VHRanger

88 ms·

1321.
by VHRanger 10y ago
Right. What I said is generally true for Central Bank forecasts, because they have an effect on interest rates (which they set). But the expectation of change in interest rates changes lending and borrowing behavior now, etc. That said, it&
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by VHRanger 10y ago
Check his patreon.
1323.
by VHRanger 10y ago
Economics is not about predicting, it's about understanding things. It's basically impossible to do the former at scale for time periods over 6 months, we're slowly getting better at the latter. One big reason economic foreca
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by VHRanger 10y ago
Nobody takes Steve Keen seriously. He doesn't even have a university job anymore.
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by VHRanger 10y ago
My point is that it's very easy to check "model calibration" (eg. "Plug values from outside data"). Just run the code with different values. Because it's so easy to check those things (assuming the data is not
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by VHRanger 10y ago
The US (and Canada and Australia) are bad on climate change because they have entrenched interests in fossil fuels which leads to political lobbying. Europe doesn't have those specific problems, but it has others. Politicians will do w
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by VHRanger 10y ago
How many coal mines or tar sands fields are there in europe?
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by VHRanger 10y ago
> Can we agree that the state of the scientific field is as good as a decisions taken based on the achievements in this field? Certainly not, or else climate science would still be in thorough disagreement about whether or not there&#x27
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by VHRanger 10y ago
If the paper gets traction and the model specification is indeed not robust, the first thing you'll see in a few months is something like "paper xyz: comment" driving holes in the methodology getting even more traction. Empir
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by VHRanger 10y ago
Right, but this is a political problem. H-O (or Ricardian trade) is about the simplest model of trade you can come up with to show the concept. It's not like economists don't know there are problems in distribution of wealth -- on
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by VHRanger 10y ago
Is you "economics background" a BA, by any chance? The people who say economics "became religion" are usually those whose only exposure to economics is through secondhand knowledge (ie. they read about it in media) or to