aaronjg

18 ms·

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by aaronjg 15y ago
Lead data scientist at Custora here. The problem with linear regression (or any machine learning technique) in CLV prediction is extrapolation. Since we are making a predictive measure, we are projecting out what customers will spend in the
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by aaronjg 15y ago
Thanks for the feedback, and I'm sorry you found it crass. It is fairly speculative, but we thought it would be interesting to people interested in machine learning and curious about how Target might have approached the problem.
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by aaronjg 15y ago
Have you seen polychart? They are providing an ad-hoc data visualization layer in javascript.
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by aaronjg 15y ago
For a good description of OLAP data structures and algorithms, I'm a fan of _Data Mining_ by Jiawei Han and Micheline Kamber
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Presenting Anything as Stastically Significant(people.psych.cornell.edu)
2 points by aaronjg 15y ago|1 comments
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by aaronjg 15y ago
There is a big gap between the disciplines of Data Science and engineering, that makes it difficult to translate the code. When you are trying to discover answer to a statistical problem it doesn't make much difference if a task takes 30 mi
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by aaronjg 15y ago
Churn also goes down in retail. If you look at retail cohort analysis, you will say that 10% of users are active three months after their first transaction, and then 5% are still active six months later. So you lose 90% in the first three m
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by aaronjg 15y ago
The site seems to be down for me. Here is the a google cache link: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:JmMIBrO...
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by aaronjg 15y ago
The following quote is also relevant (from the 1969 postcript to the book) "A number of those who have taken pleasure from it have done so less because it illuminates science than because they read its main theses as applicable to many othe
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by aaronjg 15y ago
Amazon S3 price also takes into account having redundancy at three data centers. So you should multiply the cost by 3, just for that. Of course if you don't need the redundancy, you can build it for cheaper. Also for some applications it re
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by aaronjg 15y ago
Yes. In addition to the lifecycle marketing product, we have a section of the application devoted to predictive analytics.
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by aaronjg 15y ago
There are two big problems that we deal with. First is estimation of customer lifetime value. We use a latent attrition model, which is the 'pattern matching' The second is figuring out which promotions/emails go to which people. This is a
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by aaronjg 15y ago
We're offering this service at Custora. You upload as many creatives as you would like, and then our product figures out who and when to send them. Say you have emails suggesting TASK X, TASK Y. You upload the four creatives, and we can tel
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A Step-by-Step Guide to Smart Business Experiments(hbr.org)
2 points by aaronjg 15y ago|0 comments
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by aaronjg 15y ago
I really like the scatter plots. Are you using a plotting library to do it, or do you have your own code?
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by aaronjg 15y ago
I just tried it twice, once on a public wi-fi network. And then again when I got home. It worked very well on the public wifi, and had many false positives at home. It seems to work better on slower internet connections. The script returns
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by aaronjg 15y ago
The definition of churn rate was the subject of a shareholders' lawsuit against Netflix in 2004. The shareholders accused Netflix of reporting an artificially low churn rate using: Number of Customers churn / (Number of customers at beg
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by aaronjg 15y ago
One cool feature would be how to handle substitutions. For example, if I am trying to make a pie crust. And I don't have butter, it would be good to be able to cross out butter, and see crisco or vegetable oil added to the list. Or by addin
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Burning a NeXT Magnesium Cube(simson.net)
96 points by aaronjg 15y ago|20 comments
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by aaronjg 15y ago
I have seen some people get performance gains from using UDP. TCP tends to back off rather aggressively after even a single dropped packet, and the connection is slow to get back to speed. With UDP, the uploader can just stream packets wit
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AWS Elastic Load Balancer sends 2 Million Netflix API Requests to Wrong Customer(thebuzzmedia.com)
7 points by aaronjg 15y ago|0 comments
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by aaronjg 15y ago
When I go to the site (Firefox & Chrome on Linux), I can't enter any search. I see the logo, with the text 'Song Rabbit' below, and when I click on the text it disappears. But I don't see any text input fields.
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by aaronjg 15y ago
Indeed! That is why it is so important to include heterogeneity of the customer base in calculations. You tend to lose the flighty customers early so retention rates increase the longer a customer has been using the service.
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by aaronjg 15y ago
Customer Lifetime Value is a measure of the value per customer. So if acquisition rates are changing the value of the /customer base/ will change, but the CLV will not.