Fade_Dance

8 ms·

31.
by Fade_Dance 1y ago
Intuitively, kids are kids, and kids like to play. That said, some kids across all income bases will take the opportunities that they didn't have before. Traditional education isn't the main impact I was getting at though. It ma
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
>limiting life outcomes of millions around the globe The US is such a small sliver of the world population, as is the west to some extent. ACT scores and such are extremely US centric. Smartphones were a positive revolution for so much o
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
This seems to be a widespread practice lately, so there must be something going on here. Aside from the balance sheet/accounting angle... Maybe they don't want to securitize their core assets and introduce a new favored class of i
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
The way the recent deals have been structured is that the capacity and thus revenue is pre-booked, which upgrades the credit quality in the eyes of the lenders. Blue Owl is private equity, so they are likely loading the special purpose vehi
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
VW had CARIAD, but it was a massive failure, and they moved on in spirit: "Instead of developing software for cars independently, Cariad will act as a coordinator for externally developed technologies – primarily software from Rivian a
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
In my experience (portfolio manager who has been at this for a while) the broad brush reasons and explanations are mostly backwards-looking and don't accurately explain short term price moves. For example, if in another timeline BTC he
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
Nice knowing you.
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
We were a small affluent school district and the receiving school districts were much, much larger. I'm not sure if the exact figures, but part of the issue is that it was a low tax jurisdiction in general, and presumably the program w
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
Having had direct experience with a system like that, my anecdotal experience was that the affluent school still has more than enough money (anecdotal), while the poorer surrounding school districts were critically underfunded (not quite as
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
>Is the population too stupid to be permitted general purpose computers? I'm strongly against this Android change (for a simple reason written below) but the answer to this is a resounding yes! The general population is a complete s
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
The physical world is within regulated frameworks though. There is no regulatory body in charge of the Ethereum blockchain. The prosecution is alleging that there was a "promise" to the victim, which would let the transaction brea
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
BBC has a good audio series on this: https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/w13xtvt4 Granted, it's a bit drawn out, but certainly is a memorable story that perfectly encapsulates speculative behavior at every level.
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
Quite conversely, if your equity portfolio is going up tens of thousands of percent yearly, that's when you should be sounding the alarm...
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
You are being mindful of some real risks and concerns. That said, there's no reason to have to feel like you need to take a stab at it totally by yourself. Heck, that's what I'm doing in the day to day - putting together a fe
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
The global financial system has gone through successive iterations, each somewhat distinct from the previous version. Ex: post ww2 Bretton Woods to the aptly named "Bretton Woods II" post 1970 gold standard break. The current iter
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
That's a severe oversimplification. The world isn't black and white. Take free speech, which has certain restrictions in most societies. Some societies draw the lines further than others. Likewise, when it comes to elections, the
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
The sweet nuclear summer glow from the back porch is an ambiance simply unequaled.
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
I agree, which is why it's plausible that there is a scenario where the bluff is called.
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
>why the heck is so much money pouring into the sector - including Tesla and Facebook The names you pulled out have Size factor in common, and with the modern market cap weighted index/futures dominated market, flows into Size facto
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
I'm not sure this is a plausible brink. The initial "tariff board" situation was 10 times more severe than this, and additionally this is a repeat of the same playbook. This won't be the start of (further) major decoupli
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
Semiconductor design pipeline software.
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
Baidu Apollo Go is conpletes millions of rides a year as well, with expansions into Europe in the Middle East. In China they've been active for a long time - during COVID they were making autonomous deliveries. It is odd how many peopl
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
Sure, but there's a difference in intent and degree between "foreign influence is manipulating our voters" via political content on TikTok vs a targeted state sponsored campaign run by intelligence agencies. There are some co
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
It raises taxes but arguably impacts GDP in a very direct and equal way, so it mostly nets out. The argument that follows from there would be that taxing the rich would have less of an impact on GDP.
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
The development of the Global financial system is an ongoing narrative though. It was never going to continue indefinitely. The modern euro dollar system is fairly new, spawned in the 70s. Before that you had a huge shift with the Sterling
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
A leading thesis in the macro space is that the general response to interest burden is for policy to naturally shift to financial repression, or using monetary tools and regulations to suppress real interest rates and devalue the debt stock
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
These sorts of outlooks are notoriously hard to predict. Paul Tudor Jones (one of the most successful investors of our time) is of the mindset that if anything we are about to see equity appreciation far in excess of what we have seen for d
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
The part that I think may have some credence is that it may be a way to prop up huge profit margins that may persist for longer than they would otherwise in lieu of further commoditization and competition. If NVIDIA has a stake in the compa
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
I would be convinced that he's some sort of super well calibrated financial article AI engine (due to consistency of output and breadth of coverage), except that I've been reading his column long before LLMs were on the scene.
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by Fade_Dance 1y ago
It may affect them. I stand by that. Since this is hackernews, I'd imagine there are a decent amount of people with low float tech stocks. Those things can be impressively squirrely. I've moved a billion dollar company 5% with a $

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