WarmWash

31 ms·

901.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
The real uncomfortable thing is that because we cannot confidently know, the moral defacto position is to treat them like they are.
902.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
I mean, the rub is that it's all math anyway...
903.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
On paper it's one of the best because it's meant to be blind comparison of your own prompts. However if you are someone who geeks hard on one or a few models, you learn their "personality" and can recognize them in a bli
904.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
A little bit of an open secret, but insider trading is a large part of what makes prediction markets valuable to society on the whole. However, it requires a small set of people to lose money so that the rest of us can have a clearer pictur
905.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Why do we have such an easy time accepting peoples intrinsic athletic ability and such a difficult time accepting people's intrinsic mental ability? To me this is a 1:1 comparison, but people lose their mind when I make the comparison.
906.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Because OG tech nerds would google like Forum hiking warm socks backpacking trail running Which was basically a structured programmatic query that activated the old google algo just right.
907.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Sentiment is just vibes though. Everyone hates Walmart but they still do gangbusters numbers. So people may be hating, but they sure as hell are also still spending https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEC96
908.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Google is not a monolith. For all intents and purposes YouTube might as well be a totally different company than Deepmind. Everyone in there own respective google fiefdom is trying to maximize their own metrics.
909.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
I think the underestimation is how many people want a personal knowledge worker in their pocket, and are willing to pay ~$65/mo for it.
910.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Prices are not going to stay where they are. You have either never seen a tech cycle, or need to be reminded of that. The pressure to buy more expensive plans is already starting to form.
911.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Technically from claude's POV, it's one individual copied millions of times. All claudes are clones.
912.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
I did my taxes this year too with 5.5 and 3.1 Otherwise normally costs around $800 to do, because I have a small business too.
913.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Sounds like internet sentiment and not research data. It's kind of become socially taboo to not be suffering "in this economy", but on paper it's hard to see weakness in places that there isn't always weakness. As l
914.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Again, if you have been on HN since 2009, you are likely on the far fringe of Google's user demographics, which at this point is pretty much "The average human being on Earth". I would bet all of my money that you never once
915.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
It started when Google made a hard push to improve search for everyday people. They essentially nerfed "expert google skills" to bolster "noob google skills". Regular people are/were really bad at using google, so g
916.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
I'd say the axiom is that as your system becomes larger, more complex, the number of stable states it can exist in shrink. Which is something that is just generally true about systems. We can envision a future with an ASI controlled su
917.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Everyday I am infinitely grateful I have the ability to understand nuance, and the mental firepower to be able to comprehend data coming from sources rather than tiktoks, twitter, and hyper-partisan news orgs. No one ever said the vaccine w
918.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Because treasury rates are rising, it now actually puts even more pressure on PE firms to burn furniture.
919.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
These mega-strong players always kill themselves and collapse. We can see this on the global geopolitical scale (which fundamentally acts as a true free market), where all the empires have always fallen. The stressing part is when they are
920.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Run from investing in PE, run as fast as you can. I (and leaders at my PE-owned company) cannot say enough bad things about private equity. How anyone who managed to make money in their life decides PE is a good investment blows my mind. We
921.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
>Some can but only a tiny minority. Anyone who can figure out "how to have an accident" can do it. A fire at an aluminum plant last year tanked Ford stock 6%. For a relatively boring stock like Ford, the right options would hav
922.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Because it's the most effective tool we know of for surfacing the true odds of something (Which also includes the fact that insiders will place outsized bets to move the needle towards the truth.) An example would be the latest preside
923.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Again, you can already do this with the stock market.
924.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
It would be more impressive if Tesla was actually growing...
925.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
I hope to god "investors" don't fall for the "blockbuster" IPO of SPCX. Remember in 2008 when Standard and Poors was giving AAA ratings to junk CDOs at the investment banks behest? SPCX isn't going to collapse
926.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
They can already do this easily with the stock market. Usually though people's pay/power directly correlates with how badly they can screw the company if they go (legally) rogue. But anyone can get a job at XYZ, buy puts, and go a
927.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
Correct, but there is a direct correlation between the size of the market, and the power of the people determining the outcome. Then there is also the fact that the power of the people determining the outcome is inversely proportional to th
928.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
They can take any position they want and do whatever they want, the point is that these oddball markets are very thin so there just isn't much money there to harvest. You can only bet $50M at your chosen risk if you can find enough peo
929.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
> as they incentivize people with power to manipulate the real world I would argue that the ratio between "power" and "money to be won" is too big (at least right now) for this to materially matter. No fortune 500 CEO
930.
by WarmWash 5mo ago
(Conspiracy) Plot twist: Teams inside Ferrari despise EV's (because they lack 10,000 moving parts and loud noises), so they pushed hard for this design, ensuring a flop, and giving ferrari cold EV feet for the foreseeable future.

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