RA_Fisher

9 ms·

121.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
I wonder how they’ll get around the model producing “average,” (mediocre) outputs? Perhaps quantity?
122.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Cool for the perspective, but also subsumed by the concept of returns to scale (that entails diminishing returns and includes constant and increasing returns to scale). ie- rediscovery of microeconomics
123.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Sure, this chat describes what I have in mind, https://chatgpt.com/share/673e9290-a044-8005-995b-166efe653e...
124.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
For sure. There are ML folks with statistical learning backgrounds, but it tends to be relatively rare. Physics and CS are more common. They tend to view things like you mention, more procedural eg- learning to rank, minimizing distances, l
125.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Hi David. Nice to meet you. Yes, precision and recall are always in tension. However, both can be made simultaneously better with a more informed model. Using your example, this would be a model that encodes the concept of files in the cont
126.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Best is to use one statistical model and encode the underlying aspects of the context that relate to goal outcomes.
127.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Statisticians are famously disliked, especially by engineers (there are open-minded folks, of course! maybe they’d taken some econometrics or statistics, are exceptionally humble, etc). There are some interesting motives and incentives arou
128.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
I don’t think it’s realistic to think that software engineers can pick up advanced statistical modeling on the job, unless they’re pairing with statisticians. There’s just too much background involved.
129.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
For sure, it’s very popular, just not the best anymore (and actually far from it).
130.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
I’m sure Search experts would disagree, because it’d be their technology they’d be admitting is inferior to another. BM25 is the workhorse, no doubt— but it’s also not the best anymore. Vectors are a step toward learning models, but only a
131.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
BM25 can be used as a starting point for a statistical learning model and more readily built on. A key advantage is that one gains a systematic way to reduce edge cases, instead of handling a couple, bc they’re so large as to be noticeable.
132.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Google’s come a long way since PageRank + terms. Ancient doesn’t mean bad, but usually it means outdated and that’s the case here. Search algos are subsumed by learning models, our species can do better now.
133.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
BM25 is an ancient algo developed in the 1970s. It’s basically a crappy statistical model and statisticians can do far better today. Search is strictly dominated by learning (that yes, can use search as an input). Not many folks realize tha
134.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Well obviously Terence isn’t an economist. People don’t minimize risk, we maximize utility.
135.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
It’s cronyism.
136.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Single functions and libraries can easily be imported in R, just like Python. It’s not necessary though, because the R community does a good job avoiding name conflicts (MASS aside). I think the core issue is that the coordination benefits
137.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Cursed in your view because it’s not Python?
138.
by RA_Fisher 2y ago
Learning tech improves on search tech (and makes it obsolete), because search is about distance minimization not integration of information.
139.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
I’d vote for Sirious.
140.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
Indeed, it's exploitation.
141.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
Americans are relatively wealthy and hence choose to spend more on healthcare. That’s not surprising to me.
142.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
Of course they will, medical technology improves over time.
143.
Beyond Hypothesis Tests and P-Values: Model Iteration in Science and Business(statwonk.com)
1 points by RA_Fisher 3y ago|0 comments
144.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
It may be that after analyzing the data, we still have substantial uncertainty, just depends on the process’s inherent variability and what the data provides in terms of information (a function of the skill of the person determining what sh
145.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
Exactly. Continuing with the lease would be a classic case of sunk cost fallacy.
146.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
Sites are always getting new visitors, losing old ones and the ones they’ve observed return irregularly (or commonly, or somewhere in between). So it’s not realistic to assume a given sample of visitors is the population.
147.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
So sorry to read this. I'm thankful for the positive example she set for all of us. Gone but not forgotten.
148.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
I think you're in good company there. Kudos on seizing the opportunity. I built a tool that can help with this. It's free to try and I'd love to learn of any feedback you have: https://modelgymai.com/
149.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
Exactly! With even just 3 chained calls, 98% individual chance of failure ^ 3 calls ~ 94.1% joint probability of success or 5.9% failure global rate. That's a failure rate of 1 out of 17. Problems like those and my experience as a reli
150.
by RA_Fisher 3y ago
A multi-year contract could mitigate that risk.

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