds are pretty high they aren't getting paid.
105.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
It's amazing how many people copy-paste knowledge without doing the most basic logical checks on it. For example, nobody yet explained to me how flattening the curve is gonna make much difference when say NYC has 3,000 ventilators, and
106.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Right, if there's a resurgence I'm not participating. The cure would be worse than the disease. I encourage susceptible populations to quarantine themselves, rather than everybody quarantining. We must work, date, and life must go
107.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
I refuse to upvote on principle a one-liner quip on this site. But you're right, the insincere pretense of a question gives the air of a phony attempt at objectivity. Of course, that's entirely independent of whether the points ar
108.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Every time I see an HN analysis of the stock market, I hesitate to click it. It's only one-degree better than bitcoin spam memes on reddit. For example, the above paragraph is completely hollow until it gives some numbers. What % of th
109.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Men's average sperm-count levels go down about 3% a year, and have been consistently for over 30 years. No cause is known, but pollutants are the best hypothesis. I'd love to know if we see any sort of "rebound" in the q
110.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Great question, and I'm glad I'm not the only one wondering this. It seems hard to believe that in a situation where almost every single country has it that somehow China kept it confined to one province... Obviously they censor t
111.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Unfortunate that a bad investigator made a professor's life difficult. I liken it to a bad boss who can make one ultimately lose one's job for entirely unclear reasons. Without any evidence that this is a systemic problem, I wonde
112.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
I guess the operative detail is whether shelter-in-place will get us to a "23%" total infection rate vs 70%. I wonder if that's accurate. I also wonder if this is recurring in the fall, and every year, and whether physical di
113.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
How does this differ from a pigeonhole sort?
114.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Meh, it's a hundred times better to let something be made in the next weeks out there that has 90% effectiveness than to disallow anything from being made because the testing process is too slow. Maybe you're a bit oblivious to th
115.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
I'm sorry but what does this title even mean? Define "beat Covid-19." Not to be a hardass, but I'd prefer real information not babyfood. Something akin to "Currently predicted US deaths without social distancing: X.
116.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Maybe a proposal is to loosen FDA requirements during emergencies, and allow these ventilators to be sold on the free market after minimal testing (and sold with the understanding that they are as-is). Seeing how inefficient and slow our he
117.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Is this just an ad for triplebyte?
118.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
I feel like this is implying this is a bad thing, which it absolutely is not. Am I the only one who hasn't stumbled onto any conspiracy theories whatsoever? I've found the internet to be an invaluable source of outstanding informa
119.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Well, if the government was matching a curve to it, on a public website that had updates daily, supported by professionals, then I think there would be less demand for random people to do it.
120.
by alexandercrohde 7y ago
Maybe people won't like this question. Is there a point at which does "social distancing" do more economic damage than it does health good? (Not saying we're there yet, just asking if such a point exists, and when.)

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