ajmurmann

8 ms·

121.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Given the company is supposedly worse $2.5T, one would think the impact of selling 2.4% of that would have a fairly small impact on the price.
122.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Couldn't they just have sold their stock for dollars?
123.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Those robot dogs have been looking amazing for as long as I can think. What's in the way of the big military contract?
124.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Deporting or deterring much of the construction workforce certainly doesn't help either
125.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Well, it doesn't help but that's where the money is and as a society we should want people to move where they are most productive. Geoffrey West shows in Scale that social outcomes like GDP, patents, etc. but also crime grow with
126.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Thank you for linking what I was too lazy to link. To add, politics usually responds to Baumol by subsidizing demand and/or more regulation. Needles to say both make it worse. Article: https://www.niskanencenter.org/cos
127.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
If you look at income distribution over time you'll see that the middle indeed shrunk. However, they moved to high income.
128.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Look at real, median household income. It's been going up and up. The things that have gone up in relative cost are housing (because we heavily regulate building it) and premium services like healthcare and education because of Baumol.
129.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
As we gain more data, might we be able to find patterns in that data that we now cannot see? I'm not only thinking of these regular scans but combining it with other data sources, like maybe regular, more complete blood panels, Apple W
130.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
A story Steven Kotkin recently told in an interview: "And so the anecdote goes that Xi Jinping bragged that they were going to — China - was going to win the competition because they had 1.3 billion people to choose talent from. They h
131.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Asteroid mining is the obvious one. That said as part of looking into SpaceX's business I learned that currently the TAM for launching other people's stuff into space is under $10 billion. SpaceX already owns most of that market.
132.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Yes, exactly. You resend it on every turn (assuming no cache hits). This is why using the shorter-lived subagent to take in that context and only return the useful result back to the longer-lived context safes tokens.
133.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
I'm referring to the contract between Anthropic and the DoD from July 2025 in which both parties agreed to Anthropic's acceptable user policies which then later were seen as unacceptable despite the same admin having signed them.
134.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
After a contract had been negotiated with the exact terms that Anthropic pushed to keep in place.
135.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Well, regulating doomsday devices is a reasonable thing to want. A reasonable regulation of such devices would call for proper safeguards and safety testing. I think Anthropic would have been fine with that. Instead what happened is a one-o
136.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
They didn't slam on the brakes though. They asked access to be limited to US citizens which ended up being hard to implement but is implementable and IMO addresses zero real concerns.
137.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
It's not even that. If Anthropic finds a way to variate citizenship the cat is back out of the bag. None of the AI-related worries I've ever heard about are addressed by limiting access to US citizens.
138.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
It's true that the initial tool response still has the same amount of tokens but it doesn't keep dragged along in the longer-lived top context.
139.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
That's assuming that this undermining of trust won't result in reduced willingness to share accurate data.
140.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
This seems to be a new iteration of what IMO made frontend work somewhat painful for almost the entire time I've been building software. It used to take the form that people did something with html that it wasn't designed to do. T
141.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
And that's ten minutes every time someone orders a dish with hollandaise because it really breaks when reheating as well. Given how much cost of labor is a factor it's easy to see why hardly any restaurant will serve real hollanda
142.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Your TAM for "space" growing in 20 years from $3 billion to 20T honestly seems like quite the stretch. Starship has been in development for about 10 years and it's still not even been to orbit. I have a hard time seeing that
143.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Isn't this because there otherwise wouldn't be allowed to fly into US airspace?
144.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
"What should a company that launches 98% of the world's non government tonnage to space (80% if you include the Chinese government) be valued at ?" The TAM of that is under $10 billion. So even owning that entire market shoul
145.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
One of my pet peeves is that in the US vehicle safety regulation is all about the passengers of the vehicle and ignores safety of people around the vehicle. The passengers are in control of what vehicle they use and already have incentive t
146.
by ajmurmann 4mo ago
Statistically the father is the most likely predator... Not sure if that's actionable.
147.
by ajmurmann 5mo ago
The thought experiment of what would have happened if manufacturing had required much less labor to begin with night be an interesting one. We would have had fewer jobs but the equilibrium price of the products would also have been much low
148.
by ajmurmann 5mo ago
The reason why ad hominems are a fallacy is because it fails to engage with the actual argument being made. The same seems likely to happen when arguments are dismissed because of their AI origin. While that dismissal is somewhat reasonable
149.
by ajmurmann 5mo ago
Is this (ironically) the new ad hominem?
150.
by ajmurmann 5mo ago
Isn't he for relaxing zoning? Arguably one of the main pieces of red tape leading to the housing crisis

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