Lukas1994

12 ms·

91.
No-Code Monte-Carlo Simulation(blog.ladder.io)
1 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|0 comments
92.
by Lukas1994 7y ago
I'm working on a tool that lets you work with uncertainty very easily. The model I came up with is very trivial compared to Nicholas' though: https://my.causal.app/models/1432 Would be awesome if someone coul
93.
by Lukas1994 7y ago
Hey Nicholas, love the tool - great job! I'm working on a new modelling tool ( https://causal.app ) and built a COVID-19 model myself: https://my.causal.app/models/1432 . This lets you easily run Monte-Ca
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US COVID19 Forecaster(mackgrenfell.com)
4 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|0 comments
95.
Show HN: Covid-19 Simulation(causalapp.com)
5 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|0 comments
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Plan for Growth with Monte-Carlo Simulations(blog.ladder.io)
1 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|0 comments
97.
Show HN: The Performance Marketing Model(causal.app)
1 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|0 comments
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Show HN: VTI Hedging Simulation(causalapp.com)
1 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|0 comments
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Fundraising and Exits Modelling(carta.com)
3 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|0 comments
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Show HN: How does currency hedging work?(causal.app)
1 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|0 comments
101.
by Lukas1994 7y ago
Sorry for the late reply, just saw your comment. I think what you're describing is training a model and then using feature importance. This is also a valid method for calculating sensitivities and it's used if the function from in
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by Lukas1994 7y ago
Can you elaborate on that?
103.
by Lukas1994 7y ago
We're big fans of Guesstimate! We hung out with Ozzie the other day actually :) Guesstimate can't run calculations over Excel files though + as far as I know, it's running only first-order sensitivities on Guesstimate models.
104.
by Lukas1994 7y ago
You can run a simple sensitivity analysis using Excel with data tables (vary one input, keep the others constant). Large data tables usually slow down you Excel file a lot. In addition to these (first-order) sensitivities our tool also look
105.
by Lukas1994 7y ago
Hi, we’re familiar with Excel Solver but it doesn’t let you run a sensitivity analysis. You can do it using data tables which is (a) not that easy to set up and (b) can be quite slow for larger models.
106.
by Lukas1994 7y ago
Haha no worries - people read Casual all the time. We might have to change our name :D
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by Lukas1994 7y ago
It’s @causal.app :)
108.
by Lukas1994 7y ago
Yes, right now we assume independence. SALib recently added a few algorithms that can handle correlation: https://github.com/SALib/SALib/issues/193#issuecomment-55195... I'm planning to try them out soon
109.
Show HN: Excel Sensitivity Analysis Tool(causal.app)
148 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|30 comments
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by Lukas1994 7y ago
Many more stories like this: http://www.eusprig.org/horror-stories.htm
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Show HN: How does currency hedging work? An Interactive Simulation(causal.app)
3 points by Lukas1994 7y ago|0 comments
112.
by Lukas1994 8y ago
Good points — We did kinda assume that the buyer would set the rent to at least cover her ongoing costs. In the UK, for example, you can only get a “buy to let” mortgage if you can prove that you can reasonably charge enough rent to cover y
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Show HN: Should you buy a house and rent it out?(causal.app)
353 points by Lukas1994 8y ago|243 comments
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by Lukas1994 8y ago
You can include that part in the rent and set it as “annual costs” for the buying scenario.
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by Lukas1994 10y ago
"Facebook’s internal network where employees turn those gears so you can scroll past that “10 Things You Love About Potatoes” BuzzFeed article one more time."
116.
by Lukas1994 12y ago
What do you mean?
117.
by Lukas1994 12y ago
You just add a song from your phone and the YouTube link gets sent to the server.
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Show HN: NoDJ – Your crowdsourced playlist(nodj.co)
9 points by Lukas1994 12y ago|6 comments