NumberWangMan

13 ms·

61.
by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Really? I'm pretty worried about AGI that's not god, just a bit smarter than us, and because we're lazy and the incentives are to give power to the AI, we just start putting it in control of everything. It gets smarter, cap
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
One interesting scenario I've heard is that of the "ascended economy", where more and more economic activity is simply to provide inputs into things that other businesses need, rather than what humans need. Like, a mining com
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
> The Argument From Stephen Hawking's Cat > Stephen Hawking is one of the most brilliant people alive, but say he wants to get his cat into the cat carrier. How's he going to do it? > He can model the cat's behavior
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Some people can handle complexity, but I think they're in the minority. I'm not sure that tacking on "oh, but also climate change will be good in a few ways" is helpful in getting people to take action. So there are su
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
> It’s all very clever, yes, but at bottom it’s just a brute force approach. This is the bit that I think you should focus on a bit more. I don't think it's the case you need complicated, clever algorithms and architectures in
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Individuals will always be able to do this, but it might be enough if it's illegal and a bit of extra effort. You don't need to eliminate 100% of AI-generated spam, just make it risky and unprofitable enough that it's not a c
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Nitpick: I think we can comprehend an intelligence greater than our own, up to some point, but that's different from being able to predict its actions. And we could contain an intelligence greater than our own, up to a point. But if t
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
There's a game-theory solution to this, which is to impose a tax on imports from countries in order to make up for their lack of aggressiveness in addressing climate change, aka, a border-adjustment mechanism. It's not perfect, b
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
I would add the caveat that Chess is a game where the nature of the rules mostly eliminate any advantage of numbers, which is not necessarily the case for other sorts of competition. I'm still quite concerned about the risk of rogue AI
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
On the other hand, the case for reverse causation is particularly strong. Sleeping on the street is very likely to cause anxiety and depression. Being around lots of people using drugs 24/7 makes it a lot easier to pick up a drug hab
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
This feels related to the idea in "Billionaires, Surplus, and Replaceability" (1) Basically, if, say, Jeff Bezos never existed, it seems likely that someone else would have created Amazon, perhaps a few years later, and maybe not
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Well, let’s tax carbon and start collecting it!
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Vecr gives good analogies, but for AGI, I think investing a lot into alignment research, trying to set up incentive structures to actively avoid "arms races", establishing global oversight and agreements, having a "fire ala
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Haha, it was me, Moloch! https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/07/30/meditations-on-moloch/ In other words, these are situations where the incentives for individuals are not aligned with incentives for the gr
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
And Altman revealed that he does not own stock in OpenAI, and declined to take a position at the proposed new agency. He said he could recommend other people. If those all turn out to be OpenAI employees, then I will be disappointed and
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Yes, him being the head of an AI company means you should be skeptical. But jumping right to "let's do the exact opposite" is not sensible. Also, sitting right next to him was Gary Marcus, who doesn't have a dog in the
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Existential threat is a really hard thing to grapple with. You can't wait for real-world evidence of danger to deal with it. If there's a possibility of an asteroid coming that will wipe out life on earth, waiting until our teles
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Here as a post on his blog from 8 years ago: https://blog.samaltman.com/the-software-revolution "...development of an AI that could end human life may only require a few hundred people in an office building anywhere in
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
His point of view, that he's stated on the Lex Friedman podcast, is that AGI is potentially dangerous and inevitable, but safer to develop as soon as possible and try to make it safe by studying real-world models empirically, rather th
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Yep, and dismissing doomsday claims on this basis is a heuristic that almost always works.
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
I mean, if it’s reasoning, we may be very close to AGI, and if we are, that’s a big problem. We’re on a trajectory for these models to become a lot smarter than us, and we’re not ready to deal with that.
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
That's easy to say in the abstract, but when it comes down to the people you love actually getting hurt, it's a lot harder. > There is nothing dangerous in current ai models or ai itself other than the people controlling it. To
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Ok, so just to confirm out of your 4 scenarios, you don't include: 5) There are advanced AGIs, and they will compete with each other and trample us in the process. 6) There are advanced AGIs, and they will cooperate with each other and
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
I need to make a montage of the thousands of hacker news commenters typing "The REAL danger of AI is ..." followed by some mundane issue. I'm sorry to pick on you, but do people not get that the non-human intelligence has the
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
It won't, which is why people are also calling for international regulation. It's a really hard problem. If you think AGI is going to be very dangerous, this is a depressing situation to be in.
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
I'm more interested in hearing how someone who expects that AGI is not going to go badly thinks. I think it would be nice if humanity continued, is all. And I don't want to have my family suffer through a catastrophic event if it
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Having a bunker is also consistent with expecting that there's a good chance of apocalypse but working to stop it.
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
Patrickas responded with some examples: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35966307
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
We've already ceded all authority to an algorithm that no one can turn off. Our political and economic structures are running on their own, and no single human or even group of humans can really stop them if they go off the rails. If
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by NumberWangMan 3y ago
I honestly don't question Altman's motivations that much. I think he's blinded a bit by optimism. I also think he's very worried about existential risks, which is a big reason why he's asking for regulation. He&#

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