RA_Fisher

5 ms·

61.
by RA_Fisher 9mo ago
If they made it clear when skills were being used / monitored that, it'd seem to mitigate a lot of the problem.
62.
by RA_Fisher 9mo ago
Depends if the job requires a lot of information and the person is excellent at what they do, bc then AI augments the worker more than substitutes them. But for many people, yes, AI will mostly substitute their labor (and take their job, pr
63.
by RA_Fisher 10mo ago
Yes, for sure! I can think of a few ways.
64.
by RA_Fisher 10mo ago
100% (am a Bayesian statistician). Isn’t it fascinating how it comes down to quality of judgement (and the descriptions thereof)? We need an LMArena rated by experts.
65.
by RA_Fisher 10mo ago
Demand for AI is growing. It makes sense they’re trying to increase profits.
66.
by RA_Fisher 10mo ago
The issue in that case is that OLS is BLUE, the best linear unbiased estimator (best in the sense of minimum variance). This property is what makes OLS exceptional.
67.
by RA_Fisher 10mo ago
LLMs are okay at bisecting programs and identifying bugs in my experience. Sometimes they require guidance but often enough I can describe the symptom and they identify the code causing the issue (and recommend a fix). They’re fairly method
68.
by RA_Fisher 10mo ago
Thanks for sharing. It’s an alluring idea. I think you’d find the concept of statistical identifiability interesting.
69.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
As a reliability statistician (and web user!), I'd love to see Cloudflare investing in reliability statistics. :)
70.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Excellent analysis. It’s like: servant of whom (themselves)?
71.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
They can get a better interest rate by using a specialty data center lender.
72.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Smart is being able to produce knowledge quickly. I’m not sure how it could be denied that AIs are capable of producing knowledge quickly (obviously extremely quickly).
73.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Yeah, I think a lot of people are very insecure. I’m genuinely sorry for them. I think the best thing to do is to derive utility from AI (to mitigate the costs).
74.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
They’re urgently being given agency by companies and people.
75.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
When models become sufficiently sophisticated, they practically become the phenomenon they’re modeling (by limit).
76.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Sorry about the frustration. I agree they’re far from perfect (like us). They have habits, bc they model us.
77.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
> super specialist in a specific science I’m a super specialist in statistics and GPT5 and Gemini know much more than me about the topic.
78.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
> If this is true then almost all of the jobs in the world would already be replaced by AI. We have to account for human inertia. With us people, very little completely changes over night.
79.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
The paid models are already smarter than the vast majority of people.
80.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
R’s the best, bc it’s been a statistical analysis language from the beginning in 1974 (and was built and developed for the purpose of analysis / modeling). Also, the tidyverse is marvelous. It provides major productivity in organizing
81.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Thank you. If it's for strategic autonomy, it's a bad trade. China needs domestic consumption like you mention, to absorb their supply / keep people working. Weakening USD would make Chinese exports more expensive, esp. if th
82.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Will make it a lot cheaper and more accessible.
83.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Good points, I was wrong. Thank you for your thoughtful reply. Given that, I’d expect USDYUAN to rise and further reduction in China’s GDP growth.
84.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Exactly, I’d expect reducing its judgement has spillover effects, bc in a sense everything is political. ie- the idea of making it wise and unwise at the same time is incoherent. Bias comes at the expense of information.
85.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
China has no serious alternative to Treasuries (bc the closest competitors have lower yields). Also, other countries don’t place themselves in the same group as Russia, bc they violated international norms in an extreme manner.
86.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Pozsar assigns far too much weight to Russia. It’s an economically small country. He should be focused a lot more on large American companies that carry actual heft.
87.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
There’s an average amount in the average cup of coffee.
88.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Crickets, crickets, crickets ... :)
89.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
How is this not rediscovering statistics in unprincipled ways?
90.
by RA_Fisher 11mo ago
Thank you. :) I try to be careful with my claims, but when I find a big one I don’t shy away from it. Yeah, reducing patriarchal arrogance is a major opportunity for improvement in our societies.

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