aetherson

8 ms·

91.
by aetherson 1y ago
Okay, a heated debate in my slack group is now going. We need more deets: * When you say that you don't hand-wash, can you clarify? Does that mean you just take the dish and put it directly into the dishwasher after throwing any larg
92.
by aetherson 1y ago
I've seen a lot of people claim this for 15 years, but every experience I've ever had with minimal or no handwashing of dishes before putting them in the dishwasher has resulted in visibly dirty dishes. It's possible that the
93.
by aetherson 1y ago
More likely they are unable to update their own status page, but in either case not covering themselves in glory over at GCP right now.
94.
by aetherson 1y ago
Cloudflare status page reports an issue: https://www.cloudflarestatus.com/
95.
by aetherson 1y ago
Does anyone know if it's region-specific? We're experiencing it and are in us-west-1.
96.
by aetherson 1y ago
We're experiencing intermittent slowness and timeouts on our GCP everything.
97.
by aetherson 1y ago
There's a little of this, but more so, you only get one reconciliation bill per year. And anything that's not a reconciliation bill has to be bipartisan.
98.
by aetherson 1y ago
People on this thread badly need to familiarize themselves with most-favored-nation/permanent normal trade relations. There seems to be a contingent who believe that there are a mess of separately negotiated tariffs between each count
99.
by aetherson 1y ago
We have most favored nation status with most other countries, so they generally don't have any other nation that is getting better terms than we do. That's the point of the WTO.
100.
by aetherson 1y ago
Albeit in limited areas and, as far as we can tell, with pretty high unit costs. But I think the smart money is that Waymo will get appreciably better in the 5-10 year timeline. Perhaps massively, crazily better, but at least steadily, not
101.
by aetherson 1y ago
It's uneven, I do see places that seem to have kept self-checkout minimal or nonexistent, but I think that you're right that overall it's winning.
102.
by aetherson 1y ago
We also have some circumstantial evidence that trade across the Bering strait was very limited or non-existent in that it didn't appear to introduce Eurasian diseases to North America.
103.
by aetherson 1y ago
People need to divorce the training method from the result. Imagine that you were given a very large corpus of reddit posts about some ridiculously complicated fantasy world, filled with very large numbers of proper names and complex magic
104.
by aetherson 1y ago
It is at least theoretically possible that "women with resume A" is statistically likely to outperform (or underperform) "man with resume A." A model with sufficient world knowledge might take that into consideration an
105.
by aetherson 1y ago
Just think how young they would've died otherwise. ;)
106.
by aetherson 1y ago
Surely if there is one person in history who we would be pretty sure would be thrilled to have a posthumous animatronic version of himself, it is Walt Disney.
107.
by aetherson 1y ago
Armies are combined arms, with few exceptions (Mongolian horde, perhaps), they didn't have just a single unit type. But armored heavy cavalry (with stirrups) wasn't some kind of weird sociological hang-up of European nations, it
108.
by aetherson 1y ago
You only went to that effort to support cavalry because it won battles.
109.
by aetherson 1y ago
Dammit, came here to say that.
110.
by aetherson 1y ago
You don't appear to know what "average" means. You mean that the modal value is zero. The average value is not. There are all kinds of bets where the modal value is zero or negative that are good bets!
111.
by aetherson 1y ago
You played a stupid game, you won a stupid prize. Something is different than nothing. When people repeatedly insist that something and nothing are the same, they get trivial answers. And learn which side of the digits a dollar sign goes o
112.
by aetherson 1y ago
Sounds like your startup equity has been worth about $3000-$5000 per year?
113.
by aetherson 1y ago
Yes. Something is more than nothing. This is not rocket science. I really want to insist on the principle that we are nuanced enough people to say, "startup equity is worth less, in expected value, than public company equity, but &#x
114.
by aetherson 1y ago
They sure are insistent on it being literally zero for people who don't think it's literally zero. If you like, I'm happy to update my claim to, "startup equity often has non-trivial value, say, >$1000 per year."
115.
by aetherson 1y ago
It's not really possible to have nice uncontested stats about this because the definitions of the rounds aren't fully neat, there are potentially generational effects, and how you divide up industries isn't fully neat either.
116.
by aetherson 1y ago
I'm honestly stunned that people here are performatively math-illiterate. Some companies experience liquidity events. Therefor the value of equity in those companies is positive. Some companies go out of business. Therefor the value
117.
by aetherson 1y ago
The rate of having a liquidity event for startups, particularly startups past the A stage, is just obviously not ultra low. Like, is it better than 50%? Reader, it is not! But it's not sub 10%, either. People can make intelligent de
118.
by aetherson 1y ago
I assure you that statistics do not show it is best to value equity at 0.
119.
by aetherson 1y ago
Founding dates? I don't know. IPO dates were 2007, 2019, 2023.
120.
by aetherson 1y ago
I've worked at 8 companies, 3 have resulted in value from equity (all granted pre-IPO), all of them in certainly much larger than "a decent holiday" level. I think people have updated to be much too negative on the prospect o

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