aerhardt

5 ms·

31.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
Why are they not preaching for protected weights, but public , ie, under state control? What do you feel his posture will be if that is starting to be discussed? Also, on an unrelated note, why would you have an account for 5 years and o
32.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
So this is the one, huh?
33.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
I don't think at $1,500 you're not forced to code on your own at all, in the sense of typing code. You're simply forced to not yolo-max twelve parallel agents at all times.
34.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
Classical supply and demand models do not show that increasing the price of x causes quantities to first go up then down after a certain inflection point… You could probably make the relationship through utility rather or a proxy model (you
35.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
They’re possibly great at generating alpha in highly complex systems that compose LLMs with tabular machine learning and other analytical techniques at a large scale. So yea, certainly not for these users.
36.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
You could maybe somehow relate it to supply and demand dynamics, but the idea that that higher taxes can start reducing receipts after a certain point is widely credited to Laffer (although apparently there are signals of others saying simi
37.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
France's government expenditure is 57% of its GDP according to th OECD. It's probably an all-time record in the annals of global economic history in peacetime. It's more than the late Soviet Union spent around 1985-1990 accor
38.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
That's how I feel about most of your writing. I click through most times when I see you either on the front page or in the comments, and I generally walk away feeling like I have food for thought, without necessarily buying everything
39.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
I like his other posts. He's bullish on AI, which is fine. I'd like to read a mix of bearish and bullish level-headed takes from people who are subject matter experts. His technical credentials are well past discussion - I love Dj
40.
by aerhardt 4mo ago
I find this analysis confusing. PMF for coding was likely reached some time last year. Profitability, which is different, we don’t know. The article kind of confuses both without making a strong economic case or using numbers in a compellin
41.
by aerhardt 5mo ago
What they told me and I can read online is that they don’t because they can’t operate on the Austin highways. Have you read anything that’s more detailed?
42.
by aerhardt 5mo ago
I’ve just been to Austin where self-driving cars are everywhere but found to my disappointment that they can’t do trips to the airport. To your point, knowledge work, as a whole is a much larger and complex domain than self-driving.
43.
by aerhardt 5mo ago
You’re trying to tell me, in an infinitely smug, condescending, and unnecessarily long-winded manner that you know as a clinical fact that Sam Altman is a psycopath?
44.
by aerhardt 5mo ago
For all his weirdness and moral failings, I don’t see Altman saying things like whites being under apartheid in the US. And worse. Multiple times a day. Every day.
45.
by aerhardt 5mo ago
Dario Amodei said in the most recent interview with Dwarkesh that Anthropic currently gets achieves an increase of around 20-30% coding productivity, which tracks with my experience. What do you do to reap orders of magnitude more? Also, ho
46.
by aerhardt 5mo ago
I've been selling and managing my own projects for over six years, so I don't count myself in the antisocial camp. But LLMs haven't changed the fact that I like to have at least five hours of deep work every day.
47.
by aerhardt 5mo ago
I hope you appreciate the irony of saying that in a thread where we are discussing that OpenAI's main competitor is engaging in blatantly anti-consumer behavior.
48.
by aerhardt 5mo ago
You're at least describing someone who sounds hard-working... what's the problem? I'd be more concerned if I was someone who signed up to play ping pong two hours a day and do a bi-weekly commit. There was a time not so long
49.
by aerhardt 5mo ago
They're worried about the next step, when we haven't quite digested the current step?
50.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
I'm actually surprised that at the scale that AI is being used, we haven't seen more of this - or worse.
51.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
Of course a counterfactual is needed, absent clear separation of causes and links to effects, neither of which the productivity metrics on their own establish. This is also widely known and talked about in econ circles in the face of this v
52.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
> "information technology" generally didn't increase productivity Do you think it'd be viable to run most businesses on pen and paper? I'll give you email and being able to consume informational websites - rest i
53.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
When they decide to touch something as they go, they often don't improve it. Not what I would call "refactoring" but rather a yank of the slot machine's arm.
54.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
I'm building a website in Astro and today I've been scaffolding localization. I asked Codex 5.4 x-high to follow the official guidelines for localization and from that perspective the implementation was good. But then it decides t
55.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
No it is not, but they had a unique positioning around open-source and the parent commenter means that they are losing it.
56.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
Specialization works by vertical or by function. Or you can actually mix them if your TAM remains large enough. Yes, the parent was referring to technical specialization. But my point is either works. Especially in the context of what OP is
57.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
I've tried reading this and I can't. It's not that the text is AI generated, it's that the whole structure seems to be. (Hope you appreciate the irony of my LLMisms). It's not human-parseable, at least not by this h
58.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
I've drifted across projects in different industries (FMCG, investment funds, ad agencies, startups of various sorts) and like I said I had a long project (over two years) for an executive search firm and got to see the ins and outs of
59.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
> Become an expert in 1 thing I endorse this. I've been doing generalist consulting for about six years, and I love flying solo. I've been successful in landing some big customers and interesting projects, but I'm tired of
60.
by aerhardt 6mo ago
I don't dislike AI, I use it every day for coding and increasingly for non-technical tasks, and have also used it in enterprise workloads to great success. I am fairly optimistic about it - I think it will remove a lot of drudgery and

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