HFguy

12 ms·

121.
by HFguy 4y ago
They are certainly growing. But not much profits in many cases. The real question is can they generate a lot of cash once they are out of hyper growth mode? Or will they just never generate much cash flow ever?
122.
by HFguy 4y ago
It is obviously, very much company by company thing. However, I've seen some analyses that put it at between 35-50% for typical SasS (i.e., they are selling to each other and other start-ups). To me, if true, that seems like rough sled
123.
by HFguy 4y ago
This is a bit of a random comment, but what you wrote was very evocative of similar experiences I've had.
124.
by HFguy 4y ago
I've been at top HFs the last 15 years, I do this for a living, and I have no idea what the guy is talking about either.
125.
by HFguy 4y ago
What? Rates matter. A lot. If you are in some corp fin job and you discount projects at 12%...fine. But saying they don't matter for equity valuations doesn't make sense. The evidence, not just lately, but throughout the last 100
126.
by HFguy 4y ago
But here's the thing...it could be made to be that simple.
127.
by HFguy 4y ago
"you’d be an idiot to ignore the realistic and adopted use-cases" Which are really what?
128.
by HFguy 4y ago
You seem to assume an increase in the future. It boomed and busted in 2017. Then wasn't going anywhere for years until central banks generated massive liquidity and all assets jumped (because cash went to zero and pushed everyone out o
129.
by HFguy 4y ago
Yes, agree, correlations don't imply causation. The TLDR is more that correlations throw a lot of information away.
130.
by HFguy 4y ago
If you are buying options (i.e., you have the optionality), youre downside is limited. If you are selling options, that isn't necessarily the case.
131.
by HFguy 4y ago
Couple of random thoughts: - Building things like this is always great. And its a fun site to poke around on. - I would not count on this approach or expect it to be reliable in terms of actually hedging. Correlation, as a measure, has lots
132.
by HFguy 4y ago
A lot of commodity inputs into food production are up way more than 8.5% (e.g., corn, wheat). And a lot of the farmers inputs (e.g., energy, fertilizer) are up more than 8.5%. The 8.5% is a weighted, blended average of a lot of things. So i
133.
by HFguy 4y ago
Yes, all assets are priced relative to the risk free rate. As the assets all compete with each other and they all compete with cash rates. So that rate can be thought of as being baked into other assets already (including equities). Having
134.
by HFguy 4y ago
Agree that many don't appreciate this, however... This is more true in Europe than the US. Most of the inflation there is due to (1) Increases in the price of energy and (2) Supply chain issues. While those are also true in the US, muc
135.
by HFguy 4y ago
It is a common mistake, but stocks don't have a positive return because GDP increases over time. They have a positive expected return over time because they have a risk premium. That is, to invest and take on risk, an investor will dem
136.
by HFguy 4y ago
FWIW, sp500 forward pe more like 18
137.
by HFguy 4y ago
"The russians beat the germans in ww2" - Russia did tie up the bulk of the German forces. And they suffered and inflicted the bulk of the causalities. So in a sense, this is true. - Regarding the topic at hand, the US and UK liter
138.
by HFguy 4y ago
Can you lay out more how you are thinking about this? I don't see it that way, but would appreciate another view point.
139.
by HFguy 4y ago
Have a strong military and don't use it. It has been shown time and time again, if you are weak, it will be taken advantage of. It is far far far cheaper to spend the money to have a strong military, than to get into an actual shooting
140.
by HFguy 4y ago
Good example. It doesn't really make sense logically to collect these (i.e., vs. just renting them). But I think I understand emotionally why people would want to collect things like this.
141.
by HFguy 4y ago
Why do you think the marketers screwed this up and not technical people? Doesn't seem like the style of screw-up they usually make.
142.
by HFguy 4y ago
Is that just the first floor or is every floor like that? I can't find pictures of what the interiors of the apartments look like.
143.
by HFguy 4y ago
Godzilla is a masterpiece https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oBpBEjMQ24k
144.
by HFguy 5y ago
What is the hobby?
145.
by HFguy 5y ago
The ending made little sense. Some of the facts of the article may be correct, but the flow of logic was odd.
146.
by HFguy 5y ago
No, there are simply not enough houses relative to demand. Just having enough space to house everyone not enough.
147.
by HFguy 5y ago
That's great. You should definitely finish the swing on this.
148.
by HFguy 5y ago
I don’t believe that the average American buys 68 pieces of clothing a year. I’d like them to share the source of that. The author doesn’t offer one that I saw. TBC, I think wearing something 3-4 times and discarding it is horrible.
149.
by HFguy 5y ago
Lumber has now gone back up. Very interesting market.
150.
by HFguy 5y ago
Try a “Soul of a New Machine” which is similar but focused on hardware.

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