a008t

12 ms·

61.
by a008t 8y ago
Is part of Waymo's perceived success in that they are more conservative with deploying their technology? I.e. it is tested at lower speed, on specific routes, in specific weather etc.?
62.
by a008t 8y ago
HFT - yes. But longer-term investment (i.e. Buffett - or even with a horizon of a couple of years) is unlikely to be transformed soon - ML needs vast historical data, which is very slow to generate. Waiting 10 years only gives you 10 years
63.
Ask HN: Which industries will be transformed by ML in 10 years?
25 points by a008t 8y ago|7 comments
64.
by a008t 8y ago
On the other hand: 1. Determining skill from luck is difficult if we have a very small sample of successful trades (e.g. shorting banks correctly in 2008, but getting everything else wrong) 2. In order for a diversified investor (e.g. into
65.
by a008t 8y ago
How are they even still in business?
66.
by a008t 8y ago
I agree on the indie games. I enjoyed VVVVV and Doki Doki Literature Club. Out of recent AAA titles, Prey was very encouraging, GTA5 was pretty damn good, the recent Hitman is quite good also. I just think that the time period I mention had
67.
by a008t 8y ago
No - but I was waiting for years for the Deus Ex: Revision mod to be completed, yet have not found the time to play it yet.
68.
by a008t 8y ago
Possibly because most forums seem to have died? Or maybe they died because they got excluded from search results?
69.
by a008t 8y ago
What I find absolutely fascinating is that there are only 16 years between the release of GTA1 and GTA5. How could such amazing progress have occurred in such a short timeframe? It's unbelievable.
70.
by a008t 8y ago
GTA3 was actually released roughly at the same time and probably overshadowed Mafia. I think Mafia was the better game overall, though.
71.
by a008t 8y ago
Video games have gone Hollywood. Largely because of improvements in graphics, game budgets have gone way up and studios are afraid to take risks. Hence you get mostly sequels, online cash cows, linear on-rails shooters/cinematic experi
72.
by a008t 8y ago
As a thought experiment, imagine that you could rent a million dollar house for 1$/year. Then renting is obviously the smart thing to do. So rental yields are an important factor, as are your expectations of house price growth, opportu
73.
by a008t 8y ago
How do we reconcile these results with, e.g. YOLO performance in videos like this? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kxX09i4fds Those models don't seem to be THAT brittle.
74.
by a008t 8y ago
ML is ill-defined. But take most textbooks on ML, and you will find regularized linear regression, decision trees, cross-validation and bootstrapping all in there. In my view, the main difference between ML and plain statistics is that with
75.
by a008t 8y ago
But what if the nuclear missile is being carried by a bipedal walking tank?
76.
by a008t 8y ago
I never said anything about who to hire.
77.
by a008t 8y ago
Not necessarily. Cross-validation can give you a valid estimate of out-of-sample performance even if you have more dimensions than samples, and even if some of the features you have are (sporadically) perfectly correlated with the target va
78.
by a008t 8y ago
It depends on the application. You might want to use the data to verify your intuition, which may not be consistent with the data. Or your intuition may have been based on the very same dataset but overfit to it. I do think that people that
79.
by a008t 8y ago
When you say ML, you must mean deep learning applied to unstructured data (vision, audio). ML in general can absolutely be used with small datasets. ML is all about finding the right model complexity to fit to the data to maximize out-of-sa
80.
by a008t 8y ago
1. Could maturity transformation not be done by the markets? E.g. if you want a mortgage, you essentially issue a bond; lenders may then decide to hold the bond for a short period of time and then sell it on the secondary market. With regar
81.
by a008t 8y ago
"Convincingly" would be a bit of an overstatement.
82.
by a008t 8y ago
Car emissions are getting cleaner, leading to cleaner air. That would be one example. Deindustrialization of the West led to improvements in ecology as well, I imagine.
83.
by a008t 8y ago
If Austrians cannot give one an idea of, for example, what the outcome of QE would be, then what is the value of this school of thought? Does that not make it merely an interesting abstract theory with no practical real-world applications?
84.
by a008t 8y ago
You are right - this will be a strong incentive to keep as little as possible in a checking account, and either lend or invest the rest. There are two main differences from the current system: 1. Depositors will have to explicitly give up&#
85.
by a008t 8y ago
The problem with sovereign debt is that it is likely to be inflated away instead of getting restructured. As a result, all lenders lose, borrowers win, all holders of risky assets lose as risk premiums go up. To make things worse, inflation
86.
by a008t 8y ago
If you consider fractional reserve banking as fraud (banks should only be allowed to lend out funds that you have lent to the bank for a period of time, not funds that you are merely storing in your checking account; a bank run in this cont
87.
by a008t 8y ago
That last paragraph sounds suspiciously close to what most governments with a sovereign currency are doing.
88.
by a008t 8y ago
I think the question of what is the optimum human population of a country, continent, planet that maximizes prosperity and welfare is an interesting one. Yet, apart from the problem of humans still having to be in actual close physical prox
89.
by a008t 8y ago
What do you mean by "eventually"? I find Austrian ideas very interesting. Yet the usefulness of an economic theory can be demonstrated in two ways: 1. How well the implemented ideas/policies work in practice. This is usually
90.
by a008t 8y ago
Strong, decentralized maths education. Maths and physics were emphasized, so there are plenty of free schools specializing on maths and physics, teaching both at a very high standard. In these schools, the focus is on the best students and

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