Taek

95 ms·

931.
by Taek 7y ago
Easy solution is to run the trial again with 2-3x the sample size. If you think there are a lot of lot of studies we are searching, use 5x the sample size.
932.
by Taek 7y ago
I'd much rather live in a world where everyone is required to wear masks all the time than live in a world where we are all told to stay home all the time. I believe it's also well established that any measures taken to slow the s
933.
by Taek 7y ago
"For the purposes of this blog, we will narrowly define blockchains as a Byzantine-fault tolerant consensus protocol" I don't think this is a useful definition. Blockchains are about trust and control, not Byzantine fault tol
934.
by Taek 7y ago
As an open source maintainer, I can tell you that we appreciate the small fixes and updates that come from people just getting their feet wet. Even little things like spelling mistakes, or fixing a bug in an infrequently used command line o
935.
by Taek 7y ago
In most contexts, "IPFS" really just means "self-hosted", because it only works if someone who actually cares about the file (in practice, just the author typically) is seeding it. For Sia/Skynet, the Sia network is
936.
by Taek 7y ago
It's hard to accept that Italy hasn't even been under water for a full two weeks yet, it feels like months. But I guess you are right, Italy didn't really crack down until early March.
937.
by Taek 7y ago
Not surprising at all. First off you need screens, molds, and other one-per-machine equipment that has to be fully custom to whatever product you want to build. When expedited, these things can still take a week or more to create. From ther
938.
by Taek 7y ago
These rankings are important because it helps us get a feel for what type of quarantine action is getting the virus under control. Any country with sufficient testing that's managed to bring the growth rate below exponential is worth a
939.
by Taek 7y ago
Is there a reliable link to the number of people on ventilators? I've only been able to find time series data for number of deaths. Which is helpful, but way too much of a lagging indiactor.
940.
by Taek 7y ago
I really don't think they are doing enough. The virus is still growing at an exponential rate, and when you look at the other countries that managed to get things under control vs. the ones that didn't, the actions that NYC and th
941.
by Taek 7y ago
There is a material risk that you are more likely to lose both than just one. I'm sure that having patients share a ventilator increases the risk of death over each having their own. How big that increase is determines whether or not
942.
by Taek 7y ago
South Korea has done a good job of getting enough tests done to have meaningful data
943.
by Taek 7y ago
Open source toothbrush that's not connected to the cloud.
944.
by Taek 7y ago
Heavy testing and aggressive isolation of infected persons and areas seems to be effective. In the absence of heavy testing, broad quarantine seems to be effective. The answer at this point seems to be heavy, widespread quarantine until tes
945.
by Taek 7y ago
Please provide a link with data
946.
by Taek 7y ago
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article "The case-fatality risks, when adjusted for a 13-day lag time from reporting to death, were 3.5% in China; 0.8% in China, excluding Hubei Provi
947.
by Taek 7y ago
What data supports 0.1% - 0.5%?
948.
by Taek 7y ago
I'm not sure how they got 1.7 million dead as the worst case scenario. That implies a mortality rate of 0.7%. Mortality rates for Covid19/SARS2 are estimated to be closer to 3.5% by the WHO, a 35x jump. At 214 million infected, th
949.
by Taek 7y ago
Covid19 is closer to SARS than the flu, and is known to cause permanent lung, kidney, and testicle damage, even in young and healthy patients. Even among young patients, the ICU rate is as high as 10%. A low mortality rate for young people
950.
by Taek 7y ago
Some countries have been successful in getting the virus under control. Quick, decisive quarantine followed by heavy testing to carefully track and manage the virus has enabled badly effected regions to mostly get back to normal. The worst
951.
by Taek 7y ago
From the CDC: "but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered." https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0320_article
952.
by Taek 7y ago
I really hope we lock down fast enough that the total number of infections in the US stays below 1 million. 1 million infections is the point where we run out of ICU beds (ICU rate of 10%, US has 100k ICU beds), and that's the point wh
953.
by Taek 7y ago
At first I was happy to see this. But now I am not happy to see this, because it's making me realize that this is the only action that's going to be put in place over the next few days. Too little, too late. This type of regulatio
954.
by Taek 7y ago
Once you have large scale testing available, you can do heavy testing in a region to determine the risk, and then you can release quarantine on regions where there are no infections. Control is much easier if testing is cheap and ubiquitous
955.
by Taek 7y ago
The situation today is: + treatment plans not well understood, but evolving rapidly + not enough face masks + not enough sanitizer + not enough test kits to identify and isolate outbreaks All four of those elements are absolutely critical t
956.
by Taek 7y ago
Some areas of Italy had a doubling rate of once per 2.4 days. So Germany, with twice as many hospital beds, gets 2.4 days extra of reaction time. Exponents are terrifying.
957.
by Taek 7y ago
The 0.2% fatality rate depends heavily on access to sufficient medical care. If you infect 40 million people at once, you won't have enough hospital beds and the morality rate will skyrocket.
958.
by Taek 7y ago
It's estimated that as many as 20% of the infected are asymptomatic, including no fever. A lot of your suggestions would fail to contain the virus. I do believe that widespread testing and tracing would be effective. Given that we don&
959.
Covid19: Some Baseline Information(medium.com)
2 points by Taek 7y ago|0 comments
960.
by Taek 7y ago
No leader wants to take drastic action for their nation when the number of deaths they can point to for justification is smaller than the number of deaths for the seasonal flu. If they save lives and prevent the disease from spreading, it l

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